2009年-世界发展银行全球_Bulgaria___Living_Conditions_Before_and_After_EU_Accession_82页_1mb

Summary of Report No. 44289-BG: Living Conditions in Bulgaria before and after EU Accession

Core Content

This report analyzes the living conditions in Bulgaria between 2003 and 2007, a period marked by robust economic growth and significant structural reforms that led to EU accession in 2007. The report provides insights into the trends and dynamics of poverty, inequality, and living standards, using data from the 2003 and 2007 Multitopic Household Surveys (MTHS). It also outlines the methodology and key findings related to the measurement and analysis of poverty in Bulgaria.

Key Findings

1. Improvement in Living Standards

• Monetary and Non-Monetary Indicators: Living standards improved significantly between 2003 and 2007, with average household consumption increasing by 21% and income by 37%.
• Regional and Quintile Disparities: Rural areas and the poorest wealth groups experienced higher improvements. The poorest quintile saw a 32% increase in consumption, while the richest quintile saw only a 13% increase.
• Poverty Decline: Headcount poverty decreased from 20% in 2003 to 10.2% in 2007 using an absolute poverty line of BGN 185 per adult equivalent per month. Extreme poverty also declined significantly, from 11% to 4.5%.

2. Reduction in Inequality

• Gini Coefficient: The Gini coefficient for consumption expenditures fell from 0.313 in 2003 to 0.283 in 2007, a 10% reduction.
• Urban vs. Rural: Inequality was lower in urban areas, with a decline of nearly 11% in urban regions.
• Comparison with Other NMS: Bulgaria's inequality level in 2007 was lower than most other new member states and comparable to the average levels of EU-25 and EU-15.

3. Pro-Poor Growth

• Urban Growth Impact: The urban poor benefited more from growth than the rich, with the poorest 5% of urban households seeing a 48% increase in consumption.
• Unemployment and Wages: The decline in unemployment and real wage increases contributed to reducing poverty incidence.

4. Improved Living Conditions for the Disabled

• Poverty Headcount: The poverty headcount among the disabled declined by over 100%.
• Extreme Poverty: Extreme poverty among the disabled fell from 12.4% in 2003 to 4.5% in 2007.
• Support Mechanisms: Disability pensions and integration supplements played a role in improving their living conditions.

5. Reduction in the Working Poor Phenomenon

• Employment and Poverty: The incidence of poverty among the employed was 4%, less than half the national average.
• Unemployed Risk: The unemployed faced a risk of poverty more than three times the national average and eight times that of employed individuals.
• Sectoral Differences: In 2007, private sector employment provided better outcomes than public sector employment.

6. Modest Improvements in Non-Monetary Well-Being

• Basic Needs: The proportion of individuals reporting difficulties meeting basic needs declined, but not as rapidly as monetary poverty.
• Housing Conditions: Housing conditions improved, but the nonmonetary indicators showed less dramatic changes.
• Education and Health: The proportion of individuals with less than initial education showed little improvement, and poor health remained a persistent issue.

7. Poverty Concentration among Children and the Elderly

• Headcount Poverty Rate: Children under 6 and the elderly (65+) had a headcount poverty rate of about 16%, 6 percentage points higher than the national average.
• Demographic Impact: These two groups together accounted for over 39% of the poor, despite representing 25.3% of the population.
• Child Poverty: Roma children were disproportionately affected, contributing 78% of total child poverty in 2007.

8. Challenges for the Unskilled

• Education and Poverty: Individuals with less than secondary education made up nearly 80% of the poor in 2007, despite representing only 37% of the population.
• Unemployment Rates: Unskilled individuals were twice as likely to be unemployed as those with secondary or higher education.

9. Regional Disparities in Poverty

• Regional Poverty Levels: Poverty remained higher in the northern regions of Bulgaria.
• Urban-Rural Divide: Urban areas saw more significant improvements in living standards compared to rural areas.

Methodology and Data Sources

• Surveys: The report uses data from the 2003 and 2007 Multitopic Household Surveys (MTHS).
• Poverty Measurement: Monetary poverty is measured using consumption expenditures and income, with a poverty line set at 60% of the mean income.
• Non-Monetary Indicators: These include access to food, clothing, housing, clean water, health care, and education.
• Poverty Decomposition: The report includes decomposition analyses to understand the impact of growth and redistribution on poverty reduction.

Conclusion

The report highlights significant improvements in living standards and a reduction in poverty and inequality in Bulgaria between 2003 and 2007, driven by structural reforms, macroeconomic stability, and pro-poor growth. However, it also underscores persistent challenges, particularly among children, the elderly, and the unskilled, emphasizing the need for targeted policies to ensure more inclusive growth and development. The findings serve as a benchmark for post-crisis assessments and policy formulations.