2025-06-03-Bernstein-阿尔斯通公司（ALO）_阿尔斯通_不披露利润率是自我破坏行为吗_30页_1mb

Alstom (ALO.FP) Investment Analysis Summary

Rating: Market-Perform
Price Target: €24.00 (+23% Upside)
Target Date: 3 June 2025
Analyst: Nicholas J. Green

Key Points

1. Margin Concerns:

   • Alstom's actual adjusted gross margin was 14.1% (actual) vs. a projected 18% indicated by prior guidance.
   • A ~390 basis points gap exists, attributed mainly to contract margin issues rather than legacy problems.
   • "Industrial inefficiencies" is deemed an oxymoron; the primary issue is lower-than-expected contract margins on a larger cost base.

2. Investment Thesis:

   • The investment case hinges on margin recovery trust.
   • Management's reluctance to disclose underlying profitability (by business division) is considered self-sabotage, potentially precluding informed investment decisions.
   • The stock is highly sensitive to free cash flow (FCF) until margin transparency is improved.

3. Guidance & Projections:

   • CEO step-down by March 2027 is noted but doesn’t alter the criticism.
   • Management guides for 100bps margin improvement per year in the next two years, achievable only through targeted cost rationalization.

Dividend Policy

• Dividend yield is steady at around 3.0%; company maintains a sustainable payout.

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This summary reflects solely the management’s implied guidance and positions contrary thereto don’t stem directly from management communications. This analysis does not purport to be an exhaustive assessment of all risks or factors influencing Alstom’s valuation or financial performance. Such forward-looking statements are inherently subject to a high degree of uncertainty and numerous factors. (Disclaimer: Investment involves significant risks; this is not advice to buy). Please refer to the full report for disclosures and methodologies.