20260213-招银国际-Structural_growth_story_remains_intact_6页_866kb

> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Hesai Group (HSAI US) # Structural growth story remains intact We reiterate our positive view on Hesai Group (Hesai). The Company maintained industry leadership in 2025, and ranked first with $40.94\%$ market share in the forward-facing main LiDAR segment for pre-installed passenger cars in China, per GGII. We remain positive that Hesai is poised to grow alongside the rising demand for LiDAR products. More use cases in robotics and industrial markets should propel further TAM expansion over the long run, in our view. We lift our TP to US$31.3 per ADS, based on 7.5x 2026E PS (was 5.3x), in line with average one-year forward PS over the past year plus one standard deviation. We see catalysts from potential increase in L3 adoption industry-wide to drive the industry toward a "multi-radar" perception era, thereby boosting the dollar amount of LiDAR products per vehicle. We estimate 2024-27E revenue/non-GAAP NP CAGR of \(43\%/318\%$ for Hesai. Maintain BUY. ■ 4Q25 results preview. For 4Q25E, we are expecting revenue of RMB1.0bn, up $44\%$ YoY, and non-GAAP net profit of RMB107mn, translating into $10.3\%$ non-GAAP NPM. Hesai announced that total shipment volume for LiDAR has surpassed 1.6mn in 2025, among which c.1.4mn was for ADAS and over 200k units were for robotics. The data translates into over 610k units LiDAR shipment in 4Q25, up over $175\%$ YoY. In our view, this was driven by robust shipment growth of ATX and JT series. We are looking for 2.6mn units LiDAR shipment in 2026, up $61\%$ YoY, driven by the shipment of revamped ATX (which has secured orders exceeding 4mn units and plans to begin mass production in Apr 2026) and JT series products. ■ More catalysts to expect in 2026E. Hesai has secured design wins from both of its top 2 ADAS customers across all their 2026 models, featuring $100\%$ lidar adoption. Also, the Company's high-end ETX LiDAR secured a design win with a top 3 domestic NEV automaker (which is an existing customer of Hesai), paired with multiple FTX units, and mass production is slated for late 2026 or early 2027. Meanwhile, we expect the potential increase in L3 adoption industry-wide to drive the industry toward a "multi-radar" perception era (3-6 LiDAR units per vehicle), thereby driving an increase in dollar amount per vehicle for LiDAR products. In terms of capacity layout, Hesai has doubled its annual production capacity from 2mn units in 2025 to 4mn units in 2026. TP of US$31.3 based on 7.5x 2026E PS. Our target multiple of 7.5x 2026E PS was inline with average one-year forward PS over the past year plus one standard deviation, higher than industry average of 4.1x 2026E PS, which in our view could be justified by Hesai's robust revenue and earnings growth outlook, and strong competitive advantages. We are looking for 43% 2024-2027E CAGR for revenue and 37% YoY growth for non-GAAP NP in 2026E (or 99% YoY if excluding one-off gains from equity investment in 2025E). Earnings Summary (YE 31 Dec) FY23A FY24A FY25E FY26E FY27E Revenue (RMB mn) 1,877 2,077 3,064 4,404 6,023 YoY growth (%) 56.1 10.7 47.5 43.7 36.8 Net profit (RMB mn) (475.9) (102.4) 358.9 544.2 897.8 Adjusted net profit (RMB mn) (241.3) 13.7 476.8 655.5 1,000.7 EPS (Adjusted) (RMB) (1.93) 0.11 3.38 4.35 6.65 Consensus EPS (RMB) na na 2.80 4.52 7.28 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIG estimates # BUY (Maintain) Target Price US$31.30 (Previous TP US$26.70) Up/Downside 24.8% Current Price US$25.09 # China Software & IT Services Saiyi HE, CFA (852) 3916 1739 hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFA (852) 3850 5226 franktao@cmbi.com.hk # Wentao LU, CFA luwentao@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data Mkt Cap (US$ mn) 3,543.4 Avg 3 mths t/o (US$ mn) 51.9 52w High/Low (US$) 29.80/10.95 Total Issued Shares (mn) 141.2 Source:FactSet Shareholding Structure Fermat Star Limited 6.1% Galbadia Limited 5.9% Source: NASDAQ Share Performance 12-mth Price Performance Absolute Relative 1-mth -4.8% -2.1% 3-mth 26.8% 25.8% 6-mth 7.7% 1.4% Source:FactSet Source:FactSet Figure 1: HSAI: quarterly financial results (RMBmn) 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25E Revenue 359.1 458.9 539.4 719.8 525.3 706.4 795.4 1,037.2 YoY (%) -16.5% 4.2% 21.1% 28.3% 46.3% 53.9% 47.5% 44.1% Gross profit 139 207 258 281 219 300 335 393 Operating profit (138) (96) (77) 107 (33) 23 77 50 Net profit (107) (72) (70) 147 (18) 44 256 76 Adj. NP (69) (44) (44) 170 9 73 288 107 Margin (%) GPM 38.8% 45.1% 47.7% 39.0% 41.7% 42.5% 42.1% 37.9% OPM -38.6% -20.9% -14.3% 14.8% -6.4% 3.2% 9.7% 4.8% NPM -29.8% -15.7% -13.0% 20.4% -3.3% 6.2% 32.2% 7.3% Adj. NPM -19.2% -9.5% -8.2% 23.7% 1.6% 10.4% 36.2% 10.3% Source: Bloomberg, company data, CMBIGM Figure 2: HSAI: forecast revision RMB mn Current Previous Change (%) 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E Revenue 3,064 4,404 6,023 3,156 4,799 6,545.7 -2.9% -8.2% -8.0% Gross profit 