> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Akeso (9926 HK) Summary ## Core Content and Key Highlights Akeso, a biotechnology company listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, reported strong product sales of RMB3.0bn in FY25, marking a 52% year-over-year (YoY) increase, slightly below the previously estimated RMB3.1bn. This growth was driven by the inclusion of **cadonilimab** for 2L+ CC and **ivonescimab** for 2L+ EGFR-mutated NSCLC in the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) in January 2025. For FY26, the company is expected to see further acceleration in revenue growth, fueled by the inclusion of **cadonilimab** in 1L GC and 1L CC, and **ivonescimab** in 1L PD-L1+ NSCLC in January 2026. Despite a reported attributable net loss of RMB1.14bn in FY25 (compared to RMB501mn in FY24), Akeso maintains a robust balance sheet with RMB9.2bn in cash and equivalents as of the end of FY25, providing a solid financial foundation for its ongoing late-stage clinical programs. ## Key Financial Performance - **Revenue**: - FY24A: RMB2,124mn - FY25A: RMB3,056mn (+43.9% YoY) - FY26E: RMB5,010mn (+63.9% YoY) - FY27E: RMB8,679mn (+73.2% YoY) - FY28E: RMB11,455mn (+32.0% YoY) - **Net Profit**: - FY24A: RMB-501mn - FY25A: RMB-1,140.8mn - FY26E: RMB-734mn - FY27E: RMB725mn - FY28E: RMB1,625mn - **Gross Profit Margin**: - FY24: 86% - FY25: 79% - FY26E: 77.43% - FY27E: 81.10% - FY28E: 82.02% - **Operating Expenses**: - Selling expenses decreased from 49% to 47% of product sales in FY25. - R&D expenses decreased from 56% to 51% of product sales in FY25. ## Pivotal Clinical Readouts and Pipeline - **Ivonescimab**: - Demonstrated a compelling median PFS (mPFS) of 11.1 months vs. 6.9 months in the head-to-head China Phase 3 Harmoni-6 trial (vs. tislelizumab + chemotherapy in 1L sq-NSCLC). - Interim OS data readouts are expected this year. - Global Phase 3 Harmoni-3 trial (1L sq-NSCLC cohort) is anticipated to report interim mPFS data in 2Q26, with final PFS and interim OS readouts in 2H26. - NSq-NSCLC cohort enrollment is targeted for completion in 2H26, with a final PFS readout expected in 1H27. - The FDA has set a target action date of November 2026 for the EGFR-TKI resistant NSCLC indication, which could represent the potential first FDA approval for ivonescimab. - **Cadonilimab**: - Accelerating global expansion through two pivotal trials. - Initiated a global Phase 2 registrational trial for cadonilimab plus lenvatinib in IO-resistant 2L HCC. - Launching a head-to-head global Phase 3 MRCT of cadonilimab plus chemotherapy vs. chemotherapy + nivolumab in 1L GC, driven by compelling efficacy signals, especially in PD-L1 low-expressing populations. - **IO 2.0 + ADC Strategy**: - Akeso is advancing its proprietary HER3 ADC and TROP2/Nectin-4 ADC into Phase 2 trials. - The company plans to evaluate combinatorial regimens pairing these ADCs with cadonilimab and ivonescimab. ## Valuation and Investment Recommendation - **Target Price (TP)**: HK$185.80 (up from HK$182.12) - **Current Price**: HK$126.40 - **Upside Potential**: 47.0% - **DCF Valuation**: - Equity value: RMB150,608mn - DCF per share: HK$185.80 - **Terminal Growth Rate**: 4.5% - **Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)**: 8.37% ## Analyst Ratings and Disclaimers - **Rating**: BUY - **Rationale**: Strong product sales, pivotal data readouts expected, and a solid balance sheet support the BUY rating. - **Sensitivity Analysis**: The DCF valuation is sensitive to changes in terminal growth rate and WACC, with the target price of HK$185.80 corresponding to a WACC of 8.37% and a terminal growth rate of 4.5%. ## Shareholding and Market Performance - **Shareholding Structure**: - Green Court Capital: 4.7% - Sunny Beach Living: 4.6% - **Stock Data**: - Market Cap: HK$116,432.5mn - 12-month price performance: - Absolute: 18.2% - Relative: 26.2% ## Analyst Certification - The analyst certifies that the views expressed in the report accurately reflect personal views and that there are no conflicts of interest affecting the report's objectivity. ## Important Disclosures - The report is not tailored to individual investors and does not constitute investment advice. - Past performance does not guarantee future results. - CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the U.S. and may not be subject to U.S. regulations. - The report is intended for specific recipients in the UK, U.S., and Singapore, and may not be distributed to others without prior consent.