> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Annual Outlook on Crude Oil Tanker Market # 原油油轮年度展望 武嘉璐 Wu Jialu 从业资格 Qualification No: F03100682 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0021085 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No: F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No: Z0013632 More English Reports on CITIC Futures Insights: https://www.citicfutures.com # 摘要 Abstract 2025 crude-tanker market experienced a strong year, but with recent sharp correction. The Middle East-Far East TD3C route averaged USD 57.5k/day, up $64.7\%$ YoY, while seaborne crude demand grew solidly. Fleet supply stayed tight; sanctions and floating storage were the short-term swing factors. Global crude-tanker capacity rose only $0.7\%$ . Reviewing fleet size, age profile, sanction list, floating barrels, sailing speed and canal transits, we see a persistently snug mid-term supply picture, with sanctions and storage adding near-term tension. The Venezuelan affair is a modest immediate negative, but geopolitical risk premium underpins freight fundamentals. 2026 outlook: volatile but still tilted to the upside. Freight has corrected sharply, yet global liftings should rebound after the Middle-East Ramadan, and sanctioned-driven tonnage scarcity will linger. We expect 2026 to trade choppy-to-firm. Track geopolitical flare-ups—they can jolt volatility. Key risks: tariff policy, geopolitical conflict, extreme weather. 2025年原油油轮市场表现偏强，近期则显著回调。中东-远东的TD3C航线日租金均值达到5.75万美元/天，同比增 $64.7\%$ 。原油海运需求量整体实现较强劲增长。油轮船队供应偏紧，制裁及储油成为短期关键变量。2025年全球原油油轮船队规模同比增 $0.7\%$ 。我们从船队规模、船龄结构、制裁影响、浮舱运力、船舶航速和运河通行六方面进行梳理，认为中期供给偏紧，短期制裁和储油都将推升供给紧张。委内瑞拉事件短期直接轻微利空油轮航运市场，但地缘风险溢价仍将支撑运价基本面。 2026年原油油轮航运市场或仍将震荡偏强。短期油轮航运市场出现了较为明显的回调，但考虑到全球油运需求整体将在中东斋月后反弹，叠加制裁加剧背景下船队供应仍将偏紧，我们认为2026年原油油轮航运市场整体仍将震荡偏强。仍需关注地缘事件对市场的影响和冲击，油轮航运市场或仍面临较强波动。 风险提示：关税政策、地缘政治冲突、极端天气扰动 # Content 目录 1. Market Review: Daily Hire Climbed Fast in 2025H2, but Retreated Quickly Recently 2. Demand: Freight Rate May Remain at a High Level in General 4 3. Supply: Short-term Storage Tonnage has Become the Key Variable Driving the Market 5 3.1 Fleet Growth Remains Sluggish, and the Fleet is Aging Seriously 5 3.2 Sanctioned tanker fleet expands, floating-storage tonnage rises 5 3.3 Ships sail at High Speeds, Attention Should be Paid to Whether Ships Will Resume Sailing in Suez Canal 6 4. Venezuela situation: U.S. sanctions tightening, exports likely to dip in the near ....7 4.1 Venezuelan exports are transported mainly by VLCCs; 120 tankers regularly call at the country's ports. 7 4.2 Tanker Market Suffer in the Short Term, but Uncertainty Remains in the Floating Capacity and the Volume 7 5.Outlook: crude-tanker market expected to rebound after the current correction.....8 1.