2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_2011_Triennial_Surveillance_Review_and_Review_of_the_2007_Decision_7页_305kb

报告摘要

Summary of the 2011 Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR) and Review of the 2007 Decision: Concept Note

I. Introduction

The 2011 Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR) aims to evaluate the Fund's surveillance framework and its effectiveness in promoting country-level and global stability. The review is informed by the 2008 TSR and subsequent assessments by the IMF and IEO, which identified gaps in risk assessment, financial sector integration, multilateral coordination, and exchange rate analysis. The 2011 TSR will examine the period from late 2008 onward, focusing on systemic and non-systemic members, and will consider the Fund's evolving relationship with external bodies such as the G-20 and FSB. It will also assess the legal framework for surveillance, with a particular emphasis on the 2007 Decision on Bilateral Surveillance.

II. Previous Surveillance Reviews: Findings and Recommendations

Key Findings from the 2008 TSR

Risk Assessment: The Fund failed to provide strong, focused warnings before the crisis. Warnings were scattered and lacked specificity.
Financial Sector Risks: The Fund underestimated the interconnectedness of financial risks and their spillover effects.
Systemic Risks: The crisis revealed that global risks are systemic in nature, requiring a more integrated approach.
Governance and Groupthink: The Fund's governance structure discouraged contrarian views, leading to a lack of urgency in addressing risks.

IEO Recommendations

Candor and Diversity of Views: Encourage open and honest dialogue, and foster an environment that supports diverse and dissenting opinions.
Integration of Financial Sector Issues: Better incorporate financial sector analysis into macroeconomic assessments.
Overcoming Silo Behavior: Promote cross-departmental and cross-level coordination.
Consistent Messaging: Ensure clear and consistent communication of global outlook and risks.

Ongoing Reforms

New Tools: Development of EWE, VEA, Fiscal Monitor, and Cross-Cutting Thematic Reports.
Multilateral Integration: Improved coordination between WEO, GFSR, and other surveillance products.
Enhanced Communication: Use of Regional Advisory Groups and innovative Article IV report formats.
Data Sharing: Increased efforts to share financial sector data and address data gaps.

III. 2011 TSR Approach

Key Themes

Risk Assessment: Evaluation of how risks are identified, communicated, and integrated into surveillance reports. Focus on systemic risks and transmission channels.
Financial Sector Risks and Propagation: Analysis of the Fund's capacity to assess financial risks and their impact on the real economy.
Integration of Multilateral and Bilateral Surveillance: Examination of how multilateral and bilateral analyses complement each other, including the role of the Fund in G-20 and FSB processes.
Exchange Rate Assessments: Review of the transparency, evenhandedness, and consistency of exchange rate evaluations.

Background Studies

Euro Area: Assess whether bilateral surveillance adequately addressed sovereign debt and financial sector risks.
Financial Sector Crisis Strategy: Evaluate the Fund's role in diagnosing and advising on financial sector responses.
Stimulus and Exit Policies: Analyze the effectiveness of policy advice in this area and its alignment with growth, employment, and sustainability.
Low-Income Countries (LICs): Examine the relevance and tailoring of policy advice to LICs.

Effectiveness Criteria

Candor: Consider perceptions of openness and the constraints on it, including confidentiality and political pressures.
Evenhandedness: Assess whether the Fund provides equally specific and balanced advice across countries and groups.
Diversity of Views: Encourage inclusion of external input and foster a culture of diverse opinions within the Fund.
Political and Social Context: Evaluate the extent to which staff considers unemployment, inequality, and poverty in surveillance.

IV. Framework for the 2011 Review

Methodology

Staff Reports Review: Analysis of Article IV reports from a representative sample of 50 countries, along with multilateral and regional products.
Surveys: Gather opinions from country authorities, Executive Board members, staff, financial market participants, media/think tanks, and civil society organizations.
Background Studies: Conducted by cross-departmental teams, these studies will analyze the Fund's performance on key issues and draw on interviews and external analyses.
Advisory Group: An independent group of 10–12 experts will provide additional insights and recommendations, which will be shared with the Board and published.

V. Issues for Discussion

Whether the overall objective and proposed themes form a useful basis for the TSR.
Whether the methodology employed is appropriate and effective for the review.

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