2024-03-24-世界银行-防洪和土地价值创造_并非所有的复原投资都是平等的（英）_46页_3mb

Introduction: The paper examines land value creation as a potential benefit from flood mitigation investments, investigating how these benefits vary and the key factors influencing them.

Methodology: A theoretical urban economics framework combining land and housing markets is calibrated using Buenos Aires data. A simulation model accounts for resilience impacts, with a later reduced-form approximation for easier estimation.

Key Findings:

• Land value creation is localized, especially in valuable areas like city centers.
• Expected net aggregate land value creation can range widely, sometimes justifying a significant share of resilience investment costs.
• Factors like flooding location, city model (open vs. closed), and flood damage estimates significantly affect results.

Drive Forces: Model parameters are highly influential. The elasticity of housing production with respect to capital (𝑏𝑏) and real interest rates (𝑖𝑖) are critical. Relaxing housing regulations alone doesn't significantly increase aggregate land value creation.

Reduced Form Approximation: Offers a simpler alternative for estimating land value appreciation, requiring less data and calibration effort.

Sensitivity & Caveats: Land value creation estimates can range from inconsequential to highly significant, depending on model parameters or framework choices. Real-world implementation must account for land market dynamics and transaction costs, especially in data-scarce contexts.

Conclusions: Land value creation is a significant potential benefit of urban resilience investments. The use of equilibrium models is recommended for accurate estimation, with market frictions and variable resilience investment impacts posing key implementation challenges.