市场回顾：2025H2原油油轮日租金快速上行，近期回调压力明显 2.需求端：预计运量整体高位运行 9 3.供应端：短期储油运力成为影响市场主要变量 10 3.1运力规模增速偏低，船队老化现象严重 10 3.2 受制裁油轮规模抬升，浮舱运力整体增加 10 3.3 船舶航速较高，关注后续运河通行量是否反弹 11 4. 委内瑞拉事件：美国制裁收紧，近期出口或下行 12 4.1 委内瑞拉原油出口主要依靠 VLCC，承运船队规模达 120 艘。 4.2 事件影响：短期利空油运市场，但后续浮舱和运量恢复仍有不确定性 ..... 12 5.后续展望：预计原油油轮市场回调后仍将反弹 13 # Charts 图表 Chart 1: Major Crude Tanker Daily Earnings 4 Chart 2:Crude and Clean Tanker Fleet Growth 5 Chart 3: Distribution of VLCC Age 5 Chart 4: Seasonality of Crude Tanker Storage. 6 Chart 5: Sanctioned Tanker Fleet 6 Chart 6: Composition of Ships Transporting Venezuela's Oil. 7 图表1：主要油轮船型日度租金走势 9 图表 2: 原油和成品油轮船队规模增速 图表3：VLCC船龄分布 10 图表 4：原油油轮海上浮舱量季节性 图表5：被制裁油轮规模走势 11 图表 6: 运输委内瑞拉油品的船舶构成对比 Related Reports 报告推荐 * Click on the hyperlink of report titles to read 20251126 China Futures Annual Outlook 中国期货2026年度展望 20250918 Global Shipping Futures：BDI and FFAs 波罗的海航运指数及期货介绍 20250902 Potential Influence of U.S. Shipping Policy Change 美国航运政策变化的可能影响 20241009 China SCFIS(EUROPE) Research Framework 中国集运指数研究框架 # 1. Market Review: Daily Hire Climbed Fast in 2025H2, but Retreated Quickly Recently The crude-tanker market surged and has now quickly retreated; average annual daily hire rate still show a sharp year-on-year increase. Since September 2025, the crude tanker market has been exceptionally strong, with daily rates peaking at 141,300 USD/day, though a pronounced correction has occurred recently. In 2025, the average VLCC daily charter rate on the Middle East–Far East TD3C route reached USD 57,491, up $64.7\%$ year-on-year. Since the start of Q4, the tanker market as a whole has remained robust, but it has fallen rapidly lately. In early January, the VLCC downtrend continued, sliding $36.5\%$ week-on-week; Suezmax and Aframax rates have also turned lower. Chart 1: Major Crude Tanker Daily Earnings Sources: Clarksons, CITIC Futures # 2. Demand: Freight Rate May Remain at a High Level in General Seaborne Crude Demand is expected to be slightly stronger in 2026 than in 2025, with global volumes settling into a high-level plateau. Kpler data show that global crude shipped by sea in 2025 reached 2.17 billion tonnes, up $4.2\%$ year-on-year. Following the second-half 2025 production increase, $\mathrm{OPEC+}$ has indicated that first-quarter output in 2026 will be flat. Since the trade-flow reshuffle that began in 2022, the Ukraine conflict has had only a limited net impact on Russian crude exports. South American shipments stood out in 2025, growing $6.1\%$ , while North America and Africa posted only modest gains. China's crude-import demand picked up in the second half of the year. Venezuelan exports could face some short-term