国际商会国际仲裁院-国家和区域分析强调了WTO改革的紧迫性（英）_20页_4mb

Report Summary: Impact of WTO Dissolution on Developing Economies

Executive Summary

The report, commissioned by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), assesses the economic impact of WTO dissolution on developing economies (middle-income and low-income countries), with a conservative scenario showing substantial negative repercussions. It concludes that even a best-case scenario for dissolution would lead to reduced trade, investment, and productivity levels, ultimately harming long-term growth and development. Key findings highlight a direct trade impact, including a roughly 33% reduction in exports by 2030 for developing countries compared to a status quo baseline, and a projected 5.1% long-term GDP loss.

Modelling Assumptions

The analysis employs a conservative scenario for WTO dissolution, characterized by increased trade costs from uncertainty and protectionism, particularly between non-member country pairs without existing free trade agreements (FTAs). The model limits direct impacts to non-fuel goods and assumes gradual, permanent effects over several years. It incorporates gravity models and input from academic literature to calibrate impacts on trade, FDI, and productivity.

Economic Impact Results

• Trade Flows: WTO dissolution is projected to reduce exports of non-fuel goods in developing countries by 33% by 2030, with low-income countries facing a 43% decline. Factors include loss of market access, preferential treatment for Least Developed Countries (LDCs), and higher information costs. Regional disparities show severe impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, with reduced resilience in developing economies compared to high-income ones.
• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Absence of the WTO reduces FDI inflows to developing countries by approximately 5% by 2030, with larger impacts in regions highly exposed to trade disruptions.
• Productivity Levels: Productivity is estimated to decrease by around 3% across developing countries, due to reduced trade and FDI, amplifying setbacks in vulnerable regions.
• GDP Impact: Developing countries stand to lose an aggregate 5.1% of long-term annual GDP by 2030, with Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia experiencing losses of up to 6-6.5%. This slows convergence with developed nations and exacerbates supply chain vulnerabilities in developed countries during crises.

Methodology

The analysis uses the Oxford Economics Global Economic Model, calibrated with gravity models and empirical evidence from literature, to isolate pure WTO effects from other influences. It encompasses long-term structural impacts and accounts for global interdependencies. No existing studies benchmark these estimates, as the dissolution scenario represents unprecedented analysis.