2011年-世界发展银行全球_The_Impacts_of_Economic_Crisis_in_Mongolia___Findings_from_Focus_Group_Discussions_23页_256kb

Summary of the Impacts of Economic Crisis in Mongolia: Findings from Focus Group Discussions

Core Content

This document presents the findings of a qualitative research study conducted in Mongolia from 2009 to 2011, focusing on the impacts of the global economic crisis. The study aimed to understand how the crisis affected different groups of the population, their coping mechanisms, and the effectiveness of government responses. The research was carried out by the World Bank Social Development Department in collaboration with the Global Reach Center in Ulaanbaatar and supported by the UK Department for International Development (DFID) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

Main Points

1. Economic Context and Crisis Impact

• Mongolia was severely affected by the global economic crisis, particularly due to the drop in commodity prices.
• GDP contracted by 1.6% in 2009 after a growth of 8.9% in 2008.
• The country is heavily reliant on the export of a few primary goods, with minerals accounting for 70% of total exports.
• Prices of key export goods such as copper, zinc, crude petroleum, combed goat-down, and cashmere dropped by 50% or more, while coal and gold prices remained stable.
• Construction activity declined sharply in 2009, and FDI inflows into mining and construction sectors were reduced.

2. Key Transmission Channels of the Crisis

• Labor Market Effects: Rising unemployment, reduced salaries, and intensified competition for jobs were major issues. Discrimination based on age, gender, and appearance was also reported.
• Price Shocks: The crisis led to a significant drop in prices for livestock products and a sharp increase in prices for imported food and consumer goods.
• Social Impacts: The crisis exacerbated social issues such as increased alcohol abuse and crime.

3. Coping Strategies

• Households adopted various coping mechanisms, including reduced consumption, increased reliance on credit, distress livestock sales, and diversification of income sources.
• Government assistance, although limited, played a crucial role in supporting poor households during the crisis.
• The winter dzud of 2010 further compounded the economic challenges.

4. Recovery and Improvements

• By the fourth round of research (November 2010 – January 2011), broad-based recovery was observed.
• Salaries for miners and civil servants increased by 30%, leading to improved household spending and market sales.
• However, recent migrants to Ulaanbaatar continued to face challenges such as poor enforcement of labor contracts, low pay, and poor working conditions.

Key Groups Affected

• Herders: Suffered from falling prices of cashmere and livestock products, increased transportation costs, and limited access to credit.
• Formal and Informal Miners: Experienced reduced global demand, leading to lower income and job insecurity.
• Non-tradable Sector Workers: Faced reduced employment and income due to the general economic slowdown.
• Recent Migrants to Ulaanbaatar: Worked in the informal sector and faced high levels of employment insecurity.
• Young People: Struggled with job finding and retention, often forced to accept jobs below their qualifications.
• Self-Employed in Rural Areas: Experienced reduced demand for their services and products, leading to income decline.

Policy Implications

• The study highlights the need for targeted support to vulnerable groups.
• Improved access to credit, reduced tax burdens, simplified licensing procedures, and skill-building programs were suggested as potential policy measures to help small businesses and herders.
• The government's response, though limited, was seen as important for the poorest households.
• The findings emphasize the importance of addressing labor market discrimination and ensuring fair wages and working conditions.

Additional Insights from Other Countries

• Vietnam: Export-oriented industries and communities around industrial parks were heavily affected. Reduced demand led to layoffs, wage cuts, and increased reliance on informal networks. Government assistance was limited, with the exception of student loan schemes.
• Thailand: The crisis had varying impacts on different sectors. Formal sector jobs recovered, but informal workers faced increasing debt and insecurity. Poorer groups had limited access to government support programs.
• Philippines: Export-oriented workers experienced significant wage reductions and layoffs. Rural households dependent on remittances were affected, while those with international migrants did not report major declines. Increased input costs and reduced product prices were common challenges.

Limitations of the Study

• The findings are not nationally representative and may overstate the crisis's impact.
• Some groups were not included in the study.
• The research focused on groups identified as particularly vulnerable, potentially missing the broader population's experiences.

Conclusion

The economic crisis had profound impacts on Mongolia's labor market, prices, and social conditions, especially for the poor and vulnerable groups. While some recovery was observed, many challenges remained, particularly for recent migrants and low-skilled workers. The study provides important insights into the crisis's effects and suggests potential policy interventions to support affected communities.