disruptions. Recent geopolitical changes have happened. OPEC+ figures show that Venezuela's crude output stand at 0.93 mb/d for the first eleven months of 2025, about $0.9\%$ of global supply. Average seaborne exports in 2025 were roughly 0.75 mb/d, equal to $1.7\%$ of world crude trade. Kpler data show China and the United States are the main destinations, taking about $50\%$ and $15\%$ respectively. Since Q4 2025, Washington has tightened sanctions on Venezuelan oil. # 3. Supply: Short-term Storage Tonnage has Become the Key Variable Driving the Market. # 3.1 Fleet Growth Remains Sluggish, and the Fleet is Aging Seriously In 2025 the global crude-tanker fleet grew only $0.7\%$ , and the average age of VLCC reaches 13.29 years old. With the world's net-zero timetable, owners remain cautious about ordering newbuilding ships. The fleet currently include 909 VLCCs, totaling 280 million dwt; 156 units are on order, $17.2\%$ of existing capacity—but near-term deliveries are limited. Ageing is pronounced: about one-third of VLCC tonnage is already older than 15 years, and the average age will keep rising, eroding overall fleet productivity. Chart 2: Crude and Clean Tanker Fleet Growth Sources: Clarksons, Citic Futures Chart 3: Distribution of VLCC Age Sources: Clarksons, Citic Futures # 3.2 Sanctioned tanker fleet expands, floating-storage tonnage rises Sanctioned tonnage now approaches $20\%$ . Throughout 2025 the U.S. and EU kept tightening measures on ships carrying Russian, Venezuelan or Iranian oil, sending the share of black-listed tankers steeply higher; sanctioned capacity is now close to 1/5 of the fleet. Washington has shifted from corporate to individual-entity designations, making penalties more surgical. Since 2024, many vessels are sanctioned; as of 15 Dec 2025, 1,746 ships appear on sanctions lists, tankers being the dominant segment. Floating storage has swung higher. A build-up that began in October lifted spot rates in November, but the total has since fallen back. The global floating-storage count peaked around Week 50 and declined into year-end, only to edge up again in early January. Regionally, Far-East floating stocks remain elevated even as other areas shrink, so the support to freight from stored barrels is waning. Part of Venezuela's output is held afloat. Tighter sanctions have slowed fleet turnover; with onshore tanks full, S&P Global notes several Venezuelan cargoes still riding at anchor. Floating-storage levels should be closely watched in 2026. If crude prices retreat in 2026, more tankers could be earmarked for storage, providing an extra lift to freight rates. Chart 4: Seasonality of Crude Tanker Storage Sources: Kpler, Citic Futures Chart 5: