美国发布中国军力报告：2030年将有千枚核弹（全英文）-美国国防部-2021-192页_3mb

2021 Annual Report on Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China (PRC)

Core Content

This report outlines the military and security developments of the PRC up to the end of 2020, focusing on its national strategy, defense policy, military modernization, and global military presence. It also details the U.S.-PRC defense engagements and the implications of these developments for international security.

Main Views and Key Information

China's National Strategy

• The PRC's long-term goal is to achieve "the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" by 2049, aiming to match or surpass U.S. global influence and power.
• This strategy is centered on expanding national power through economic, diplomatic, military, and technological means.
• The "dual circulation" economic model, introduced in 2020, emphasizes domestic consumption and high-end manufacturing, while also supporting technological breakthroughs and foreign investment in key sectors.
• The PRC views the U.S. as a strategic competitor and sees ideological and systemic differences as a key aspect of its rivalry with the West.

Military Strategy and Modernization

• The PLA's modernization is a critical component of the PRC's national strategy, with two key milestones: "basic completion" by 2035 and "world-class" status by 2049.
• In 2020, the PLA added a 2027 milestone to accelerate the integration of mechanization, informatization, and intelligentization.
• The Chinese People's Liberation Army Joint Operations Outline (trial) was issued in November 2020, serving as a top-level doctrine for joint operations, combat support, and national defense mobilization.

PLA's Capabilities and Force Structure

• The PLA has approximately 2 million regular forces and is modernizing its capabilities across all warfare domains: land, air, maritime, space, counterspace, electronic warfare, and cyber operations.
• The PLA Army (PLAA) has ~975,000 active-duty personnel and continues to improve training and equipment fielding.
• The PLA Navy (PLAN) is the world's largest navy, with ~355 ships and submarines and over 145 major surface combatants. It is enhancing its long-range precision strike and anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities.
• The PLA Air Force (PLAAF) and PLAN Aviation together have over 2,800 aircraft, with ~2,250 combat aircraft. The H-6N is the first nuclear-capable air-to-air refuelable bomber.
• The PLA Rocket Force (PLARF) is expanding its nuclear and conventional missile capabilities, including the development of new ICBMs, road-mobile DF-26 IRBMs, and the DF-17 hypersonic weapon.
• The PLA Strategic Support Force (SSF) oversees space, cyber, and electronic warfare operations, and is developing counterspace capabilities.

Nuclear Capabilities

• The PRC is modernizing, diversifying, and expanding its nuclear forces, with a goal of having up to 700 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2027 and at least 1,000 by 2030.
• It is developing a nuclear triad with land, sea, and air-based platforms, and is moving toward a launch-on-warning (LOW) posture for nuclear readiness.
• The PRC is investing in fast breeder reactors and reprocessing facilities to increase nuclear warhead production capacity.

Global Military Presence

• The PRC seeks to project power globally to secure its overseas interests and advance its foreign policy goals.
• The PLA has been normalizing its presence overseas, including military aid during the pandemic, and is building logistics and basing infrastructure in countries such as Cambodia, Myanmar, and Djibouti.
• A global military logistics network and military facilities could interfere with U.S. operations and support offensive operations against the U.S.

Influence Operations

• The PRC engages in influence operations targeting U.S. cultural, media, business, academic, and policy communities.
• The PLA has emphasized the "Three Warfares" concept: psychological warfare, public opinion warfare, and legal warfare, using AI to improve the quality and deniability of its messaging.

Resources and Technology for Modernization

• The PRC is pursuing self-reliance in defense technology, with a focus on indigenous innovation and military-civil fusion (MCF).
• The MCF strategy includes fusing defense and civilian industries, leveraging technology innovation, cultivating talent, and enhancing national defense mobilization.
• The PRC's military budget increased by 6.8% in 2021, continuing a 20-year trend of rising defense spending and maintaining its position as the second-largest military spender.
• The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes technological independence and innovation in key sectors such as AI, quantum computing, and biotechnology.

U.S.-PRC Defense Contacts and Exchanges

• In 2020, defense relations prioritized crisis prevention, risk reduction, and limited cooperation in areas of mutual interest.
• The Policy Dialogue System was used to build a stable and constructive defense relationship with the PLA.
• These exchanges aimed to prevent and manage crises and reduce operational risks.

Key Special Topics

• PRC's Effective Control Concept and PLA Escalation Management Views: The PRC is developing a framework to control escalation and manage conflict, emphasizing military deterrence and strategic control.
• PRC's Evaluation of the 13th Five-Year Plan: The 13th Five-Year Plan laid the groundwork for the 2027 modernization milestone, focusing on system integration and intelligent warfare.
• PRC-India Border Standoff: The PRC has shown a willingness to use military coercion in territorial disputes, particularly with India.
• Appendices
  • Appendix I: PRC and Taiwan forces data.
  • Appendix II: Defense contacts and exchanges.
  • Appendix III: PLA bilateral and multilateral exercises in 2020.
  • Appendix IV: China's top crude oil suppliers in 2020.
  • Appendix V: Acronyms.

Conclusion

The report underscores the militarization of China's global ambitions and the integrated approach of the PRC's national strategy, which includes economic, technological, and military components. It highlights the PLA's growing capabilities, its modernization goals, and the increased assertiveness of the PRC in international affairs. The U.S. is advised to monitor and engage with the PRC to manage the strategic competition and pacing challenge it presents.