20241213-联合资信-新型储能对新能源发电企业的影响浅析_盈尺_储_瑞_载涂_兆_丰_12页_1mb

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wwwlhratingscom Research Report 1: "Storing Abundance, Harvesting Prosperity" - An Analysis of the Impact of New Energy Storage on New Energy Power Generation Enterprises

Recently, China's new energy installed capacity has expanded rapidly. To alleviate the stability pressure of the power grid's transmission and distribution and address the serious curtailment of new energy, policy orientation has gradually increased the requirements for storage construction. However, due to the lack of market trading systems for storage and the implementation of charging and discharging schedules, most single storage projects are currently operating at a loss. That is, the current allocated storage indicators are increasing the construction costs of new energy power generation enterprises.

In the long term, once new energy storage projects can fully participate in market transactions and comply fully with grid dispatch requirements, they will help reduce curtailment of new energy projects, increase overall new energy project generation (when storage projects are utilized), or indirectly raise the上网电价 for the project (through positive returns from the storage project). Independent storage projects can also generate positive returns through peak and valley price differences, capacity leasing, and capacity compensation. "Equipping with effective energy storage" can mitigate the credit risk of new energy power generation enterprises to some extent.

wwwlhratingscom Research Report 1 Part 1: The Significance of New Energy Storage in the Context of a New Power System

Since the introduction of the "dual carbon" policy, China's energy structure transformation has accelerated, with renewable energy generation, represented by wind and solar power, showing rapid growth. According to data from the National Energy Administration, as of the end of 2023, China's solar and wind power installed capacity reached 610 GW and 440 GW respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 55.2% and 20.7%. The share of clean energy in China's total installed power capacity reached 58.2%, becoming a significant source of electricity consumption.

After entering 2024, China's GDP growth has slowed, and to drive stable economic growth, investment in new energy such as wind and solar power has become one of the main drivers for achieving GDP growth targets. With the 95%消纳红线 no longer acting as a barrier to the rapid development of new energy, China's installed capacity of new energy will continue to grow rapidly. Future, clean energy is expected to become the dominant power source.

However, due to the randomness and volatility of wind and solar power generation, the regulation capability of the power system faces greater demands. Additionally, delays in grid investment and construction in some areas, coupled with insufficient ultra-high voltage transmission channels, have caused issues with the integration of large-scale wind and solar bases, exposing China's power consumption problems.

To ensure power system stability and support the green transition, energy storage has emerged as the best choice to enhance the efficiency of new energy power plants, reduce wind and solar curtailment, and maintain grid safety. On August 6, 2024, the National Development and Reform Commission and two other departments issued the "Action Plan for Accelerating the Construction of a New Power System (2024-2027)", which explicitly proposed that "source-network-load-storage" synergy can effectively improve the stability of the power system and achieve dynamic balance in power supply and demand, making the energy storage system a key component in building a new power system.

1 The Role of New Energy Storage

New energy storage refers to all storage forms except pumped hydro storage. Due to resource constraints and longer construction cycles, pumped hydro storage has limited growth potential. With the rapid expansion of wind and solar power generation capacity, new energy storage, as a crucial flexible调节 resource, has become a vital support for building a power system centered on new energy.

In the "source-network-load-storage" new power system, new energy storage systems can play roles in the power generation side, the grid side, and the load side.

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Chart 1 Application Scenarios of New Energy Storage

From the power generation side: Wind and solar power outputs are unstable due to factors like wind speed changes, sunlight intensity, etc. Power generation side integrated storage can ensure the economical operation of new energy. When wind and solar conditions are good, excess electricity can be stored and used to reduce curtailment. When sunlight is insufficient or wind speeds are low, stored electricity can be fed into the grid to improve new energy consumption and smooth out power output from power plants.

Many provinces in China have already introduced policies requiring a certain proportion of energy storage for new energy projects. For example, the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region requires that the energy storage capacity for newly built market-oriented grid-connected new energy projects accounts for at least 15% of their installed capacity with a storage duration of more than 4 hours. For newly built guaranteed grid-connected new energy projects, the requirement is at least 15% of the installed capacity with a storage duration of more than 2 hours.

Chapter 2 Current Development Status of New Energy Storage in China

New energy storage has emerged as a support industry for new energy generation activities, with its overall development starting later. Since 2021, with the rapid growth of wind and solar power generation capacity, demand for new energy storage has increased significantly, and with continuous policy support and technological advancements, China's new energy storage industry has shown explosive growth.

As of the end of 2023, China's new energy storage added capacity was about 22.6 GW/4.87 GWh, a growth of over 260% compared to the end of 2022, which is about ten times the scale of new energy storage at the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" period. By the end of 2023, the cumulative operating capacity of new energy storage projects nationwide reached 31.39 GW/6.687 GWh, an average storage duration of 21 hours, making China the world's largest energy storage market and provider of storage products. By September 2024, China's new energy storage capacity had further expanded to 58.52 GW/12.8 GWh, a significant increase of about 86% from the end of 2023.

