2002年-世界发展银行全球_Bolivia___Poverty_Diagnostic_2000_124页_8mb

Bolivia Poverty Diagnostic 2000 Summary

Core Content

This report, Bolivia Poverty Diagnostic 2000, provides a comprehensive analysis of poverty and inequality in Bolivia during the 1990s and early 2000s, contributing to the National Dialogue II and the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). It highlights the micro-determinants of poverty, non-monetary indicators of well-being, and the impact of economic growth on poverty reduction. The report also outlines the priorities of the poor and the effectiveness of social programs.

Main Findings

A. Poverty Trends

• Poverty Reduction in Large Cities: Poverty decreased in large cities during the 1990s, with the share of the population in poverty dropping from 52.0% in 1993 to 47.0% in November 1999.
• Extreme Poverty: The share of extreme poverty also declined, from 25.5% in 1993 to 21.62% in November 1999.
• Urban-Rural Disparity: Poverty remains high in smaller cities and rural areas, with over 80% of the rural population living in poverty.
• National Poverty Levels: In November 1999, 62.7% of the population was poor, and 36.8% was in extreme poverty.
• Latin America Comparison: Bolivia's poverty levels are significantly higher than the Latin American average, which was 36.10% in 1998.

B. Inequality Trends

• Inequality Decline in Large Cities: Inequality decreased in large cities, as indicated by lower Gini and Atkinson indices between 1993 and 1999.
• No Long-Term Trend: While there was a slight decrease in inequality, this does not necessarily imply a long-term trend.
• Urban-Rural Inequality: Inequality levels in rural areas were higher in 1997 but lower in 1999, likely due to the use of per capita consumption instead of income for the latter.

C. Micro Determinants of Poverty

• Demographic Factors: The presence of more children and the fact of being from an indigenous population increase the probability of poverty.
• Education and Employment: Higher education and non-agricultural employment reduce poverty.
• Geography and Migration: Migration is associated with a lower probability of poverty, and geographic location significantly affects income and well-being.
• Altiplano Productivity: Rural poor in the Altiplano face declining productivity and environmental pressures, with limited gains from development projects.

D. Non-Monetary Indicators

• Improvement in Non-Monetary Indicators: Non-monetary indicators of well-being (like NBI) improved faster than income-based measures.
• Basic Infrastructure Access: Access to basic infrastructure services is crucial for poverty reduction.
• Priority Areas: Poor communities emphasize the need for improved education, health, and nutrition services.
• Gender and Violence: Gender issues and violence are significant concerns for the poor, requiring attention in policy design.

E. Education, Health, and Nutrition

• Education Progress: Primary school enrollment improved, but dropout rates and quality remain issues.
• Child Labor Cost: The cost of child labor in terms of forgone future earnings is substantial.
• Health Performance: Bolivia's health performance is lower than its education performance, with indicators like infant mortality and malnutrition still needing improvement.
• Social Investment Fund (SIF): The SIF has positive effects on health outcomes but limited impact on education.

F. Impact of Growth

• Growth and Well-Being: Economic growth improves both monetary and non-monetary indicators of well-being.
• Pro-Poor Growth: Growth benefits the poor more in education but less in infrastructure and health.
• Growth Elasticities: Growth elasticities can be used for simulations to estimate poverty and social indicator changes.
• Need for Further Research: More work is needed to understand the determinants of growth and how to make it more pro-poor.

Key Information and Priorities

• Poverty Monitoring: The report uses household surveys and qualitative data to assess poverty and well-being.
• Policy Input: It serves as an input for the PRSP, rather than making direct policy recommendations.
• Synthesis Distribution: The Government distributed a synthesis of the report during the National Dialogue II, but the full report offers more detailed analysis.
• Social Capital and Equity: Social capital matters for poverty reduction, and the report emphasizes the need for equitable access to services.
• Future Recommendations: Continued national surveys, improved access to basic services, and targeted social programs are recommended.

Methodology and Supporting Data

• Data Sources: The report draws on data from INE and UDAPE, with contributions from the World Bank and other international organizations.
• Tables and Figures: Includes detailed tables on poverty trends, inequality measures, education and health indicators, and growth elasticities.
• Boxes: Highlights case studies and policy suggestions, such as Mexico’s infrastructure allocation model and the PROGRESSA program.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while there has been some progress in reducing poverty, especially in urban areas, significant challenges remain, particularly in rural regions. It underscores the importance of addressing non-monetary needs, improving education and health outcomes, and ensuring equitable access to public services. Continued research and data collection are necessary to better understand long-term poverty trends and to design more effective poverty reduction strategies.