Sanctioned Tanker Fleet Sources: Kpler, Citic Futures # 3.3 Ships sail at High Speeds, Attention Should be Paid to Whether Ships Will Resume Sailing in Suez Canal Fleet sailed faster in Q4. The average VLCC speed reached 11.86 kn in December, climbing steadily since mid-year; Aframax speed averaged 10.82 kn, essentially flat over the same period. Higher rates encouraged owners to turn ships faster, releasing extra supply, although speeds have edged back in recent weeks. Ship volumes passing Suez Canal remain depressed, whereas Panama flows are in the normal stage. In 2025, Panama Canal saw an average of 85 tanker transits (8.92 million dwt) per month, back to 2023 levels, but still below 2022. Crude-tanker passages in Suez Canal totaled 1,950 ships in 2025, down $9.7\%$ vs 2024 and $35.1\%$ vs 2023. With Middle-East tensions easing and Houthi attacks on hold, a partial return of tankers to Suez in 2026 could weigh on freight; any jump in canal traffic would also cut overall tonne-mile demand. # 4. Venezuela situation: U.S. sanctions tightening, exports likely to dip in the near # 4.1 Venezuelan exports are transported mainly by VLCCs; 120 tankers regularly call at the country's ports. State-owned PDVSA is the major exporter, shipping from the northern and eastern terminals. According to S&P Global, 120 vessels are involved in the 2025 Venezuelan trade: 57 under sanctions, 63 non-sanction vessels with smaller tonnage share. These ships represent $6.3\%$ of the world VLCC fleet, $1.0\%$ of Suezmaxes, $2.0\%$ of Aframaxes and $2.6\%$ of Panamaxes. Because most cargoes head to the Far East, VLCCs dominate the trade. Chart 6: Composition of Ships Transporting Venezuela's Oil Sources: S&P、Citic Futures # 4.2 Tanker Market Suffer in the Short Term, but Uncertainty Remains in the Floating Capacity and the Volume Impact: bearish for tankers in the near term, but both floating-storage demand and volume recovery remain uncertain. The immediate fall in Venezuelan liftings cuts long-haul VLCC demand and is therefore a short-term negative; replacement barrels will come from the Middle East, West Africa or South America, slightly shortening average hauls. Yet the sanction-driven effective shortage of tonnage is unchanged, so the market's risk premium and tight supply fundamentals remain intact. # 5.Outlook: crude-tanker market expected to rebound after the current correction We expect seaborne crude demand to keep growing steadily. In 2026 global volumes should remain in a high plateau; OPEC+ output is flat near-term and Russian flows are only marginally affected. West-African and North-American liftings have eased seasonally, pushing the market into a short lull. The pace of