2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Growth_Surprises_and_Synchronized_Slowdowns_in_Emerging_Markets––An_Empirical_Investigation_24页_905kb

Summary of "Growth Surprises and Synchronized Slowdowns in Emerging Markets—An Empirical Investigation"

Core Content

This paper investigates the main drivers of growth surprises and synchronized slowdowns in emerging markets (EMs) following the global financial crisis (GFC). It focuses on the period from 2011 to 2013, during which many EMs experienced unanticipated economic deceleration despite not being in a crisis.

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Main Views

1. External Factors: Trading Partner Demand

• Lower trading partner demand was identified as a key external factor behind the growth slowdowns in EMs during 2011–13.
• Growth surprises in EMs were positively correlated with growth surprises in their trading partners, particularly advanced economies.
• The contribution of China's growth surprises was also significant, indicating its growing role as a trade destination.
• Terms of trade surprises were positive and statistically significant, suggesting that improvements in trade conditions had a supportive effect on growth.
• Global volatility (VIX) showed a positive correlation with growth surprises, implying that increased global risk aversion may have led to unexpected growth outcomes.

2. Domestic Factors: Fiscal Policy and Structural Bottlenecks

• Fiscal consolidation played a role, though the sign was negative and not statistically significant in most models.
• The withdrawal of fiscal stimulus after the Lehman collapse contributed to the slowdown, compounding the effects of weaker external demand.
• Structural bottlenecks were found to be a partial explanation for the slowdowns, as reflected in larger residuals in regression estimates for certain countries.
• Initial conditions, such as the output gap in 2010, were found to be statistically significant, indicating that countries with a positive output gap had negative growth surprises in subsequent years.

3. Synchronized Slowdowns

• The slowdown was widespread, with over 85% of EMs experiencing synchronized deceleration by 2012Q3.
• This was unexpected by scholars and forecasters, as it occurred during a non-crisis period.
• The duration of the slowdown was longer than previous synchronized slowdowns, with over 60% of EMs decelerating for almost two years.
• The V-shaped recovery in 2009–2010 was followed by a second wave of slowdowns, suggesting a lagged effect of the GFC.

4. Regional Variations

• Emerging Asia was the first region to experience a slowdown, with 90% of countries affected in early 2011.
• Middle East and South Africa saw slowdowns by the end of 2011.
• Latin America and EM Europe followed in late 2012–early 2013.
• Output gaps varied significantly by region, with European EMs showing the highest gap volatility.

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Key Information

Data and Methodology

• The study uses panel data for 60 EMs from 2011 to 2013.
• Growth surprises are defined as the difference between actual and projected real GDP growth.
• Regression models are used to estimate the contributions of external and domestic factors to growth surprises.
• Robustness tests include interactions with commodity exports and the use of residual trading partners' growth surprises.

Findings

• External demand (especially from trading partners) was the main driver of growth surprises.
• China's growth had a significant impact on EMs, with its residual growth surprise playing a notable role.
• Fiscal policy had a negative but non-significant effect.
• Output gap in 2010 was the only statistically significant domestic factor.
• Global volatility (VIX) had a positive and significant impact on growth surprises.

Policy Implications

• The slowdown was not just a short-term shock, but may signal a longer-term trend of lower growth potential.
• Structural reforms and macroeconomic policy adjustments are critical to addressing pending vulnerabilities.
• Country heterogeneity is a key factor in the synchronized slowdowns, with different responses observed across regions.

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Structure

I. Introduction

• Highlights the unusual synchronized slowdowns in EMs since 2011.
• Notes that this was unexpected and not crisis-related.
• Outlines the objective of the paper: to identify the drivers of growth surprises and slowdowns.

II. Literature Review

• Reviews existing literature on EM slowdowns.
• Emphasizes the importance of external conditions and domestic policy.
• Notes the role of structural factors and fiscal space in previous recovery episodes.

III. Growth Momentum

• Describes the V-shaped recovery of EMs post-GFC.
• Highlights the heterogeneity in recovery across regions.
• Discusses the incidence of slowdowns and the duration of the post-GFC slowdowns compared to previous episodes.

IV. Estimating Growth Surprises

• Defines growth surprises and the model specification.
• Uses panel OLS regression with robust standard errors.
• Includes external factors (trading partners, terms of trade, VIX) and domestic factors (fiscal policy, output gap).

V. Explaining Synchronized Slowdowns

• Uses a more comprehensive model to explain the synchronized slowdown.
• Examines external conditions, domestic policies, and initial conditions.
• Highlights the importance of country-specific factors and structural bottlenecks.

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Conclusion

• The slowdowns were driven by external demand and fiscal policy.
• China's growth had a significant residual impact.
• The output gap in 2010 was a key domestic indicator.
• The synchronized nature of the slowdown suggests a systemic issue in EMs.
• Policy design should consider long-term growth potential and structural reforms to address the ongoing challenges.