20151224-NATIXIS-The_drastic_effects_of_the_global_shift_to_a_services_economy_are_yet_to_be_entirely_understood_12页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of FLASH ECONOMICS: The Drastic Effects of the Global Shift to a Services Economy

Core Content

The document discusses the significant and far-reaching consequences of the global shift towards a services-based economy over the past decade. This transition, which was not anticipated, has led to a number of economic and financial market changes, including the decline in industrial production and commodity prices, the weakening of global trade, and the polarisation of labour markets.

Main Points

1. Global Shift to a Services Economy

The global economy has transitioned rapidly from industry to services since the 2008 crisis.
This shift has resulted in excess production capacity in industrial goods and commodities.
It has weakened global trade, especially for countries reliant on exports such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, and Germany.
Regional economic cycles are decoupling, affecting monetary policies, interest rates, and financial markets.

2. Effects on Industrial and Commodity Prices

Excess industrial capacity is causing a slowdown in industrial prices.
Commodity prices are declining due to oversupply, particularly in sectors like oil, steel, and iron ore.
This trend is long-term and difficult to reverse due to the inertia of capital stock.

3. Impact on Labour Markets

Labour markets are polarising, with a growing demand for low-skilled, low-wage service jobs and high-skilled, high-income service jobs.
Wage growth is weak, even when unemployment is low, due to the lack of union representation and job protection in service sectors.
This leads to wider inequality and increased political risk, as shown in the US income quintile data (Table 1).

4. Financial Market Consequences

Low inflation persists, leading to expansionary monetary policies throughout the expansion phase.
Corporate profitability is rising due to weak wage growth and reduced investment needs.
Accumulation of corporate cash reserves is driving M&A activity, share buybacks, and dividend increases.

Key Information

Excess capacity in industry leads to declining prices and investment.
Service-based growth is not correlated with goods-based growth, which weakens global trade.
Decoupling of regional economic cycles results in asynchronous monetary policies and exchange rate volatility.
Wage stagnation in services leads to low inflation, weak wage bargaining power, and persistent monetary stimulus.
Corporate profits are increasing, which results in high cash reserves and financial market activity such as M&A and share buybacks.

Summary of Charts and Data

Chart 1: Shows the global shift to a services economy based on real GDP growth and manufacturing production.
Charts 2A–E: Highlight the service sector growth compared to industrial production in the US, UK, Japan, and other regions.
Chart 3A: Demonstrates the decline in industrial prices due to excess capacity.
Chart 3B: Shows the decline in investment in the industrial sector.
Charts 4A and B: Illustrate commodity overproduction in the global economy, especially in oil and steel.
Charts 5A and B: Depict the fall in commodity prices, including fossil fuels and non-precious metals.
Charts 6A–C: Show industrial concentration in regions with lower labour costs, such as South Asia, Central Europe, and Spain.
Chart 7: Compares goods exports and service exports, showing that goods trade is larger.
Chart 8: Demonstrates the weakening of global trade.
Charts 9A and B: Highlight the decline in exports for export-led economies.
Chart 10A–E: Illustrate the decoupling of economic cycles, interest rates, financial markets, and exchange rates.
Chart 11: Shows the concentration of service jobs in the low-skilled segment in the US.
Charts 13A–C: Depict weak wage growth, middle-class stagnation, and low inflation.
Chart 14: Highlights expansionary monetary policies due to low inflation.
Chart 15A–E: Illustrate corporate profitability, investment and self-financing rates, and M&A activity, share buybacks, and dividend trends.

Conclusion

The shift to a services economy has drastic effects on various economic aspects, including industrial production, commodity prices, global trade, and financial markets. It has led to increased inequality, low wage growth, low inflation, and corporate profit accumulation, which in turn have influenced monetary policies and market dynamics. These changes are ongoing and complex, requiring careful monitoring and analysis by qualified investors and professionals.