any Venezuelan crude/fuel-oil comeback is still unclear. High onshore stocks in China—exacerbated by cargoes booked for arrival around the Lunar New Year—and a weaker products crack are slowing import appetite. Fewer spot cargoes are circulating, so freight is under interim downward pressure. We project 2026 global seaborne-crude growth at $1 - 2\%$ . Supply is likely to stay tight. The share of sanctioned tonnage keeps rising and floating storage is climbing, while Ukraine has stepped up strikes on Russian tankers. Fleet growth is minimal and ageing is eroding operating efficiency. Even if the Russia-Ukraine war ends in 2026, trade-flow shifts will largely persist. A sharper oil-price retreat would rekindle storage demand and tighten tanker availability further. In short, the market faces a near-term dip, yet 2026 fundamentals remain firm: sluggish fleet expansion, fast-growing sanctioned capacity, an ageing fleet and geopolitics that keep barrels stored at sea. The Venezuelan affair has trimmed long-haul VLCC demand for now, but the timing of any volume rebound—and its floating-storage implications—is uncertain, leaving a geopolitical risk premium in place. We look for the crude-tanker market to regain strength around March after the current correction. # 1.市场回顾：2025H2原油油轮日租金快速上行，近期回调压力明显 原油油轮航运市场冲高后近期快速回落，年度日租金实现大幅同比抬升。2025年，原油航运市场自9月份以来强势运行，日租金水平最高达到14.13万美元/天，近期发生明显回调。2025年中东-远东的TD3C航线VLCC日租金均值达到57491美元/天，同比增 $64.7\%$ 。四季度以来，油轮航运市场整体强势运行，但近期快速回落。1月初，VLCC跌势维持，环比回落 $36.5\%$ ，苏伊士型、阿芙拉型转跌。 图表7：主要油轮船型日度租金走势 数据来源：克拉克森，中信期货研究所 # 2.需求端：预计运量整体高位运行 2026年预计海运需求量总体仍将略好于2025年。全球原油海运量整体进入高位平台期。据Kpler数据显示，2025年全球原油海运量完成21.70亿吨，同比上涨 $4.2\%$ 。经过2025年下半年的增产，目前OPEC+表态一季度产量预计仍将持平。经过2022年以来贸易流向调整，俄乌冲突整体趋势对俄罗斯原油出口量实际影响整体有限。2025年，南美洲原油海运发运量增速达到 $6.1\%$ 整体表现亮眼，而北美、非洲运量同比增量不突出。我国进口原油需求整体在下半年有所抬升。 委内瑞拉短期出口量或受到一定影响。近期委内瑞拉局势发生变化，据OPEC+统计2025年前11月委内瑞拉原油产量为93.3万桶/日，占全球的 $0.9\%$ 左右。2025年，委内瑞拉原油出口量均值约75万桶/日，占全球原油海运贸易量的 $1.7\%$ 左右。据Kpler数据显示，委内瑞拉出口的主要目的地为中国和美国，占比分别达到 $50\%$ 和 $15\%$ 左右。2025年四季度以来，美国加强了对委内瑞拉油品出口的制裁。 # 3.供应端：短期储油运力成为影响市场主要变量 # 3.1运力规模增速偏低，船队老化现象严重 2025年全球原油油轮船队规模增速仅为 $0.7\%$ ，VLCC平均船龄达13.29年。由于全球碳达峰碳中和进程，航运公司整体对新签船舶订单较为审慎。当前全球共有909条VLCC船，规模达到2.8亿载重吨。VLCC手持订单规模达到156艘，手持订单占船队规模的比例为 $17.2\%$ ，但短期交付量较为有限。目前全球VLCC船队整体老化。平均船龄达到13.29年，船龄超15年以上运力占比约1/3。市场后续平均船龄仍将继续增加。船队老化将降低市场整体周转效率。 图表 8：原油和成品油轮船队规模增速 数据来源:克拉克森,中信期货研究所 图表 9: VLCC 船龄分布 数据来源:克拉克森,中信期货研究所 # 3.2 受制裁油轮规模抬升，浮舱运力整体增加 受制裁油轮船队规模接近 $20\%$ 。2025年以来，欧美持续加强对运输俄罗斯、委内瑞拉和伊朗等油品船舶的制裁，被制裁油轮船队规模陡峭上行。受制裁船队规模比例近 $20\%$ 。当前美国将制裁从企业转向企业和个人，总体制裁更加精准。全球受制裁的船队规模从2024年以来整体增长斜率抬升，截至2025年12月15日有1746艘船舶被列入制裁清单，其中油轮船队是最主要的船型。2025年12月初，VLCC、苏伊士型、阿芙拉型、LR2、LR1和MR型被列入制裁的船舶比例分别占现有船队的 $16\%$ 、 $16\%$ 、 $33\%$ 、 $15\%$ 、 $11\%$ 和 $7\%$ ，使得船队整体供应量更加紧张。 