20230801-大越期货-沥青期货早报_32页_1mb

Asphalt Futures Daily Report Summary: August 1, 2023

Overall Outlook

• Short-term prices supported by anticipated supply increases and demand recovery, but high inventories and weather disruptions could limit gains.
• Key factors: Rising crude prices provide cost support, while regional demand improvements offer additional upside.

Fundamentals

• Supply: August planned output up 189% year-over-year, but July maintenance levels were high (actual production may be lower). Expected cluster production timing, with potential reduction in supply if forecasts hold.
• Demand: Main demand prices rose, with Northern and Southern regions showing recovery. However, weather issues (rain and typhoons) may dampen consumption.

Market Analysis

• Price Trends: MA20 indicator shows upward bias, with the 10-contract position above its moving average.
• Basis: Strong positive spot-futures spread (e.g., Shandong现货 at 3810元/吨, +54元/吨 vs. 10-contract); this suggests difficulties in arbitrage and supply constraints.
• Inventories: July data shows total social inventory at 1452万吨 (down 6.2%), but plant inventory increased slightly, indicating high absolute levels.

Risk Factors

• Supportive factors: Expanding spreads between asphalt and crude, regional demand recovery, and crude price volatility.
• Concerns: High total inventory pressures, geopolitical uncertainty from Ukraine/Russia conflict, and potential economic slowdown in Europe/America. Weather risks remain significant for demand.

Key takeaway: Short-term outlook is mixed, with bullish fundamentals from supply/demand balance offset by inventory concerns.