> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # New Oriental (EDU US) 3QFY26 Results and Analysis Summary ## Core Content and Key Highlights New Oriental reported its 3QFY26 results, highlighting **solid top-line growth** and **margin expansion**. The company achieved **net revenue of $1.42 billion**, representing a **20% YoY increase**, which exceeded the Bloomberg consensus estimate by 4%. Non-GAAP net income rose by **34% YoY to $152 million**, aligning with the consensus and driven by **improved operational efficiency** and **profit contribution from East Buy**. For 4QFY26E, management guided net revenue to increase by **15-18% YoY**, reaching **$1.43–1.47 billion**, which is **ahead of the Bloomberg consensus** of $1.43 billion. The company is optimistic about **further margin improvement** in 4QFY26E and FY27E, supported by **enhanced learning center utilization** and **cost control initiatives**. ## Main Business Drivers ### Revenue Growth by Segment - **New Educational Business Initiatives**: Revenue increased by **23% YoY**, driven by **increased ARPU**, **19% YoY growth in active paid users of the intelligent learning system**, and **12% YoY growth in non-academic tutoring course enrollments**. - **Domestic Test Prep**: Revenue grew by **15% YoY**. - **Overseas Test Prep Business**: Revenue increased by **7% YoY**, attributed to **strong execution** despite macroeconomic uncertainties. ### Forecast for 4QFY26E - **New Educational Initiatives**: Expected **20% YoY growth** - **High-School Tutoring**: Expected **17% YoY growth** - **Domestic Test Prep for Adults**: Expected **25% YoY growth** - **Overseas-Related Business**: Expected **1% YoY growth** ## Operational Improvements and Technology New Oriental continues to **leverage AI** to enhance **internal operations** and **learning products**. The company has launched **New Oriental Home**, a comprehensive customer service platform, which has served over **330,000 families** in **12 cities**. This platform has **improved customer retention**, **increased customer lifetime value**, and **optimized operation costs**. It has achieved **campaign activation rates of 10–15%**, significantly higher than those of other e-commerce platforms. ## Margin Expansion The company's **Non-GAAP OPM** rose by **2.3ppt YoY to 14.3%**, primarily due to **prudent capacity expansion**, **enhanced operational efficiency**, and **profit contribution from East Buy**. The **overall opex ratio declined by 3.6ppt YoY**. For FY27E, management expects to **expand learning center capacity by ~10%** with **continuous improvement in utilization rate**. ## Valuation and Target Price The **SOTP-derived valuation** for New Oriental is **$82 per ADS**, an increase from the previous estimate of **$78**. The valuation is composed of: 1. **Educational & Consulting Business**: Valued at **$78.8 million**, based on **25x FY26E PE**, reflecting its **strong leadership in the educational sector**. 2. **East Buy**: Valued at **$2.0 million**, based on **11x FY26E PE**, in line with the e-commerce sector average. 3. **Tourism and Others**: Valued at **$1.2 million**, based on **10x FY26E PE**, which is a **discount to other OTA platforms** due to the **early development stage** of its tourism business. ## Financial Summary (FY26E) | Metric | FY26E (US$ mn) | |--------|----------------| | Revenue | 5,598 | | Gross Profit | 3,070 | | Non-GAAP OP | 730.7 | | Non-GAAP Net Income | 580.4 | | Non-GAAP EPS | 3.7 | | Gross Margin | 54.8% | | Non-GAAP OPM | 13.1% | | Non-GAAP Net Margin | 10.4% | ## Business Forecasts and Valuation Comparison | FY | Revenue (US$ mn) | Non-GAAP Net Income (US$ mn) | Non-GAAP EPS (US$) | |----|------------------|------------------------------|-------------------| | FY24A | 4,314 | 517.1 | 3.19 | | FY25A | 4,900 | 695.4 | 4.4 | | FY26E | 5,598 | 761.7 | 4.8 | | FY27E | 6,405 | 832.7 | 5.2 | | FY28E | 6,962 | 832.7 | 5.2 | **Valuation Comparison:** - **Education Sector Average P/E**: 22x (vs. New Oriental's 25x) - **E-commerce Sector Average P/E**: 11x (vs. New Oriental's 11x for East Buy) - **OTA Platforms Average P/E**: 12x (vs. New Oriental's 10x for Tourism and Others) ## Investment Recommendation - **Rating**: **BUY** - **Target Price**: **$82.00** (up from $78.00) - **Upside/Downside**: **49.8%** - **Current Price**: **$54.73** ## Shareholding and Stock Performance - **Market Cap**: **$8,691.1 million** - **Shareholding Structure**: - **Minhong Yu**: 12.5% - **First Beijing**: 11.0% - **12-Month Price Performance**: - **Absolute**: -0.6% (1-month), -5.1% (3-month), -9.0% (6-month) - **Relative**: -11.5% (1-month), -9.5% (3-month), -15.4% (6-month) ## Analyst Certification and Disclaimer - The analyst certifies that the views expressed in the report accurately reflect their **personal views** and that **no compensation** is directly or indirectly related to the report's content. - The report is **not tailored** for individual investors and **does not guarantee** accuracy or completeness. - There are **risks** involved in trading securities, and **actual outcomes may differ** from the report's expectations. - CMBIGM may have **conflicts of interest** and **investment banking relationships** with the companies mentioned. ## CMBIGM Ratings - **BUY**: Stock with potential return of **over 15%** over next 12 months. - **HOLD**: Stock with potential return of **+15% to -10%** over next 12 months. - **SELL**: Stock with potential loss of **over 10%** over next 12 months. - **NOT RATED**: Stock not rated by CMBIG. - **OUTPERFORM**: Industry expected to **outperform** the relevant market benchmark. - **MARKET-PERFORM**: Industry expected to **perform in-line** with the market benchmark. - **UNDERPERFORM**: Industry expected to **underperform** the market benchmark. ## Legal and Distribution Notes - This report is **intended solely for major US institutional investors**. - In the **UK**, it is only provided to **persons within Article 19(5)** or **Article 49(2)** of the Financial Promotion Order. - In the **Singapore**, it is distributed by **CMBISG**, an Exempt Financial Adviser. - CMBIGM is **not a registered broker-dealer** in the **US**, and this report is **not for public distribution** in the **US**.