Since Qinghai Province first proposed mandatory energy storage requirements for wind power projects in 2017, China's policies on new energy storage have intensified, with a series of guiding policies issued, including "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Development of New Energy Storage", "Schemes for the Development of New Energy Storage during the 14th Five-Year Plan", etc., guiding and regulating various aspects of new energy storage development, including development paths and improving effective utilization rates.

iii Impact Assessment of Forced Energy Storage

• Comprehensive
• Detailed criteria based on energy generation and grid capacity
• Actual
• In

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2 Forced Energy Storage Profit Analysis

Using a new energy project in Xinjiang as an example, the report makes the following basic assumptions: capacity of 100 MW, forced storage ratio of 20% with a 2-hour discharge time, average daily charge-discharge times of 0.3 to 0.5 times, converted to 0.5 times for 2-hour storage, charging and discharging efficiency of 92%, depth of discharge of 90%, electricity price level of 0.25 yuan/kWh, full-year operation days of 360, battery life of about 10 years, EPC unit cost of 1.5 yuan/kWh, and so on. Calculations show that the storage project can increase the machine's annual utilization hours by 36. With daily discharges of 0.25 times, the project has an annual income of approximately 7.5 million yuan. The fixed cost is mainly depreciation fees, stable annually. Profitability can be achieved with daily discharges of 0.21 times.

3 Independent Energy Storage Profit Analysis

Similarly, the report analyzes an independent energy storage project in Xinjiang, calculating revenues from electricity market income (including peak-valley price difference), capacity compensation, and leasing income. Case study shows the project can achieve profitability with daily discharges of 1.1 times. Capacity compensation mechanisms can reduce initial costs, but this support is expected to expire by 2026.

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Seven Main Problems Facing China's New Energy Storage Industry

Despite rapid growth in new energy storage scale, several key issues remain:

1. Pricing Mechanism Imperfections: Policy lag means market mechanisms and global technological advantages don't align, affecting enterprise stability.
2. Low Utilization Rates: Frequency statistics show grid-side storage average utilization rates at 24%, well below potential.
3. Safety Risks: Battery thermal runaway risks increase with low industry entry barriers and price competition.

Conclusion

While increasing storage temporarily raises costs, full market integration promises long-term economic benefits. Control measures include optimizing cost structures, improving grid dispatch efficiency, and strengthening quality standards and safety protocols.

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Disclaimer

This report is the intellectual property of United Ratings Co., Ltd. and cannot be reproduced or distributed without written permission.引
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"储"瑞，载"兆"丰——新型储能对新能源发电企业的影响浅析

一、新型储能的背景与意义

近年来，中国新能源装机容量快速扩张，为缓解电网压力和新能源限电问题，政策加强了储能建设要求。但由于市场交易制度和调度机制尚不完善，当前储能项目多处于亏损状态，增加了新能源发电企业的建设成本。但从长远看，新型储能将有助于减少弃风弃光、提升发电量或变相提高上网电价，并降低企业的信用风险。

风电、光伏等新能源具有随机性和波动性，对电力系统的调节能力提出更高要求。为保障能源安全与绿色转型，储能成为提升新能源电站效率、保障电网稳定性的关键选择。

二、新型储能的盈利模式

• 电力市场收入：通过峰谷价差套利
• 容量补偿：部分省份提供容量补偿机制
• 容量租赁：解决自建成本高的问题，短期降低成本租赁获得正收益
• 辅助服务：参与系统调峰、调频等辅助服务获取补偿

三、新型储能对企业的影响

• 强制配储项目：增加建设成本，需提高调用效率方能盈利
• 独立储能项目：可通过交易、租赁等方式获得正收益

四、存在问题

• 价格形成机制不完善：缺乏统一标准，影响收益确定性
• 实际利用率低：年均运行小时不足，投资回报低
• 安全风险高：电化学储能存在热失控风险，行业标准缺失加剧安全隐患

五、总结与建议

短期内，增加储能指标会提高企业成本，但长期来看，随着储能项目参与市场交易和调度效率的提升，将有助于提高新能源发电企业经济效益。

对储能项目而言，控制建造成本和保障有效充放电量是关键：

1. 控制建造成本：电池成本受锂价影响大，当前锂价低，预计维持低水平。
2. 提高利用效率：完善容量机制与市场规则，降低调度门槛。
3. 加强管理与安全：建立标准促进规范化发展，防范安全风险。

注：本报告基于原报告内容进行摘要，未包含具体数据和详细分析过程。