> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Outlook for Advertising, Marketing and Data 2026: Summary ## Core Content Winterberry Group provides an outlook on the advertising, marketing, and data landscape for 2026, highlighting the ongoing transformation driven by AI, digital trends, and macroeconomic stability. The report outlines key trends, market performance, and M&A activity across the industry. ## Main Points - **2025 Recap**: The year was marked by tariff shocks, moderate inflation, and the impact of AI, but macroeconomic conditions remained stable. Marketing spend growth normalized closer to historical GDP ratios, with digital driving growth and offline spending declining. - **Channel Shifts**: Marketing spend moved between channels, with online spending increasing significantly and offline spending showing signs of recovery in 2026, led by linear TV and experiential formats. - **M&A Trends**: 2025 saw a surge in M&A activity, with financial sponsors dominating deal volume. Major acquisitions include brands like Publicis Groupe, OmnicomMediaGroup, and R/GA, while challenger networks and independents are also adapting through technology investment. - **AI Integration**: AI is central to the transformation, with agentic solutions becoming more prominent. However, challenges such as data readiness, organizational silos, and measurement complexity persist. - **Search Evolution**: Search marketing is shifting from SEO/SEM to GEO and AEO, driven by AI-powered search engines. This change is reshaping how brands approach content optimization and ad placement. - **Creative Intelligence**: The integration of media, audience, and creative intelligence is critical for enhancing marketing effectiveness. Creative Intelligence solutions include asset ingestion, performance analytics, data conversion, activation, pre-testing, and measurement. - **Pricing Models**: Pricing for creative intelligence is fragmented but is expected to converge towards retainer plus a percentage of media spend. This reflects a shift from fixed costs to performance-linked investments. - **Macro Trends**: US GDP growth is projected to rise to 2.3%, with inflation remaining slightly above target. Political advertising is expected to boost headline growth to 9.4%. ## Key Information ### Marketing Spend Growth (2020 - 2025E) | Year | US Marketing and Advertising Spend Growth (%) | US GDP Growth (%) | Benchmark: 2x US GDP Growth (%) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | 2020 | -4.3 | -2.2 | -2.2 | | 2021 | 21.9 | 6.1 | 6.1 | | 2022 | 9.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | | 2023 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | | 2024 | 11.0 | 2.7 | 2.7 | | 2025 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | ### US Offline Marketing Spend (2022 - 2025E) | Year | Offline Marketing Spend ($) | YoY Growth (%) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | 2022 | 217.2 | - | | 2023 | 207.6 | - | | 2024 | 219.5 | - | | 2025 | 211.6 | - | ### US Online Marketing Spend (2022 - 2025E) | Year | Online Marketing Spend ($) | YoY Growth (%) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | 2022 | 281.3 | - | | 2023 | 310.9 | - | | 2024 | 356.3 | - | | 2025 | 395.7 | - | ### US Marketing Spend Forecast (2022 - 2026P) | Year | Spend ($BB) | YoY Growth (%) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | 2022 | 498.5 | 4.0% | | 2023 | 518.5 | 11.0% | | 2024 | 575.7 | 5.5% | | 2025 | 607.3 | 9.4% | | 2026P | 664.2 | - | ### 2025 M&A Highlights - **Media**: 454 transactions (23% of total) - **Agency & Marketing Services**: 356 transactions (16% of total) - **E-Commerce**: 201 transactions (10.6% of total) - **Digital Advertising**: 141 transactions (6.6% of total) - **Marketing Tech**: 884 transactions (43.8% of total) **Buyer Distribution**: - **Financial Sponsors**: 58% of total transaction volume - **Strategic Buyers**: 42% of total transaction volume ### 2025 Notable Deals - **Publicis Groupe** acquired **captiv8** for \$150MM - **OmnicomMediaGroup** acquired **IPG** for \$13.5B - **Alliant** acquired **AnalyticsIQ** - **ZETA** acquired **MARIGOLD** for \$100MM - **QVIA™** acquired **THROTLLE** for \$60MM - **NOVACAP** privatized **IAS** for \$1.9BB - **Advent** acquired **PatientPoint** - **VITRUVIAN Partners** acquired **deepintent+** for \$637MM ### AI and Agentic Adoption - AI investments focused on agentic solutions, particularly in creative production and media. - Data layer organization and creative asset management are prerequisites for AI deployment. - Agentic AI adoption is forcing agencies to restructure and move toward platform models. ### Offline Spend Recovery in 2026 - Linear TV and experiential marketing are expected to lead the recovery in offline spend. - Experiential, sponsorship, and shopper marketing show strong growth in 2025. ### Creative Intelligence Capabilities - **Creative Asset Ingestion**: Centralized processing of creative formats. - **Creative Performance Analytics**: Insights and optimization based on performance data. - **Creative Data Conversion**: Structured metadata extraction and categorization. - **Activation and Optimization**: Omnichannel platforms for real-time or post-campaign adjustments. - **Pre-Test**: Testing creative assets with real or synthetic audiences. - **Measurement**: Internal or external analysis for asset and campaign performance. ### Barriers to Adoption - **Organizational Silos**: Disconnect between creative development and audience data. - **Structural and Operational Gaps**: Scaling creative intelligence is hindered by outdated models. - **Agency Model Challenges**: Conflicting incentives and resistance from creative agencies. - **Technology & Ecosystem Gaps**: Lack of central ownership, walled gardens, and open web standardization. - **Lack of Standardized Measurement Frameworks**: Makes creative impact hard to measure and defend. ## Conclusion 2026 is expected to be a year of greater visibility and growth, driven by AI integration, digital transformation, and the repositioning of marketing spend. The industry is moving toward more performance-linked investments and the adoption of agentic solutions, with a focus on efficiency and measurable outcomes. The path to success will require overcoming current silos and fragmentation, as well as developing new talent pipelines and measurement standards.