海上浮舱规模震荡上行。10月以来，全球油轮浮舱规模抬升，助推了11月以来现货市场运价上行，然近期整体回落明显。分趋势来看，海上浮舱规模在50周左右见顶，随后开始整体回落，但1月初整体浮舱规模再度上行。同时，从结构来看，年末以来油轮浮舱规模整体回落，但远东地区海上浮舱规模整体依然偏高，与其他地区整体规模形成差异。由于浮舱规模回落，对油轮航运市场支撑力度边际转弱。 委内瑞拉部分油品以浮舱形式存在。一方面，由于制裁加剧，全球油轮船队整体周转放缓。另一方 面，由于当前运输受到一定扰动，委内瑞拉陆上库罐基本装满，据标普统计委内瑞拉仍有部分油轮浮舱规模整体高度运行。 关注2026年浮舱运力规模。2026年，若原油价格回落，则市场或将使用更多油轮用于浮舱储油，从而带动市场运价上行。 图表 10：原油油轮海上浮舱量季节性 数据来源：Kpler，中信期货研究所 图表 11：被制裁油轮规模走势 数据来源：Kpler，中信期货研究所 # 3.3 船舶航速较高，关注后续运河通行量是否反弹 四季度以来船队航速提升。12月全球VLCC航速平均值达到11.86节，从下半年以来呈现逐步抬升的趋势。12月阿芙拉型航速平均值达到10.82节，下半年以来整体环比基本持平。随着运价上行，航运公司倾向于加快船舶周转，以释放更多供应。近期市场航速边际小幅回落。 苏伊士运河通行量仍偏低，巴拿马运河通行水平基本正常。2025年，巴拿马运河年度油轮通行量均值达到85艘、892万载重吨，基本恢复到2023年的整体水平。但当前通行量仍较2022年回落。2025年苏伊士运河原油油轮通行量达到1950艘，相比2024和2023年规模分别同比下跌 $9.7\%$ 和 $35.1\%$ 。当前中东局势整体缓和，胡塞武装对船舶袭击暂缓，若2026年部分油轮重返苏伊士运河，或将带动运价整体回调。若船舶通行量增长，仍将降低船队整体海运周转量。 # 4.委内瑞拉事件：美国制裁收紧，近期出口或下行 # 4.1 委内瑞拉原油出口主要依靠VLCC，承运船队规模达120艘 委内瑞拉出口油轮船型以VLCC为主，承运船队规模达120艘。委内瑞拉国家石油公司（Venezuelan National Oil Company，PDVSA）是最主要的出口实体，委内瑞拉原油出口主要集中在该国的北部和东部港口。据标普统计，2025年承运委内瑞拉的油轮船队规模达到120艘，其中被制裁的运力达到57艘、而未被制裁的运力规模达到63艘，被制裁的运力规模较未被制裁的运力规模略小。从承运委内瑞拉油品的船舶数量来看，分别占到当前全球VLCC、苏伊士型、阿芙拉型和巴拿马型的比例为 $6.3\%$ 、 $1.0\%$ 、 $2.0\%$ 和 $2.6\%$ 。由于委内瑞拉原油出口主要目的地为远东等地，因此VLCC是最主流的船型。 图表 12：运输委内瑞拉油品的船舶构成对比 数据来源：标普、中信期货研究所 # 4.2 事件影响：短期利空油运市场，但后续浮舱和运量恢复仍有不确定性 短期委内瑞拉事件一方面降低了长距离VLCC运输需求，但后续运量恢复的节奏和对浮舱运力规模的影响仍有一定不确定性。短期委内瑞拉出口量下行且带动相对长航线运量降低，对市场形成一定的利空影响，进口主体或从中东、西非、南美等地替代，平均运距或有一定下调。但从地缘溢价的角度，由于船队被制裁的因素仍在显现，因此油轮航运市场整体供给偏紧的局面没有改变。我们认为风险溢价和船队偏紧依然支撑油轮航运市场基本面。 # 5.后续展望：预计原油油轮市场回调后仍将反弹 预计原油海运需求仍将维持稳定增长。2026年我们认为全球原油海运量预计整体高位运行。短期OPEC+产量维持稳定，俄罗斯原油生产和出口整体受到影响有限。短期西非、北美出货量整体回调，市场进入相对淡季。仍需观察近期委内瑞拉原油、燃料油出口的边际变化。由于国内需求和中东斋月影响，国内油轮航运市场库存偏高，叠加当前租船将在春节前后到货或受到库存影响。由于成品油裂解价差整体回落，国内进口动力边际放缓。现货端货盘减少，市场仍面临一定回调压力。2026年，预计全球原油海运需求端增速预计在 $1 - 2\%$ 之间。 供给端偏紧张格局或较难改变。短期受到被制裁船队规模抬升和海上浮舱库存持续抬升影响，供应端依然偏紧。乌克兰近期加强了对俄罗斯油轮打击。叠加未来船队规模增长放缓，以及船队老化，船队供给相对偏紧。2026年，关注原油价格回落带来的储油需求对原油运费带动，供给端增速依然偏紧。即便俄乌冲突在2026年得到解决，原油贸易格局已发生深刻调整，较难恢复至此前状态。 综上，我们认为原油油轮航运市场短期整体仍面临回调，但2026年原油油轮供应端受船队规模增速放缓、被制裁运力规模快速抬升叠加船队老龄化降低市场运营效率，叠加地缘政治格局仍将使得浮舱运力被持续占用。一旦油价发生较快回撤，也会带动浮舱运力规模再度上行。短期委内瑞拉事件一方面降低了长距离VLCC运输需求，对海运周转距离形成一定影响，但后续运量恢复的节奏和对浮舱运力规模的影响仍有一定不确定性，地缘风险溢价仍将对市场形成一定支撑。我们认为2026年原油油轮航运市场在近期回调后，从3月份起整体或仍将维持偏强运行的趋势。 # CITIC Futures International Research Reports # https://www.citicfutures.com/Insights # 中信期货国际化研究系列报告 # Regular Reports 定期报告 20251126 China Futures Annual Outlook 中国期货2026年度展望 China Futures Monthly Report 中国期货运行月报 China Commodity Futures Cross Border Arbitrage Weekly Report 中国商品期货跨境套利策略周报 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 # Special Topic专题报告 # 【Financial】金融 人民币外汇期货风险管理应用 专题报告20251219 20251218 China Fiscal Policy Outlook: Moderate Expansion? 中国2026财政政策展望：如何理解适度扩张 20251217 China Monetary Policy Outlook: Moderate Easing? 