20260213-招银国际-Structural_growth_story_remains_intact_6页_866kb

Hesai Group (HSAI US) Summary

Core Content

Hesai Group (HSAI US) is a leading company in the LiDAR industry, maintaining its market leadership in 2025 with a 40.94% market share in the forward-facing main LiDAR segment for pre-installed passenger cars in China, according to GGII. The firm continues to benefit from the rising demand for LiDAR products, and its expansion into robotics and industrial markets is expected to further increase its Total Addressable Market (TAM).

Key Growth Drivers

• Robust shipment growth: In 2025, Hesai shipped over 1.6 million LiDAR units, with approximately 1.4 million units for ADAS and over 200,000 units for robotics. In 4Q25E, the shipment volume reached over 610,000 units, up 175% YoY.
• Revamped product lines: The ATX and JT series are expected to drive significant growth, with 2.6 million units shipped in 2026E, representing 61% YoY growth.
• L3 adoption increase: The company anticipates a broader industry shift toward L3 adoption, which could lead to a "multi-radar" perception era, increasing the dollar amount per vehicle for LiDAR products.
• Capacity expansion: Hesai has doubled its annual production capacity from 2 million units in 2025 to 4 million units in 2026.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue growth: Expected to grow at a 43% CAGR from 2024 to 2027, with 2026E revenue estimated at RMB4.404 billion and 2027E revenue at RMB6.023 billion.
• Non-GAAP net profit growth: Projected to increase from RMB477 million in 2025E to RMB1,001 million in 2027E, with 37% YoY growth in 2026E.
• Earnings per share (EPS): Adjusted EPS is expected to rise from RMB3.38 in 2025E to RMB6.65 in 2027E.

Valuation & Target Price

• Target Price (TP): US$31.30 per ADS, based on a 7.5x 2026E PS multiple.
• Valuation Context: The target multiple is higher than the industry average of 4.1x, justified by Hesai's strong growth outlook and competitive advantages.
• Price Performance: The stock has shown a 26.8% 3-mth absolute return and is up 25.8% relative to the market.

Shareholding & Market Data

• Market Cap: US$3,543.4 million.
• Share Performance:
  • 1-mth: -4.8%
  • 3-mth: 26.8%
  • 6-mth: 7.7%
• Shareholding Structure:
  • Fermat Star Limited: 6.1%
  • Galbadia Limited: 5.9%

Key Catalysts for 2026E

• Design wins: Hesai has secured design wins from top 2 ADAS customers for all 2026 models, with 100% LiDAR adoption.
• High-end ETX LiDAR: Secured a design win with a top 3 domestic NEV automaker, and is set for mass production in late 2026 or early 2027.
• Capacity expansion: 4 million units of annual production capacity in 2026, up from 2 million in 2025.

Risks

1. Product defects and alternative technologies (e.g., camera-based systems) could reduce LiDAR adoption.
2. Slower-than-expected LiDAR/ADAS penetration.
3. Increased competition and potential price wars could affect the average selling price (ASP).
4. Higher operating expenses may hinder margin expansion.

Analyst Ratings

• CMBIGM Rating: BUY.
• Target Price: US$31.30 (up from US$26.70).
• Potential Upside: 24.8% from current price (US$25.09).

Competitor Comparison (Comps Table)

Summary of Key Financial Metrics

Key Financial Ratios

Summary of Cash Flow

Conclusion

Hesai Group is well-positioned for continued growth, supported by strong demand in the LiDAR market, design wins, and product innovations. The company's expansion into robotics and industrial applications, along with increased production capacity, is expected to drive revenue and earnings growth. Despite potential risks, the firm's BUY rating reflects confidence in its future performance and potential for significant returns.