> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # CMBI Credit Commentary Summary ## Core Content Overview This document provides a detailed market update and analysis on fixed income instruments, focusing on credit performance and market movements in Asia, particularly in China and Southeast Asia. It includes insights from the trading desk, analyst comments, and macroeconomic news affecting the credit landscape. ## Key Market Movements - **Asian IG Space**: Overall spread widened by 5-10bps. Better selling was observed on LGENSO, HYNMTR, and NTT, while PBs bought front-end perps. - **FTLNHD 27-29**: Edged 0.2-0.4pt higher. - **GLPSP 4.6 Perp**: Lost 0.9pt. - **FAEACO 12.814 Perp/LIFUNGs**: Lost 0.2-0.4pt. - **ZHOSHK 28**: Rose 1.6pts last Friday and marked down 0.5pt this morning. - **LNGFOR 27-32/FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 26-29**: Prices changed by 0.3pt lower to 0.2pt higher. - **WESCHI 28-29**: Lost 0.5pt. - **SE Asian Perps**: GLPSP Perps and GLPCHI 29 gained 0.1-0.8pt, while TOPTB/PTTGC Perps and VEDLN 28-33s weakened. - **KR Space**: HYNMTR, HYUELE, and new issues LGENSO 31s traded 2-4bps wider. - **Japanese and Yankee AT1s/Insurance Subs**: Down by up to 1.0pt in the belly and long end. - **USD LGFVs**: Lower-yielding/IG USD LGFVs closed 50-70bps wider on the bid side, while CNH LGFVs were more resilient. ## Analyst Comments ### ZHOSHK: Silver Linings of the Weak FY25 Results - **Market Reaction**: Overreaction to the profit warning; ZHOSHK 5.98 01/30/28 dropped up to 6.5pts to 93.1. - **Credit Spread**: Widened up to 606bps since the profit warning announcement. - **Company Fundamentals**: Continued positive FCF generation, net debt reduction, and comfortable liquidity (cash/ST debts ratio of 1.2x). - **Positive Outlook**: Despite weak FY25 results, the company's narrowing gross losses, lower MSRP, and growth in after-sale services are seen as positive signs. - **Rating**: BBB by S&P with a negative outlook. - **Recommendation**: Maintain buy on ZHOSHK 5.98 01/30/28 due to its good risk-return profile and potential for improved operating performance. ### LNGFOR: Consistent Positive FCF Underpins Credit Profile - **Operating Performance**: FY25 revenue fell 23.7% yoy to RMB97.3bn, with property sales down 30.0% and non-property sales stable. - **Gross Profit**: Declined 53.8% to RMB9.4bn, with GPM compressed to 9.7% from 16.0%. - **Non-Property Sales**: GPM remained at 53.4%. - **Property Operation Income**: Flat at RMB26.8bn, covering 5.0x of gross interest expenses. - **Investment Properties**: 99 malls in operation, with 97% occupancy rate. - **Debt Management**: Extended average debt tenor to 12.1 years, reduced average funding cost to 3.5% from 4.0%. - **Net Debt**: Reduced to RMB138.6bn as of Dec'25. - **Future Outlook**: Positive FCF expected in FY26 (RMB5-10bn), supporting further debt reduction and credit improvement. - **Recommendation**: Maintain buy on LNGFORs due to their strong financial flexibility and strategic focus. ## Macro News Recap - **Stock Market**: S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq all declined on last Friday. - **UST Yields**: 2/5 year yields fell, while 10/30 year yields rose. - **Yield Levels**: 2/5/10/30 year yields at 3.88%/4.06%/4.44%/4.98%. ## News and Market Color - **Onshore Primary Issuances**: 140 credit bonds issued last Friday totaling RMB74bn; month-to-date total RMB1,838bn raised, a 6.7% yoy increase. - **Australia Oversight**: Increased oversight of the private credit industry with more detailed data requested weekly. - **BNKEA**: Bank of East Asia issued RMB250mn dim sum bond BNKEA 2.95 09/09/29. - **CHIOIL**: China Oil and Gas FY25 revenue down 14% yoy to HKD15.2bn. - **FTLNHD/FUTLAN**: Seazen Group FY25 revenue down 40% yoy to RMB53.1bn. - **GRNCH**: Greentown plans to issue RMB1bn onshore 3-year MTN. - **JD.com**: Ceconomy purchase not approved by Austrian regulators. - **IHFLIN**: Moody's upgraded Sammaan Capital to B1 from B2 due to RBI approval. - **LASUDE**: Lai Sun Development adjusted EBITDA down 23% yoy. - **PCORPM**: San Miguel CEO said Petron is available for repurchase by the Philippine government. - **SOFTBK**: SoftBank Group raised USD40bn bridge loan for investment in OpenAI. - **VEDLN**: Vedanta Ltd received INR25.8bn (cUSD271.7mn) loan from lenders including Barclays and Citicorp. - **WESCHI**: Fitch revised outlook of West China Cement to negative due to uncertainty in FCF improvement. ## Important Disclosures - **Investment Risks**: There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. Past performance does not indicate future results. - **No Individual Advice**: CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice. - **Use of Report**: The report is for the use of intended recipients only and may not be reproduced or distributed without prior written consent. - **Legal Responsibility**: CMBIGM accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. - **Distribution Restrictions**: The report may not be provided to persons outside the defined categories without prior consent. ## Contact Information - **Fixed Income Department**: - Tel: 852 3657 6235 / 852 3900 0801 - Email: fis@cmbi.com.hk - **Analysts**: - Glenn Ko, CFA: (852) 3657 6235 | glennko@cmbi.com.hk - Cyrena Ng, CPA: (852) 3900 0801 | cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk - Yujing Zhang: (852) 3900 0830 | zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk