2025-05-21-Bernstein-CTS_Eventim（EVD）_速览CTS_Eventim第一季度业绩由现场娱乐业务驱动_11页_451kb

CTS Eventim Summary

Core Content

CTS Eventim reported strong first-quarter results, with revenues of €498.6m, representing a 22% increase and exceeding consensus expectations. The performance was primarily driven by the Live Entertainment segment, which saw significant revenue growth. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter reached €100.3m, up 9%, with a margin of 20.1%. The company's YTD shares have risen by 36%, highlighting its resilience during economic downturns.

The company holds its first 1Q conference call on 21 May 2025, at 4pm UK time. For the full year, CTS Eventim expects moderate revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, with management indicating growth of 5-15%. Synergies from France Billet are also anticipated, though no specific numbers have been communicated.

The stock is currently rated Outperform with a price target of €104.00, based on a 50/50 combination of DCF and multiples-based SOTP valuation. The current closing price is €111.70, resulting in a -7% downside to the target. The 52-week range is between €114.10 and €73.00.

Key Financials

• Revenues (M€): 2,809 (2024A), 3,049 (2025E), 3,256 (2026E)
• Reported Net Income (M€): 350.56 (2024A), 391.06 (2025E), 429.65 (2026E)
• EBITDA (M€): 542.2 (2024A), 602.6 (2025E), 662.5 (2026E)
• Adjusted EPS (EUR): 3.50 (2024A), 3.76 (2025E), 4.16 (2026E)
• Reported P/E (x): 33.6 (2024A), 29.8 (2025E), 26.9 (2026E)
• Adjusted P/E (x): 31.9 (2024A), 29.7 (2025E), 26.8 (2026E)
• Market Cap (M€): 10,723
• EV (M€): 9,240

Main Points

• Live Entertainment is the main driver of revenue growth, with a 22% increase in Q1 2025 and a 20.1% margin.
• Ticketing segment saw a 17% revenue increase, with a 42% margin.
• Holding segment underperformed, with a 7% revenue increase and a 4% margin.
• Adj. EBITDA increased by 9% to €100.3m, but missed consensus by 6%.
• YTD performance is up 36.8%, making CTS Eventim one of the most recession-proof media names in the coverage.
• Outperform rating is reiterated based on supportive pricing, fan sale rollout, and M&A synergies.

Investment Implications

• The company is expected to maintain strong top-line growth through supportive pricing.
• Margin improvement is anticipated from the fan sale rollout.
• M&A activity is expected to drive synergies ahead of schedule.
• The €104.00 price target remains valid, based on a 50/50 DCF and multiples-based SOTP model.

Risks

• Succession risk: Founder and CEO K-P Schulenberg is over 70 years old.
• Price volatility: High concert ticket prices may suppress volumes.
• Governance risk: Potential deterioration in corporate governance.
• Market imperfections: Operating in an imperfect market may affect performance.

Valuation Methodology

• Price Target: €104.00, based on a 50/50 combination of DCF and multiples-based SOTP.
• DCF: Uses a WACC of 8.0% and a long-term growth rate of 3.0%.
• SOTP: Applies recent transaction multiples with premiums for size and market leadership.
• Discount: A small discount is applied to the Live Entertainment division due to its volatility compared to Ticketing.

Ratings Definitions

Bernstein Brand

• Outperform: Expected to outperform the market index by more than 15 pp.
• Market-Perform: Expected to perform in line with the market index to within ±15 pp.
• Underperform: Expected to underperform the market index by more than 15 pp.

Autonomous Brand

• Outperform (OP): Expected to outperform the relevant index by more than 10 pp.
• Neutral (N): Expected to perform in line with the market index to within ±10 pp.
• Underperform (UP): Expected to underperform the relevant index by more than 10 pp.

Distribution of Ratings

• Outperform: 51.76% (573 companies)
• Market-Perform: 34.96% (387 companies)
• Neutral: 17.31% (67 companies)
• Underperform: 13.28% (147 companies)

Legal and Regulatory Disclosures

• The report is prepared by an independent analyst under EU 596/2014 Market Abuse Regulation.
• The company is distributed by different entities in various regions, including:
  • United States: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC
  • Canada: Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited
  • UK: Bernstein Autonomous LLP
  • France: BSG France S.A.
  • Switzerland: Bernstein Autonomous LLP
  • India: Sanford C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited
  • Hong Kong: Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited
  • Singapore: Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited
  • Japan: Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK
• The report is not intended for retail investors in certain jurisdictions, including the People's Republic of China.
• There are no direct conflicts of interest with the subject company, and the analysts do not have financial interests in it.

Additional Information

• The report includes a price performance chart for the past year.
• Analysts are compensated based on their contributions to the research franchise, not on investment banking revenue.
• The document includes multiple disclosures regarding conflicts of interest and distribution restrictions.

Conclusion

CTS Eventim has delivered robust first-quarter results, with the Live Entertainment segment driving growth. The company's resilience in a recessionary environment has been noted, and the Outperform rating is maintained. The valuation model suggests the stock is currently trading below its target price, and the company is expected to benefit from supportive pricing, fan sales, and M&A activities. However, risks related to succession, market volatility, and governance remain.