2022-12-16-兴业投资-超鹰美联储挡不住美元下跌_黄金剧烈震荡抢夺1800_2页_90kb

Overall Summary: This report discusses market conditions on December 15, 2022, following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. It covers fundamental and technical analysis for key currency pairs and commodities, highlighting volatility in the dollar and gold markets amid hawkish but not conclusive Fed policy signals.

Fundamental Analysis:

• The Fed raised interest rates by 50 basis points to 4.25%-4.50%, marking the first slowdown in its加息 cycle after four consecutive 75-basis-point hikes, yet maintaining a hawkish terminal rate expectation above 5%.
• Despite initial dollar strength, the currency weakened as non-yen currencies like the euro and pound recovered quickly after brief declines.
• Gold traded near 1800, showing sharp volatility due to competing forces from Fed policy and economic data.
• Key upcoming events include interest rate decisions from Switzerland, the UK, and the ECB, as well as US retail sales data, which could influence currency movements.

Technical Analysis:

• EUR/USD: Continues an uptrend with bearish divergence on short-term indicators, suggesting potential pullbacks with support around 1.0600 and resistance at 1.0700.
• GBP/USD: Maintains an overall bull trend but with cautious outlook; tested highs with resistance near 1.2445, and pullback supports at 1.2300 could offer buying opportunities.
• USD/JPY: Mild downward pressure; key levels include support at 133.60 and resistance at 136.00, with potential for further dips if not broken.
• Gold: Near-term resistance at 1810 and 1803; bears hold below 1803, with support at 1790 indicating downtrend risks.
• Silver: Continues rising but faces resistance; key levels suggest watching for direction confirmation around 23.40 and 24.00.