2026年中国货币政策展望：如何理解适度宽松 20251121 Drivers Analysis and Risk Management of the CNY's Strength 人民币汇率偏强原因分析及风险管理 20250917 China Futures Member Position Factor Strategy 中国期货会员持仓因子策略优化 20250805 Optimization of Short Strategy For China Commodity Options 中国商品期权卖权策略优化思路 20250731 China Equity Index and ETF Options Arbitrage Strategy 中国股指期权与ETF期权套利策略 20250728 Enhancement of Covered Call Strategy for China Equity Index Futures 中国股指期权备兑策略优化 20250626 China Gold Options Volatility and Strategies 中国黄金期权波动率及策略配置 20250311 Foreign Private Funds in China Market 外资私募进入中国市场的机遇与挑战 # 【Commodity】商品 20260112 Follow-up on Rapeseed Calendar Spread Strategy 菜油菜粕月差策略跟进 20260109 Lithium Carbonate Annual Outlook Remains Positive 2026年锂价展望：维持乐观 20260101 Asset Allocation Note Metals, Equity and Forex 资产配置纪要：金属、权益、外汇 20251222 The Dawn of the $61\%$ Era for Iron Ore 铁矿石“ $61\%$ 时代”正在开启 20251220 Rapeseed Oil & Meal Calendar Spread Analysis 菜油菜粕月差策略 20251219 China Soybean Futures Main Contract Rotation Pattern 大豆期货主力合约轮换分析 20251211 Coal-Power Long-Term Contract Interpretation 2026 年煤电长协解读 20251209 China Diesel Consumption Forecast 2026-2030年中国柴油消费展望 20251128 China Iron Ore Futures Basis Review 中国铁矿石期货基差复盘 20251127 China Iron Ore Futures Delivery Introduction 中国铁矿石期货交割规则介绍 20251107 Solid-State Battery Introduction 固态电池基础知识 20251106 US LNG Prices May Rise on Strong Export 出口强劲或推升美国气价 20251105 Iron Ore Four Major Mines Quarterly Report Summary 铁矿石全球四大矿山季报解读 202501104 How to Understand China Gold Tax Policy Change 中国黄金税收政策调整解读 20250929 European Gasoil Crack Spread Outlook 欧洲柴油裂解价差展望 20250916 Chinese Port Inventories Pressure SC-Brent Spread 中国港口库存施压SC-Brent价差 20250807 Zinc Short Strategy Due To Surplus Expectation 锌过剩预期下的策略分析 20250806 Calender Spread Strategies for Lithium Carbonate Futures 碳酸锂期货月差策略推荐 <table><tr><td>【Emerging Industry】新兴行业 20251226 Energy and Carbon Annual Outlook 2026 能源双碳年度展望 20251215 New Energy Vehicle Annual Outlook 2026 年全球新能源车销量展望 20251212 Solar PV Industry Annual Outlook 2026 年光伏年度展望 20251208 Compliance Demand May Drive Carbon Prices to Rebound 履约需求或使碳价筑底反弹 20251204 The Impact of Document No. 136 on PV Projects 136 号文如何影响光伏项目 20251022 Quarterly Outlook of Energy, Power, Carbon 能源电碳行业展望 20250808 Why Anti-Involution for PV Industry 光伏反内卷原因分析 20250918 Global Shipping Futures: BDI and FFAs 波罗的海航运指数及期货介绍 20250902 Potential Influence of U.S. Shipping Policy Change 美国航运政策变化的可能影响</td></tr><tr><td>Policy Reading 政策解读</td></tr><tr><td>【Macro 宏观】 20251215 Insights from the Central Economic Work Conference 中央经济工作会议学习体会 20251210 Policy Readings on the Politburo Meeting in December 2025年12月政治局会议联合点评 20251113 Commentary on China Monetary Policy Report Q3 2025三季度货币政策执行报告点评 202501030 Policy Readings