20230724-招银国际-2023_investor_day__commercialization_and_content_ecosystem_drive_business_growth_4页_893kb

Bilibili's 2023 Investor Day focused on driving business growth through commercialization and a healthy content ecosystem. Key strategies include expanding ad inventory and enhancing e-commerce, with a 200% YoY ad consumption increase during 618. The games division targets top-tier titles with long life cycles and global potential, while live streaming integrates with PUGV and explores high-monetization genres like chat rooms and virtual broadcasters. AI initiatives aim to improve user experience, search capabilities, and content efficiency. The report maintains a BUY rating with a target price of US$27.20, projecting sustainable growth and breakeven by FY24, supported by improving monetization and a CAGR outlook. Financially, revenue is expected to grow steadily, with reductions in P/S ratio and improved profitability metrics, though challenges remain in cost management.

Executive Summary:

• Bilibili emphasized dual drivers: healthy content ecosystem development and commercialization.
• Key initiatives: ad expansion, game focus on global launches, live streaming integration, and AI enhancements.
• Maintain BUY rating; target price US$27.20 (75.9% upside).
• Projected revenue CAGR and breakeven by FY24.

Business Strategies:

• Ads: Increase ad inventory via new scenarios and dynamic load techniques; improve e-commerce ecosystem, leading to high ad/VAS revenue growth.
• Games: Develop top-tier mobile games with long life cycles; launch licensed and self-developed titles in genres like ACG and female-oriented games.
• Live Streaming: Further integrate with PUGV; enrich content categories for higher user penetration and monetization.
• AI: Enhance search, user experience, and content creation tools; boost ad recommendations and game development.

Financial Outlook:

• Revenue expected to grow at varying rates: 10.3% CAGR in specific segments.
• Current P/S ratio: 2.4x, decreasing to 1.6x by FY25E.
• Adjusted net profit improvement to reach positive EPS by FY25E.
• Breakeven target set for FY24.

Monetization and Growth:

• Ad and VAS revenue projected with strong CAGR growth.
• Enhanced e-commerce and AI expected to drive efficiency gains.

Investment Recommendation:

• Maintain BUY; target price US$27.20.
• Upbeat on improving monetization trajectory.

Disclaimer: Past performance not indicative of future results; subject to market risks.