2025-06-16-花旗集团-星座能源公司（CEG）_星座能源公司（CEG.N）_手机数据显示三里岛核电站重启进度提前_18页_591kb

Citigroup Research provides an analysis of Constellation Energy Corp (CEG) based on cell phone data, assessing the progress of the Three Mile Island (Crane) nuclear power plant restart. The analysis concludes that the restart is trending ahead of schedule, with Crane's visitor activity currently equivalent to Palisades (a plant ahead in the queue) as of 2024, suggesting potential early completion in 2027 or 2028. This is supported by data indicating a 116% year-over-year increase in daily visitors to Crane, averaging around 700, with labor costs estimated at $82 million annually during the restart phase. The plant's workforce operates primarily Monday through Thursday, and the younger demographic may reflect training efforts.

Implications include positive outcomes for CEG and PJM power reliability, but potential drawbacks for PJM power prices in the late 2020s. Citigroup assigns a Neutral/High Risk rating, citing risks such as delays, cost overruns, policy changes, and execution challenges related to the restart. The valuation includes a target price of $318, with expected total return of 7.7% and dividend yield of 0.5%. Overall, the restart's timeline shifts could impact CEG's financial outlook and PJM markets, with various commercial agreements, like the one with Microsoft, tied to the project.