20260423-招银国际-3QFY26_results_Solid_top-line_growth_and_margin_expansion_6页_1mb

报告摘要

New Oriental (EDU US) 3QFY26 Results and Analysis Summary

Core Content and Key Highlights

New Oriental reported its 3QFY26 results, highlighting solid top-line growth and margin expansion. The company achieved net revenue of $1.42 billion, representing a 20% YoY increase, which exceeded the Bloomberg consensus estimate by 4%. Non-GAAP net income rose by 34% YoY to $152 million, aligning with the consensus and driven by improved operational efficiency and profit contribution from East Buy.

For 4QFY26E, management guided net revenue to increase by 15-18% YoY, reaching $1.43–1.47 billion, which is ahead of the Bloomberg consensus of $1.43 billion. The company is optimistic about further margin improvement in 4QFY26E and FY27E, supported by enhanced learning center utilization and cost control initiatives.

Main Business Drivers

Revenue Growth by Segment

New Educational Business Initiatives: Revenue increased by 23% YoY, driven by increased ARPU, 19% YoY growth in active paid users of the intelligent learning system, and 12% YoY growth in non-academic tutoring course enrollments.
Domestic Test Prep: Revenue grew by 15% YoY.
Overseas Test Prep Business: Revenue increased by 7% YoY, attributed to strong execution despite macroeconomic uncertainties.

Forecast for 4QFY26E

New Educational Initiatives: Expected 20% YoY growth
High-School Tutoring: Expected 17% YoY growth
Domestic Test Prep for Adults: Expected 25% YoY growth
Overseas-Related Business: Expected 1% YoY growth

Operational Improvements and Technology

New Oriental continues to leverage AI to enhance internal operations and learning products. The company has launched New Oriental Home, a comprehensive customer service platform, which has served over 330,000 families in 12 cities. This platform has improved customer retention, increased customer lifetime value, and optimized operation costs. It has achieved campaign activation rates of 10–15%, significantly higher than those of other e-commerce platforms.

Margin Expansion

The company's Non-GAAP OPM rose by 2.3ppt YoY to 14.3%, primarily due to prudent capacity expansion, enhanced operational efficiency, and profit contribution from East Buy. The overall opex ratio declined by 3.6ppt YoY. For FY27E, management expects to expand learning center capacity by ~10% with continuous improvement in utilization rate.

Valuation and Target Price

The SOTP-derived valuation for New Oriental is $82 per ADS, an increase from the previous estimate of $78. The valuation is composed of:

Educational & Consulting Business: Valued at $78.8 million, based on 25x FY26E PE, reflecting its strong leadership in the educational sector.
East Buy: Valued at $2.0 million, based on 11x FY26E PE, in line with the e-commerce sector average.
Tourism and Others: Valued at $1.2 million, based on 10x FY26E PE, which is a discount to other OTA platforms due to the early development stage of its tourism business.

Financial Summary (FY26E)

Metric	FY26E (US$ mn)
Revenue	5,598
Gross Profit	3,070
Non-GAAP OP	730.7
Non-GAAP Net Income	580.4
Non-GAAP EPS	3.7
Gross Margin	54.8%
Non-GAAP OPM	13.1%
Non-GAAP Net Margin	10.4%

Business Forecasts and Valuation Comparison

FY	Revenue (US$ mn)	Non-GAAP Net Income (US$ mn)	Non-GAAP EPS (US$)
FY24A	4,314	517.1	3.19
FY25A	4,900	695.4	4.4
FY26E	5,598	761.7	4.8
FY27E	6,405	832.7	5.2
FY28E	6,962	832.7	5.2

Valuation Comparison:

Education Sector Average P/E: 22x (vs. New Oriental's 25x)
E-commerce Sector Average P/E: 11x (vs. New Oriental's 11x for East Buy)
OTA Platforms Average P/E: 12x (vs. New Oriental's 10x for Tourism and Others)

Investment Recommendation

Rating: BUY
Target Price: $82.00 (up from $78.00)
Upside/Downside: 49.8%
Current Price: $54.73

Shareholding and Stock Performance

Market Cap: $8,691.1 million
Shareholding Structure:
- Minhong Yu: 12.5%
- First Beijing: 11.0%
12-Month Price Performance:
- Absolute: -0.6% (1-month), -5.1% (3-month), -9.0% (6-month)
- Relative: -11.5% (1-month), -9.5% (3-month), -15.4% (6-month)

Analyst Certification and Disclaimer

The analyst certifies that the views expressed in the report accurately reflect their personal views and that no compensation is directly or indirectly related to the report's content.
The report is not tailored for individual investors and does not guarantee accuracy or completeness.
There are risks involved in trading securities, and actual outcomes may differ from the report's expectations.
CMBIGM may have conflicts of interest and investment banking relationships with the companies mentioned.

CMBIGM Ratings

BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months.
SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months.
NOT RATED: Stock not rated by CMBIG.
OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant market benchmark.
MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the market benchmark.
UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the market benchmark.

Legal and Distribution Notes

This report is intended solely for major US institutional investors.
In the UK, it is only provided to persons within Article 19(5) or Article 49(2) of the Financial Promotion Order.
In the Singapore, it is distributed by CMBISG, an Exempt Financial Adviser.
CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the US, and this report is not for public distribution in the US.