20221229-瑞士信贷集团-Sugi_Holdings-Revising_forecasts_Poised_for_OP_growth_in_FY2_24_11页_487kb
报告摘要
Sugi Holdings Summary
Core Content
Sugi Holdings is a major drug store operator in Japan, with a strong focus on prescription drug sales and expanding into broader healthcare sectors. The company is currently undergoing forecast revisions based on its 3Q FY2/23 results, with a target price of ¥6,700 and a Neutral rating.
Main Points
- Forecast Revision: The updated forecasts reflect a decrease in the target price from ¥7,000 to ¥6,700, with a potential return of 9.3%. This is due to a more conservative outlook on the company's performance.
- Business Strategy: Sugi is differentiating itself in the drugstore sector by expanding its healthcare offerings, including drugstores with dispensing functions and home healthcare initiatives.
- Market Trends: The drugstore industry is experiencing heightened competition and a high pace of store openings. The company expects stable growth in the medium term from the rollout of dispensing pharmacies.
- App-Based Membership: The firm is focusing on new measures leveraging app-based membership, which is becoming more organized and integral to its strategy.
- Sales and Profitability: For FY2/23, the company forecasts a 3.4% same-store sales growth for the Sugi Pharmacy business, up from a previous forecast of +2.7% YoY. The overall operating profit (OP) is expected to be ¥31.0bn, with a slight decline from the previous year's ¥31.4bn.
- Valuation and Risks: The target price is based on a residual income model with a cost of capital of 4.9%. Upside risks include recovery in urban store sales and stronger-than-expected rebound in cosmetics sales, while downside risks involve higher-than-expected SG&A costs and a significant sales slump due to increased competition.
Key Financial Metrics
| Metric | FY2/22A | FY2/23E | FY2/24E | FY2/25E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales (¥ bn) | 625.5 | 667.6 | 709.3 | 744.0 |
| Operating Profit (¥ bn) | 32.1 | 31.0 | 31.3 | 31.6 |
| Net Income (¥ bn) | 19.4 | 21.2 | 21.4 | 21.6 |
| EPS (¥) | 313.7 | 351.5 | 354.8 | 358.1 |
| IBES Consensus EPS (¥) | n.a. | 301.8 | 328.1 | 348.2 |
| P/E (x) | 20.7 | 17.4 | 17.3 | 17.1 |
| Dividend Yield (%) | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 7.8 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 6.0 |
| P/B (x) | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| ROE (%) | 9.4 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 8.8 |
Share Price Performance
| Period | Absolute (%) | Relative (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1M | -4.1 | 0.7 |
| 3M | 6.2 | 4.1 |
| 12M | -10.1 | -5.3 |
Investment Scenarios
- Blue Sky Scenario (¥7,900): Assumes a ROE of 9.4% in FY2/27 due to improved capital efficiency, with a cost of equity of 4.9%.
- Grey Sky Scenario (¥5,400): Assumes a ROE of 6.4% in FY2/27 due to tougher competition, with a cost of equity of 4.9%.
Balance Sheet Highlights
- Cash and Cash Equivalents: Expected to increase from ¥62.8bn in FY2/22A to ¥94.6bn in FY2/25E.
- Current Liabilities: Projected to rise from ¥102.6bn to ¥127.0bn by FY2/25E.
- Shareholders' Equity: Forecast to grow from ¥213.9bn to ¥253.3bn by FY2/25E.
- Net Debt/Equity: The company is in a net cash position.
Key Ratios
| Ratio | FY2/22A | FY2/23E | FY2/24E | FY2/25E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROE (%) | 9.4 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 8.8 |
| Net Profit Margin (%) | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 |
| SG&A Ratio (%) | 25.5 | 25.6 | 25.8 | 26.0 |
| Dividend Payout Ratio (%) | 25.5 | 22.8 | 25.4 | 27.9 |
| FCF Yield (%) | -3.4 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 5.5 |
Summary of Forecasts
- Sales Growth: Expected to increase by 6.7% in FY2/23 and 6.2% in FY2/24, with a slower growth rate in FY2/25.
- Operating Profit: Expected to decline slightly in FY2/23 but remain relatively stable in FY2/24 and FY2/25.
- Net Income: Projected to increase by 9.3% in FY2/23 and continue to grow at a modest rate in subsequent years.
- EPS: Expected to rise by 12.0% in FY2/23, with a minor increase in FY2/24 and FY2/25.
- Dividend per Share (DPS): Projected to increase from ¥80.0 in FY2/22A to ¥100.0 in FY2/25E.
Conclusion
Sugi Holdings is navigating a competitive drugstore market by focusing on healthcare expansion and leveraging app-based membership strategies. Despite the updated forecast and lower target price, the company remains positioned for moderate growth, with potential upside from urban store sales and cosmetics rebound, and downside risks from rising SG&A costs and competitive pressures. The residual income model underpins the target price, reflecting the company's outlook on its Total Healthcare Strategy.
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