1,248 1,727 2,274 1,315 1,917 2,526.3 -5.1% -9.9% -10.0% Non-GAAP NP 477 656 1,001 523 735 1,017.4 -8.9% -10.9% -1.6% GPM 40.7% 39.2% 37.8% 41.7% 39.9% 38.6% -0.9 ppt -0.7 ppt -0.8 ppt Non-GAAP NPM 15.6% 14.9% 16.6% 16.6% 15.3% 15.5% -1.0 ppt -0.4 ppt 1.1 ppt Source: Bloomberg, company data, CMBIGM estimates Figure 3: HSAI: target valuation P/S Valuation (RMBmn) 2026E 2026E Revenue 4,404 Target 2026E P/S 7.5x Equity value 33,027 No. of ADS outstanding (diluted; mn) 151 Target price (USD) 31.3 Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates Note: USD/RMB = 7.0:1 Figure 4: HSAI: one-year forward P/S band over the past year Source: Bloomberg, CMBIGM Figure 5: HSAI: Comps table Companies Ticker Price (LC) Mkt CAP (US$mn) Price/Sales (x) 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E Innoviz INVZ US Equity 1.0 202.6 8.3 3.5 2.4 1.6 Ouster OUST US Equity 18.9 1167.5 10.5 7.9 5.8 4.2 Mobileye Global MBLY US Equity 9.6 8161.9 4.3 4.3 4.2 3.7 Robosense 2498 HK Equity 33.7 2034.8 8.9 6.6 4.1 3.0 Average 8.0 5.6 4.1 3.1 Source: Bloomberg, CMBIGM Note: data as of 12 Feb 2026 # Risks 1) Potential product defects, and other routes of technology proven to be more effective than that of LiDAR (such as camera-based system), which may both lead to reduced market adoption of LiDAR solutions; 2) Lower-than-expected pace of penetration of LiDAR/ADAS; 3) Rising competition from other companies developing LiDAR products, as well as a potential price war in LiDAR industry weighing on the blended ASP of HSAI's products; 4) Higher-than-expected operating expenses leading to slower-than-expected margin expansion. Financial Summary INCOME STATEMENT 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) Revenue 1,203 1,877 2,077 3,064 4,404 6,023 Cost of goods sold (731) (1,216) (1,193) (1,816) (2,677) (3,749) Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 Gross profit 472 661 885 1,248 1,727 2,274 Operating expenses (850) (1,233) (1,089) (1,131) (1,208) (1,279) Selling expense (105) (149) (193) (185) (196) (206) SG&A expense (201) (320) (317) (293) (311) (329) R&D expense (555) (791) (856) (803) (851) (893) Others 11 27 276 150 150 150 Operating profit (378) (572) (205) 117 519 996 EBITDA (325) (485) (73) 249 670 1,168 Depreciation 54 86 132 132 151 172 Interest income 59 100 104 97 154 117 Interest expense 0 (3) (13) (17) (17) (17) Net Interest income/(expense) 59 97 92 80 137 99 Foreign exchange gain/loss 21 (0) 15 17 0 0 Other income/expense (2) 0 (2) 172 0 0 Pre-tax profit (301) (475) (101) 386 656 1,095 Income tax 0 (1) (1) (27) (111) (197) Others (446) 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit (747) (476) (102) 359 544 898 Adjusted net profit (196) (241) 14 477 656 1,001 BALANCE SHEET 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) Current assets 3,135 4,398 4,683 9,314 10,024 11,165 Cash & equivalents 1,859 3,141 3,246 7,703 7,771 8,124 Account receivables 485 525 765 825 1,186 1,623 Inventories 647 496 482 596 878 1,229 Other current assets 144 236 190 190 190 190 Non-current assets 505 872 944 1,002 1,059 1,105 PP&E 589 1,026 1,026 1,201 1,395 1,598 Other non-current assets (84) (154) (82) (199) (336) (493) Total assets 3,839 5,663 5,990 10,773 11,545 12,726 Current liabilities 956 1,335 1,629 1,755 1,983 2,267 Short-term borrowings 0 112 345 345 345 345 Account payables 207 277 355 481 709 993 Other current liabilities 749 947 929 929 929 929 Non-current liabilities 42 465 429 429 429 429 Long-term borrowings 18 286 269 269 269 269 Other non-current liabilities 24 179 160 160 160 160 Total liabilities 998 1,800 2,058 2,184 2,412 2,696 Share capital 0 7,424 7,577 11,875 11,875 11,875 Retained earnings (3,145) (3,562) (3,645) (3,287) (2,742) (1,845) Other reserves 5,987 0 0 0 0 0 Total shareholders equity (3,145) 3,862 3,932 8,589 9,133 10,031 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total equity and liabilities 3,839 5,663 5,990 10,773 11,545 12,726 CASH FLOW 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) Operating Profit before taxation (747) (476) (102) 359 544 898 Depreciation & amortization 54 86 132 132 151 172 Change in working capital (540) 181 (148) (48) (415) (504) Others 538 266 180 0 0 0 Net cash from operations (696) 57 64 443 281 566 Investing Capital expenditure (240) (415) (271) (284) (213) (213) Acquisition of subsidiaries/ investments 1,360 (622) 1,227 0 0 0 Others 0 (24) 0 0 0 0 Net cash from investing 1,120 (1,060) 956 (284) (213) (213) Financing Dividend paid 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net borrowings 18 377 354 0 0 0 Share repurchases 0 1,225 0 4,298 0 0 Others (3) (12) (104) 0 0 0 Net cash from financing 15 1,590 251 4,298 0 0 Net change in cash Cash at the beginning of the year 449 913 1,558 2,828 7,285 7,353 Exchange difference 25 58 14 0 0 0 Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cash at the end of the year 913 1,558 2,828 7,285 7,353 7,707 Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates. 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