20230929-农银国际证券-港股市场一周回顾_14页_2mb

Hong Kong and A-Share Market Overview (September 2023)

Market Performance

• Hong Kong and A-share markets saw declines in Hong Kong and A-shares indices for the year-to-date, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index down about 10% year-to-date. Both markets exhibit significant sector divergence.
• Energy resources and telecommunications services sectors outperformed, with their indices rising significantly, driven by factors such as rising oil prices and digital economic growth. Telecommunications companies, particularly those with high dividend yields, attracted investor interest.

Key Economic Trends

• PMI data for major economies in the U.S., Europe, Japan, and Australia showed a downward trend, indicating a challenging fourth-quarter outlook due to weakening services and manufacturing sectors. This may threaten economic growth.
• Rising oil prices in the fourth quarter could amplify inflation and burden global finance, leading to higher bond yields and impacts on currency valuations and emerging market debt.

Sector Analysis

• Real estate industry faces headwinds, with "Golden September-October" sales expected to be lackluster despite government support measures. Residential construction remains strong, potentially benefiting home appliance demand due to deferred delivery issues.
• Industrial profits rebounded in a V-shape pattern, likely due to recovery in key industries like equipment manufacturing and renewable energy, though issues in mining and chemicals sectors persist.

Upcoming Events and Outlook

• A-share markets will be closed for the National Day holiday around October, affecting cross-border trades. Expectations focus on upcoming PMI data, residential sales, and automotive or battery supply chain developments.
• key variables to monitor include oil prices, economic indicators, and continued government support measures to stabilize markets.