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CEEMEA Inflation Monitor Summary (May 27, 2025)

Overall Inflation Trends in April 2025:

• Headline inflation decreased significantly across the CEEMEA region, with mixed surprises. CEE-3 countries (Poland, Hungary, Czechia) saw substantial declines, while Israel experienced an unexpected rise due to a one-time increase.
• Core inflation weakened in Czechia and Poland but rose in Ukraine; it generally remained below headline inflation across most countries, reflecting ongoing disinflation.

Key National Developments:

• CEE-3 Countries: Poland (down 0.6pp to 4.3% YoY), Hungary (down 0.5pp to 4.2% YoY), Czechia (down 0.9pp to 1.8% YoY).
• Israel: Inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.6% YoY from 3.3% YoY, driven by a 16% airline fee hike, but core inflation slightly decreased.
• Other Countries: Russia and Turkey showed marginal declines; South Africa and Ukraine had moderate increases; emerging markets like Ghana, Nigeria, and Kenya saw inflation easing amid regional factors.

Outlook and Forecasts:

• Inflationary pressures are weakening broadly, supporting dovish monetary policies, except in Turkey and Russia where forecasts remain high.
• Core inflation dynamics improved, but domestic and external factors like stable exchange rates and lower oil prices continue to influence trends.
• Forecasted inflation for 2025: Below consensus in most countries (e.g., 9.0% for Ukraine, 3.1% for South Africa), with Israel slightly above at 3.3% YoY.

Supporting Analysis:

• Effects from oil, FX, and food shocks contributed to mixed inflation momentum.
• Market expectations and government measures vary, with some understated disinflation effects noted.

This summary highlights the divergence in inflation trends and the region's overall move toward lower inflation.