2013年-世界发展银行全球_Demography_Aging_and_Mobility_in_the_ECA_Region___A_Critical_Overview_of_Trends_and_Future_Challenges_52页_1mb

Summary of Demography, Aging, and Mobility in the ECA Region

Core Content

This document provides a critical overview of demographic trends and future challenges in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region, focusing on aging populations, fertility decline, mortality patterns, and the role of migration in addressing these issues.

Main Trends and Challenges

Population Change

• Global Context: The global population increased by 30% from 1990 to 2010, while the ECA region as a whole experienced a 1.4% decrease, diverging from the global trend.
• Country-Level Trends:
  • Central Asian and Turkish Countries: Experienced the highest population growth (up to 59% in Tajikistan), driven by natural increase.
  • Eastern European Countries: Most saw significant population declines (e.g., Bulgaria, Lithuania, Ukraine) due to natural decrease and high emigration.
  • Russia: Declined by 8.5% due to natural decrease but saw a slight increase from net immigration.

Fertility Trends

• Fertility Levels: Many ECA countries have lowest-low fertility, with birth rates below 1.3 children per woman, leading to population decline.
• Replacement-Level Fertility: In 1989, fertility rates were at or near replacement level, but by 2009, only Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries maintained above-replacement fertility.
• Fertility Decline: Fertility rates in Central Asia and Albania dropped by about 1.5 children per woman on average.
• Determinants of Fertility: Four key factors explain most of the variation in fertility:
  • Marriage Rates: Declined by 28% from 1989 to 2000.
  • Contraceptive Use: Increased significantly across all ECA countries.
  • Abortion Rates: Declined from 7.2 million in 1989 to 2.3 million in 2007, but remain high in some countries.
  • Lactational Infecundability: Plays a role in fertility patterns.

Mortality Trends

• Mortality Crisis: A significant mortality crisis occurred in the early 1990s, particularly among middle-aged populations in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltic states.
• Life Expectancy:
  • Russia: Male life expectancy fell by 7.1 years from 1989 to 1994, and female life expectancy fell by 3.3 years. It has since increased but remains below pre-transition levels.
  • Other ECA Countries: Life expectancy trends were less severe but still below global norms.
• Gender Disparity in Mortality: Women in the ECA region outlive men by 8 years on average, with some countries (e.g., Russia) showing a 10+ year gap.
• Causes of Mortality: The rise in adult mortality was linked to lifestyle factors such as diet, alcohol and tobacco use, lack of exercise, and stress. It was also associated with the collapse of the social safety net, privatization, unemployment, and social dislocation.

Aging and Dependency Ratios

• Aging Populations: Several ECA countries have among the oldest median age populations globally.
• Dependency Ratios: As populations age, there is a shift from youth to pensioners, leading to increased dependency ratios.
• Impact of Fertility Decline: Fertility levels are the primary driver of aging, as they affect the size of future cohorts more than mortality or migration.

Migration and Mobility

• Migration Patterns: Migration is age-selective, with younger populations more likely to migrate, leading to population decline in source countries.
• Replacement Migration: This concept refers to using migration to offset population decline, but it carries social and political risks, including ethnic and racial mixing.
• Migration Effects: Migration has led to structural dependencies, hostilities, and social/economic consequences in some ECA countries.

Policy Implications

• Policy Questions: The paper examines the economic and social consequences of aging and the potential role of migration in addressing demographic imbalances.
• Policy Options: Migration is one of several possible solutions, but it is not without risks.
• Areas for Further Research: The paper highlights the need for more detailed analysis of demographic trends and their economic implications in individual ECA countries.

Conclusion

• The ECA region is facing unprecedented demographic challenges, including aging populations, low fertility, and high mortality.
• These trends are driven by economic and social changes, including the transition from centrally planned to market economies.
• Migration could play a crucial role in mitigating these challenges, but its implications and risks must be carefully managed.
• Policy responses need to be tailored to specific national contexts, considering both demographic and economic factors.

Key Findings

• 16 ECA countries have more deaths than births.
• Lowest-low fertility is widespread in the region.
• Mortality trends have been disproportionately high in certain ECA countries.
• Migration is age-selective and can exacerbate population decline in source countries.
• Aging populations are expected to increase dependency ratios and strain public expenditures.

Demographic Transition Stages

• Second and Third Stages: Many ECA countries were in these stages in 1989, with high birth rates and low death rates.
• Fourth Stage: A large portion of the region is in this stage, with stable or declining populations.
• Fifth Stage: Some ECA countries, like those in Western Europe, are now entering a second demographic transition marked by very low fertility, non-marriage, and non-marital childbearing.

Future Projections

• Population Aging: Expected to accelerate over the next two decades.
• Dependency Ratios: Will increase, placing greater pressure on economic growth and public services.
• Migration Role: May help offset population decline, but careful management is required to avoid social tensions.

References

• The report draws on data from UNICEF, TransMONEE database, national statistical offices, and demographic literature.