2004年-世界发展银行全球_Do_Macroeconomic_Crises_Always_Slow_Human_Capital_Accumulation__24页_193kb

Summary of "Do Macroeconomic Crises Always Slow Human Capital Accumulation?"

Core Content

This article investigates the impact of the 1988-92 macroeconomic crisis in Peru on the schooling and employment decisions of children in urban areas. It challenges the common assumption that macroeconomic crises invariably reduce human capital accumulation, particularly among the poor, by presenting evidence from detailed household surveys conducted in 1985/86, 1991, and 1997.

Main Findings

• School Attendance: There is no significant decline in school attendance during the crisis. Urban attendance rates for children aged 6-11 remained high, at 97.5% in 1997, and for children aged 12-17, attendance was also stable, at 90% or higher.
• Employment and Schooling Combination: The proportion of children who are both employed and in school declined significantly during the crisis. This decline suggests that children had less time to work while attending school, possibly due to reduced employment opportunities or increased school attendance.
• Educational Attainment: Children exposed to the crisis had higher mean educational attainment than those not exposed. This implies that even though school attendance was not affected, the quality or duration of schooling may have improved.
• Crisis Exposure: The number of years a child was in school during the crisis period is positively correlated with the number of grades completed. The more years of exposure, the more schooling children completed.
• No Generational Poverty Transmission: Despite the economic downturn, there is no evidence that the crisis led to lower educational outcomes for children, suggesting that the crisis did not transmit poverty across generations in terms of schooling.

Key Theoretical Considerations

• Ambiguity of Crisis Effects: Theoretical models suggest that macroeconomic crises may have ambiguous effects on human capital accumulation. While they may lower the opportunity cost of schooling (by reducing employment opportunities), they can also increase borrowing constraints and reduce household resources.
• Crisis-Related Changes in Marginal Costs and Benefits: The crisis may have affected the timing and intensity of schooling by altering the marginal costs (e.g., through reduced access to credit) and marginal benefits (e.g., through changes in future earnings potential).
• Variability Across Countries: The article notes that the effect of macroeconomic crises on schooling varies significantly by country and crisis type. The poorest countries tend to experience the largest effects.

Empirical Evidence from Other Countries

• United States (Great Depression): Secondary school enrollment increased significantly.
• Latin America (Moderate Crises): Enrollment decisions were largely unaffected.
• Argentina (1990s-2000s Crisis): No change in enrollment, but negative effects on schooling quality due to teacher absenteeism.
• Indonesia (1998 Financial Crisis): Minimal impact on schooling outcomes.
• Rural India: School attendance was responsive to income fluctuations, but not associated with significant loss of human capital.
• Côte d'Ivoire: Rainfall shocks had large negative effects on school enrollment.

Methodology and Data

• Data Sources: The study uses the Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) surveys from 1985/86, 1991, and 1997.
• Sample Limitations: The 1991 survey was limited to urban areas due to dangerous conditions in rural regions, making the sample less representative of the entire country.
• Variables Constructed:
  • School Attendance: Based on whether children were attending school or had attended in the last 12 months.
  • Employment: Defined as working for a business, government, or on a farm, or as an unpaid family member.
  • Crisis Exposure: Measured by the number of years a child was between 6 and 17 during the crisis period (1988-92).
• Regression Analysis:
  • Probit Regressions: Used to estimate the probability of attending school or being employed.
  • OLS Regressions: Used to analyze the number of grades completed, with crisis exposure as a key explanatory variable.

Conclusion

The 1988-92 crisis in Peru did not lead to a decline in school attendance, but it did affect the combination of schooling and employment. Children who were exposed to the crisis had higher educational attainment, which may be due to increased time spent in school and reduced employment. These findings suggest that macroeconomic crises may not always have negative effects on human capital accumulation, and that policy responses and household adaptability can mitigate some of the adverse impacts.