20140513-高盛-Caught_between_politics,credit_and_macro_risks_But_the_strategic_case_for_commodities_keeps_us_long-term_bullish_14页_409kb

报告摘要

Summary of Document: Caught between politics, credit and macro risks

Core Content

The document provides an analysis of recent developments in global commodity markets, highlighting the current state of market dynamics, the strategic case for commodities, and implications for both producers and investors. It outlines how the commodity cycle is transitioning from an investment phase to an exploitation phase, which has long-term implications for price trends, returns, and market behavior.

Main Views

Commodity Market Volatility: Over the past month, commodity markets have shown little clear directionality due to a "tug-of-war" between supply and geopolitical risks. This has led to sideways price movements or round-trip trends in many markets.
Energy Sector Outlook:
- WTI Crude Oil: Prices experienced a sharp reversal after an early April rally, influenced by high PADD3 inventories and refinery maintenance. The WTI-Brent spread remains negative, and there is a risk of volatility due to refinery capacity constraints.
- Brent Crude Oil: Prices have remained range-bound around $108/bbl, driven by offsetting geopolitical risks (Libya and Ukraine) and stable fundamentals. A modest decline is expected in 2014, with a forecast of $105/bbl by year-end.
- RBOB Gasoline: Margins have declined, reversing an earlier rally. Support from low inventories and import demand is expected, but risks of weaker emerging market demand could limit upside.
- USGC Heating Oil: Distillate cracks have been affected by low EU inventories and seasonal demand, but we expect a medium-term recovery due to increased European oil demand in summer.
- NYMEX Natural Gas: Prices have moderated after a recent rally, with the Climate Prediction Center indicating a 65% chance of El Niño developing later in 2014, which could lead to milder temperatures and lower demand. A forecast of $4.00/mmBtu is provided.
- UK NBP Natural Gas: Prices have continued to fall, reaching their lowest level since late 2011. This is attributed to milder winter and low seasonal demand, though risks remain if the Ukraine situation deteriorates.
Industrial Metals Outlook:
- LME Aluminium: Prices have remained range-bound, with a forecast of $1,900/mt for 12 months. A global surplus is expected to end in 2014 due to Chinese smelter closures, with a more constructive medium-term outlook.
- LME Copper: Prices have retraced part of their losses, stabilizing around $6,700-6800/t. We remain bearish on copper for 2014, with a forecast of $6,200/t by year-end. Weakness in the Chinese property sector continues to pressure demand.
- LME Nickel: Prices have risen sharply, reaching around $21,000/t. The forecast has been raised to $22,000/mt for both 3-month and 6-month horizons, though the 12-month forecast remains at $16,000/mt.

Key Information

Strategic Case for Commodities: Despite the current lack of direction, the strategic case for commodities remains strong. The global growth recovery is expected to further drive commodity performance in the long term.
Investment vs. Exploitation Phase: The commodity cycle has transitioned from an investment phase to an exploitation phase, characterized by cost deflation, margin compression, and increased corporate hedging. This shift is structural and outlasts business cycle fluctuations.
Productivity and Cost Trends: Productivity is expected to improve, leading to cost deflation. This is supported by rising total factor productivity (TFP) and more efficient operations.
Returns Composition: While the level of returns remains similar, the composition changes. Commodity-equity investors may see higher payout ratios, and commodity index investors may benefit from positive roll yields despite weaker spot prices.
Commodity as a Diversifier: Commodities are expected to perform well when equities and bonds underperform, reinforcing their role as a diversifying asset class in a typical portfolio.

Outlook and Forecast

Commodity	Recent Events/Outlook	12-Month Forecast
Energy	- WTI Crude Oil: Volatility due to inventory and refinery factors.	$90.00/bbl
	- Brent Crude Oil: Range-bound with geopolitical and supply balance factors.	$100.00/bbl
	- RBOB Gasoline: Margins tracking inventory changes, with summer demand key.	$2.60/gal
	- USGC Heating Oil: Distillate cracks supported by low inventories and seasonal demand.	$2.90/gal
	- NYMEX Natural Gas: Prices moderated, with El Niño risk and 2015 supply outlook.	$4.00/mmBtu
	- UK NBP Natural Gas: Continued decline due to low demand and high storage levels.	77.6p/th
Industrial Metals	- LME Aluminium: Surplus expected to end in 2014, with higher 12-month forecast.	$1,900/mt
	- LME Copper: Retraced losses, but bearish for 2014.	$6,600/mt
	- LME Nickel: Sharp rally, with increased forecast for short-term horizons.	$22,000/mt

Implications for Producers and Investors

Producers: The exploitation phase brings cost deflation and margin compression, but also increased operational efficiency and risk diversification. Producers can manage these risks through corporate restructuring and financial hedging.
Investors: The nature of returns changes, with commodity-equity investors seeing higher payout ratios and commodity index investors benefiting from positive roll yields. Commodities remain a good diversifying asset class due to their unique risk-return profile.

Key Contacts

Jeffrey Currie
(212) 357-6801
jeffrey.currie@gs.com
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
Damien Courvalin
(212) 902-3307
damien.courvalin@gs.com
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
Christian Lelong
+61(2)9321-8635
christian.lelong@gs.com
Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd
Samantha Dart
+44(20)7552-9350
samantha.dart@gs.com
Goldman Sachs International
Max Layton
+44(20)7774-1105
max.layton@gs.com
Goldman Sachs International
Roger Yuan
+852-2978-6128
roger.yuan@gs.com
Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Michael Hinds
(212) 357-7528
michael.hinds@gs.com
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
Daniel Quigley
+44(20)7774-3470
daniel.quigley@gs.com
Goldman Sachs International
Anamaria Pieschacon
(917) 343-9076
anamaria.pieschacon@gs.com
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
Amber Cai
+65-6654-5264
amber.cai@gs.com
Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte

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