> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Summary of "Resilient European aerospace & defense supply chains: Addressing critical raw material vulnerabilities" ## Core Content The report highlights the growing strategic importance of critical raw materials (CRMs) in the aerospace and defense (A&D) sector, emphasizing the need for coordinated government-industry action to secure supply and mitigate risks. With increasing demand from electrification, clean energy, and advanced technologies, and underinvestment in extraction and processing, raw materials have become a critical risk factor for A&D supply chains. ## Main Points ### 1. **Critical Raw Materials (CRMs) as Strategic Assets** - Raw materials are essential for A&D platforms, including air, sea, land, and space systems. - The EU has identified 34 CRMs, while NATO has pinpointed 12 that are most critical for defense readiness and technological edge. - These materials include titanium, rare earth elements (REEs), and others used in structural components, propulsion, batteries, and electronic systems. ### 2. **Categories of A&D-Critical Raw Materials** - **Base Materials**: Aluminum (Al) and Titanium (Ti) are used in structural and engine components, with titanium being especially critical for high-performance applications. - **Additive Materials**: Cobalt (Co), lithium (Li), manganese (Mn), platinum (Pt), tungsten (W), and graphite are used in engine coatings, alloys, and armor. - **Battery Materials**: Cobalt, lithium, manganese, and graphite are key components in electric propulsion systems, especially for drones and battery-electric platforms. - **Instrument Materials**: Beryllium (Be), gallium (Ga), germanium (Ge), and REEs are crucial for electronic systems, sensors, and electric motors. ### 3. **Root Causes of Shortages** - Europe and the West lack control over the upstream value chain for most CRMs, with extraction and processing concentrated in countries like China and Russia. - Geopolitical tensions and supply chain dependencies on these countries pose significant risks. - The concentration of REE processing in China (90% of global capacity) and the limited availability of high-purity titanium sponge outside of China and Russia exacerbate the problem. ### 4. **Key Materials and Their Risks** #### **Titanium** - **Demand**: Expected to grow significantly over the next decade, with A&D-related demand reaching 600–700 kilotons. - **Supply Risks**: High-purity titanium sponge is sourced mainly from China and Russia, creating geopolitical exposure. Current Western exposure to Russian-origin forged components is around 20%. - **Mitigation**: Recycling initiatives in France and the U.S. are advancing, but a supply gap of 100 kilotons could emerge without faster scaling of production and recycling. #### **Rare Earth Elements (REEs)** - **Demand**: Estimated to reach several kilotons over the next decade, primarily for NdFeB magnets in electric and hybrid propulsion systems. - **Supply Risks**: China dominates REE processing and magnet production, with limited capacity elsewhere. Demand for Tb and Dy remains unmet. - **Mitigation**: Government support and strategic investments (e.g., U.S. DoD's partnership with MP Materials) are critical. Recycling is not yet mature enough to significantly offset supply shortfalls in the near term. ## Key Solutions ### 1. **Increase Production Capacity** - Scaling up mining, refining, and processing of raw materials is essential. - Requires significant investment and potential re-evaluation of environmental regulations. ### 2. **Large-Scale Recycling** - Recovery of materials from end-of-life aircraft, engines, and drones can create a reliable domestic stockpile. - Challenges include limited maturity of recycling technologies and the difficulty of aggregating sufficient scrap volumes. ### 3. **Development of Substitutes** - Advanced alloys, composites, and redesigned components can replace scarce elements. - Substitution may not be feasible for all applications due to performance and reliability constraints. ## Strategic Inflection Point - The A&D sector is at a critical juncture where securing raw materials requires both government and industry collaboration. - No single entity can address this alone; a coordinated approach is necessary to ensure long-term supply chain resilience. ## Uncertain Outlook and Call to Action - The industry faces increasing uncertainty due to supply constraints and geopolitical risks. - Companies must identify critical materials and develop long-term risk mitigation strategies. - Investment in upstream processing and recycling is crucial, though the benefits will be shared across multiple industries. ## Conclusion - The A&D sector must take proactive steps to secure access to critical raw materials, given the strategic and operational risks posed by supply chain vulnerabilities. - Government and industry partnerships, along with targeted investments, are essential for ensuring resilience and long-term capability delivery. ## Key Investments and Initiatives - **U.S. DoD and MP Materials**: A 10-year offtake agreement and USD 400 million equity investment plus USD 150 million loan. - **EU and Estonia**: EUR 15 million grant for the Narva rare earth magnet plant under the Just Transition Fund. - **Corporate Actions**: Airbus and Safran invest in titanium recycling; Rolls-Royce expands casting capacity; Apple invests USD 500 million in MP Materials for recycling and neodymium/praseodymium sourcing. ## Methodology - The report's projections are based on Roland Berger's proprietary aerospace & defense market models. - These models integrate OEM production forecasts, public company announcements, and insights from industry experts. ## Authors and Contributors - **Rachel Hugo**, Senior Partner - **Alexander Baumgartner**, Partner - **Adam Healy**, Partner - **Miguel Lopez**, Senior Project Manager - **Wolfgang Bernhart**, Senior Partner ## International Contacts - **France**: Antoine Kimmel - **United States**: Alexander Baumgartner