2015年-世界发展银行全球_Regional_Imbalances_Horizontal_Inequalities_and_Violent_Conflicts___Insights_from_Four_West_African_Countries_79页_3mb

Summary of "Regional Imbalances, Horizontal Inequalities, and Violent Conflicts: Insights from Four West African Countries"

Core Content

This report by Arnim Langer and Frances Stewart from the World Bank examines the relationship between horizontal inequalities (HIs) and violent conflicts in four West African countries: Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Nigeria, and Mali. It highlights how HIs, which are inequalities among ethnic, religious, and regional groups, contribute to political instability and conflict, especially when they are perceived as unjust and persist over time.

Main Points

Horizontal Inequalities (HIs)

• HIs are defined as inequalities among groups (ethnic, religious, regional) rather than individuals or households.
• HIs are a multidimensional issue, encompassing political power, wealth, and cultural status recognition.
• HIs can lead to grievance and mobilization, especially when they are perceived as systemic and unjust.

Key Countries and Their Characteristics

• Ghana:

  • Four main ethnic groups (Akan, Mole-Dagbani, Ewe, Ga-Dangme) and a majority Christian population.
  • The north-south divide is significant, with the northern regions lagging behind in economic and social indicators.
  • Mole-Dagbani and Muslims are particularly disadvantaged in the north.
  • Despite some improvements since 1993, HIs remain severe, and perceptions of disadvantage are still high in the north.

• Côte d'Ivoire:

  • Five main ethnic groups (Akan, Voltaic, Krou, Northern Mandé, Southern Mandé).
  • Akan dominate the central and eastern regions, while Krou are concentrated in the southwest.
  • The north-south divide has historically been a source of conflict, with northern regions often feeling excluded from political and economic benefits.
  • Political instability has been driven by ethnic and regional tensions, particularly in the 1990s and early 2000s.

• Nigeria:

  • High economic dependence on oil, which constitutes over 70% of government revenue.
  • Ethnic and religious divisions have been significant, especially between Hausa-Fulani, Yoruba, and Igbo.
  • Violent conflicts have arisen from resource distribution, political exclusion, and religious tensions.
  • Northern regions have been historically marginalized, contributing to secessionist movements and religious-based violence.

• Mali:

  • Predominantly Muslim country, with a significant Tuareg population in the north.
  • Regional disparities have been a key driver of Tuareg rebellion and intercommunal violence.
  • Economic and political marginalization of the north has led to secessionist movements and violence aimed at regime change.

Key Information

Regional and Ethnic Overlap

• There is a strong overlap between region, ethnicity, and religion in all four countries.
• Ethnicity is often the primary mobilization factor in political conflicts, although religion and region also play a role.
• Regional inequalities are often a proxy for ethnic and religious inequalities, especially in the north.

Socioeconomic Inequalities

• The north in all four countries has consistently faced poverty, poor infrastructure, and low access to services.
• GDP per capita, poverty rates, and child mortality rates are significantly lower in the north compared to the south.
• Education and electricity access are also lower in the north, contributing to a perception of disadvantage.

Policy and Conflict

• Policies have not adequately addressed HIs in three of the four countries.
• Political exclusion has been a common feature, particularly in Côte d'Ivoire and Nigeria.
• The management of HIs has influenced the likelihood of conflict, with poorly managed HIs often leading to violence.

Perceptions of Inequality

• Perceptions of HIs are important in understanding the potential for conflict.
• In Ghana, northern regions correctly perceive their situation as worse, while Volta region residents have mismatched perceptions.
• In Côte d'Ivoire, perceptions of unfair treatment have decreased over time, indicating some improvement in the situation.

Policy Recommendations

• Governments should address HIs through inclusive policies and targeted development.
• Regional disparities need to be reduced to prevent mobilization for conflict.
• Ethnic and religious groups should be included in political processes to ensure equitable representation.
• Improving access to education, health, and infrastructure in marginalized regions is crucial for reducing tensions.

Conclusion

• HIs are a significant source of conflict in West Africa, especially when they are perceived as unjust.
• Regional and ethnic inequalities have historically contributed to political instability.
• Effective management of HIs is essential for promoting peace and stability in multiethnic developing countries.