2015年-德勤全球_2018_Global_life_sciences_outlook_41页_1mb

2018 Global Life Sciences Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Global Life Sciences Outlook outlines the transformative opportunities and challenges facing the life sciences industry in the context of the fourth industrial revolution. It emphasizes the need for companies to embrace, build, and grow to stay competitive. Key areas of focus include technological advancements, geopolitical shifts, and strategic investments in research, partnerships, and regulatory innovation.

Main Trends and Growth Areas

Pharmaceutical Drugs

• Global prescription drug sales are forecast to grow at a 6.5% CAGR through 2022, reaching $1.06 trillion.
• R&D investment is expected to grow at 2.4% CAGR, reaching $181 billion by 2022.
• Oncology is the leading therapy area in sales, projected to account for 17.5% of prescription drug and OTC sales by 2022.
• Orphan drugs are expected to grow to $209 billion in 2022, despite high costs and pricing scrutiny.
• Biosimilars are gaining traction, with 25-35 expected to be on the US market by 2020. The Asia-Pacific region, led by China, is a key player in biosimilar development.

Personalized Medicine

• The global personalized medicine market is expected to reach $2.4 trillion by 2022, growing at a 11.8% CAGR.
• AI and real-world data are accelerating the development of personalized medicines, particularly in oncology.

MedTech

• Global medtech sales are forecast to grow at 5.1% CAGR, reaching $521.9 billion by 2022.
• In vitro diagnostics will remain the largest segment, with sales of $70 billion.
• R&D investment in medtech is expected to reach $33.5 billion by 2022, with a decline in R&D as a percentage of sales from 6.9% to 6.4%.
• 3D printing and blockchain are emerging technologies that are transforming manufacturing and supply chain processes.

Key Strategies for Life Sciences Companies

Embrace Exponential Changes in Technology

• The fourth industrial revolution is driving AI, automation, and digital health innovations.
• 3D printing is being explored for customized patient treatments and manufacturing efficiency.
• Gene therapy is advancing, especially in rare diseases, with 34 therapies in the final FDA approval stage and 470 in clinical trials.
• Cloud computing is becoming essential for data scalability, real-time analytics, and managing real-world data.
• Blockchain is being tested for secure data sharing, supply chain transparency, and tracking drug adherence.

Build an Adaptable Organization

• Companies must adapt to new work models and data-driven operations.
• Cultural shifts toward courage and innovation are critical to counter uncertainty.
• Data integrity is vital to maximize the value of data and support decision-making.
• Patient trust and centricity are key to improving care and engagement.
• Regulatory agility is necessary to navigate evolving standards and digital health integration.

Grow Through Partnerships

• Strategic alliances and new operating models are important for accessing external expertise and technologies.
• M&A activity is expected to increase in 2018, with a focus on technology-oriented acquisitions.
• Venture financing in medtech is rising, but innovation challenges persist for large firms.

Geopolitical and Regulatory Considerations

Pricing Pressures and Value-Based Contracting

• Pricing and market access are top priorities for 2018.
• Value-based contracting is gaining traction, with payers and regulators seeking evidence of patient outcomes.
• Companies are rebalancing portfolios to avoid over-reliance on high-priced products.

Tax and Regulatory Reforms

• The US tax reform reduces orphan drug credits by 40%, but companies are unlikely to change strategies due to market exclusivity, faster approvals, and waived fees.
• The repeal of the medical device excise tax in the US is seen as beneficial, but regulatory uncertainty remains.
• The UK's Brexit implications include patent, data protection, and regulatory changes, with the government working to maintain the UK as a pharma hub.

Key Takeaways

• Technological innovation is reshaping the life sciences landscape, with AI, 3D printing, and blockchain playing pivotal roles.
• Geopolitical changes, including tax reforms and regulatory shifts, are influencing investment and operational strategies.
• R&D returns remain challenging, with high costs and pricing pressures.
• Partnerships and M&A are key drivers for growth and innovation.
• Patient-centricity and data integrity are becoming central to business models and trust-building.

Appendix Highlights

• Figure 1 shows the growth of global prescription drug sales.
• Figure 2 illustrates R&D returns over time.
• Figure 3 ranks countries by biosimilar pipelines.
• Figure 4 highlights the top 15 therapy categories by sales.
• Figure 5 shows medtech sales growth.
• Figure 6 compares partnership activity in biopharma and medtech.
• Figure 7 and Figure 8 focus on gene therapy and technologies in clinical trials.
• Figure 9 and Figure 10 discuss real-world evidence and blockchain in pharma.

Conclusion

The life sciences industry is at a crossroads, facing both opportunities and challenges driven by technological advancements, geopolitical shifts, and evolving regulatory environments. Companies must embrace change, build resilient and adaptive organizations, and grow through strategic partnerships to remain competitive in the future.