on the “15th Five-Year Plan”“十五五”规划建议联合点评 20250801 Politburo Meeting Influence on Futures Prices 7月政治局会议对期货价格影响 20250514 China-U.S. Tariff Suspension Influence on China Futures Prices 中美关税暂缓对中国期货价格影响 20250313 Influence of Geoenvironmental shift on commodities 地缘变局对商品价格影响分析 20250120 China Economic Annual Outlook 中国经济年度展望 20250114 Impact of “Two New” policy on China's Domestic Demand “两新”政策对中国内需影响分析 20241109 Policy Readings of NPC Standing Committee Meeting in Nov. 11月人大常委会新闻发布会解读 20241018 Policy Readings of China SCIO Press Conference on 17th Oct. 10月17日国新办发布会解学习体会 20241013 Policy Readings of China Finance Ministry Press Conference on 11th Oct. 10月财政部发布会学习体会 【Futures 期货】 20250723 Anti-Involution Policy Reading and Influence on Futures Prices “反内卷”政策对期货价格影响 20250714 SHFE's Internationalization Reforms Interpretation 上海期货交易所国际化新规解读 20250622 China Accelerates Futures Market Opening Up 中国期货对外开放再提速</td></tr><tr><td>Research Framework 研究框架</td></tr><tr><td>【China Futures 中国期货】Macro Economy/Assets Allocation /CTA/Equity Index/ Government Bond/Exchange Rate/HK Equity index / Hang Seng Biotech Index/Crude Oil/Gold/Copper/Iron Ore/Steels/Lithium/Silicon Metal /LPG/PTA/LLDPE/Methanol/Urea/Shipping Freight /Live Hog/Soybean Meal/Soybean Oil/Palm Oil/Rapeseed Meal/Rapeseed Oil/Corn/Natural Rubber/Zinc/Silver 宏观经济/资产配置/CTA/股指/香港股指/国债/汇率/恒生生物科技指数/原油/黄金/铜/铁矿石/钢材/锂/工业硅/LPG/PTA/塑料/甲醇/尿素/生猪/豆粕/豆油/棕榈油/菜粕/菜油/玉米/天然橡胶/锌/白银 【Global Futures 海外期货】U.S. Economy / U.S. Treasury Bond/ U.S. Corn / US Dollar Index / BDI and FFAs 美国经济/美国国债/美国玉米/美元指数/航运指数 【Cross-Border Arbitrage 跨境套利】Crude Oil/Iron Ore/Soybean/Copper/Rubber/Plam Oil 原油/铁矿石/大豆/铜/橡胶/棕榈油 Cross-Border Arbitrage Statistical Regression Strategy Model 跨境套利统计回归策略模型 【Risk Management 风险管理】Iron Ore/Plastic/Steel/Freight/Fuel Oil 铁矿石/塑料/钢材/燃油/航运 【长期复盘】全球大宗商品百年回顾/全球经济展望二十年大复盘/全球炼厂利润二十年回顾 /全球炼油产能中长期展望/世界石油海运要道/国际原油价格二十年复盘/美国天然气价格二十年复盘</td></tr><tr><td>【国别手册】亚太：中国/印度/日本/韩国/澳大利亚/新加坡马来西亚/印度尼西亚；中东：沙特/伊朗/伊拉克/科威特/阿联酋/卡塔尔；美洲：巴西/委内瑞拉/圭亚那/加拿大；欧洲：俄罗斯/挪威/英国/法国；非洲：利比亚/尼日利亚/阿尔及利亚/安哥拉/刚果/南非/苏丹/南苏丹/埃及</td></tr><tr><td>Trading Manual 交易手册</td></tr><tr><td>Introduction on China Futures Market 中国期货市场概况</td></tr><tr><td>Introduction on China Futures Exchanges 中国期货交易所介绍</td></tr><tr><td>China Futures and Derivatives Law 中国期货法律法规</td></tr><tr><td>China Futures/Options Contracts Manual 中国期货合约手册</td></tr><tr><td>China QFII Policy Interpretation 合格境外投资者制度详解</td></tr><tr><td>China Futures Overseas Brokerage Policy Interpretation 中国期货境外经纪机构制度详解</td></tr><tr><td>Global Futures/Options Contracts Manual 海外期货/期权合约手册</td></tr><tr><td>【海外期货概况】股指/国债/汇率/能源/金属/农业</td></tr><tr><td>【境外交易所概况】中国香港/东南亚/欧洲/北美</td></tr></table> # 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