2011-11-28-奥纬咨询-Trucks_go_green_and_go_global_3页_209kb

TRUCKS GO GREEN AND GO GLOBAL: Summary

Core Content

This document outlines the evolving landscape of the commercial vehicle manufacturing industry, emphasizing the need for strategic adaptation to address challenges and seize opportunities in the coming years. It highlights key trends, market dynamics, and technological advancements that will shape the future of the industry.

Main Challenges and Opportunities

1. Economic Uncertainty and Profitability

• Shorter economic cycles are expected, requiring manufacturers to be more flexible in production capacity.
• Sustainable profitability is crucial, especially for companies that have expanded globally but failed to convert economies of scale into cash.
• Strategies include systematic cost reduction, increased manufacturing efficiency, and the development of high-impact global organizations.

2. Globalization and Market Expansion

• The commercial vehicle market is volatile, with established markets growing faster than BRIC countries.
• China is projected to dominate the market, with 1.5 million trucks sold in 2018.
• Emerging Markets 2.0 are gaining traction, including Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.
• Western OEMs must adapt by localizing sales and service networks and offering the right products to capture growth in these regions.

3. Environmental and Fuel Efficiency Trends

• "Green" trucks are becoming a necessity due to rising fuel prices, tougher emissions regulations, and zero-emission megacities.
• Fuel efficiency improvements are key, including aerodynamic enhancements and IT-based driver-vehicle interfaces.
• Alternative drive systems, particularly hybrid-electric technologies, are critical for future competitiveness.
• The global market for hybrid-electric drive systems is projected to exceed €7 billion by 2020.

4. Connectivity and Telematics

• Connected trucks are becoming a major growth driver.
• Telematics systems will see significant investment, with €3 billion projected in 2020, up from €1.1 billion in 2010.
• Remote diagnostics and new services will drive market penetration.
• OEMs must open up their systems for third-party applications and develop new business and pricing models.

Key Information

• Market Growth:

  • In 2011, around 2.6 million commercial vehicles were projected to be sold globally.
  • China is the largest market for trucks with GVW > 6t, with 1.2 million units sold in 2011.
  • By 2020, a mid-priced segment in China and Russia is expected to account for over 30% of the market.

• Strategic Priorities:

  • Platform strategy to drive profitability.
  • Localizing sales and service in emerging markets.
  • Strategic partnerships to support green and connected initiatives.
  • Customer-focused solutions such as rental concepts, uptime guarantees, and smart fleet management.

• Technological Trends:

  • Hybrid-electric drive systems are becoming a key differentiator.
  • Telematics and connectivity are transforming the industry, with a projected €3 billion market in 2020.

Conclusion

The commercial vehicle manufacturing industry is at a pivotal point, facing the need to balance sustainability, global expansion, and technological innovation. CEOs must adopt holistic strategies to navigate these changes, ensuring profitability, market relevance, and environmental responsibility in the years ahead. The connected truck and green technologies are not just trends but essential components of future competitiveness.