2012-08-13-奥纬咨询-Surrenders_in_the_Life_Insurance_Industry_and_their_Impact_on_Liquidity_60页_1mb

The report examines surrender behavior in the life insurance industry and its impact on liquidity, addressing whether a "run on life insurance companies" is likely and how insurers and regulators can manage such risks. Key points include:

• Consumer Behavior: Life insurance is a long-term product, and surrendering it is costly due to penalties, opportunity costs, and tax implications. Policyholders rarely view it as a quick cash source.
• Surrender Incentives: Surrender rates may increase during economic stress (e.g., interest rate changes or unemployment rises), but historical data shows rates have decreased since 2007. Mass surrenders are rare due to high disincentives.
• Industry Resilience: US data (2002-2010) demonstrates insurers can cover surrenders with operating cash flow even during crises. Liquidity stress tests show minimal asset sales needed under normal scenarios.
• Regulatory Role: Regulators should avoid reducing surrender penalties, as this can increase vulnerability. Temporary surrender suspensions (like in Japan and France) are economically justified in extreme cases, similar to circuit breakers in stock markets.
• Group Management: Intergroup asset transfers should be permitted without rigid ring-fencing to optimize liquidity, though cross-subsidization must be avoided.

Conclusion: Surrendering life policies is generally disadvantageous due to high penalties, and large-scale runs are unlikely. However, insurers' robust liquidity management and tailored product designs mitigate risks. Regulators should focus on preserving systemic stability rather than intervening lightly.