2019-07-11_DTZ戴德梁行_Office_Q3_2018_Orange_County_4页_659kb

报告摘要

Orange County Office Market Summary Q3 2018

Core Content

Orange County's office market in Q3 2018 showed mixed performance, with some submarkets experiencing growth while others faced challenges. The overall market demonstrated resilience despite certain declines, driven by strong economic fundamentals and new developments.

Economic Indicators

Orange County Employment: Increased slightly from 1.62M in Q3 17 to 1.63M in Q3 18.
Unemployment Rate: Rose from 3.4% to 2.9% in Q3 18, still one of the lowest in the nation.
U.S. Unemployment Rate: Declined from 4.4% to 3.9% in Q3 18.
Job Growth: Professional and business services added 5,300 jobs, while manufacturing saw a loss of 4,300 jobs over the past year.

Market Overview

Vacancy Rate: Increased by 50 bps to 11.8% for the overall market, with direct vacancy rising by 40 bps to 11.1%.
Net Absorption: Year-to-date (YTD) net absorption was positive at 210,434 sf, but Q3 18 net absorption was negative at -133,847 sf.
Leasing Activity: Total leasing activity was 1.1 msf in Q3 18, a 24.6% decline from the previous quarter.
Rental Rates: Overall asking rents increased to $2.96 psf/mo, up 0.10 psf/mo quarter-over-quarter and 0.43 psf/mo year-over-year.

Key Submarket Performance

Submarket	Inventory (SF)	Direct Vacancy (SF)	Overall Vacancy Rate	YTD Direct Net Absorption (SF)	YTD Overall Net Absorption (SF)	YTD Leasing Activity (SF)	Under Construction (SF)	Overall Asking Rent ($psf/mo)	Direct Asking Rent ($psf/mo)
Irvine Spectrum	10,044,357	1,207,673	13.0%	767,219	848,455	443,592	348,783	$3.71	$3.86
Greater Airport Area/CBD	38,689,907	5,101,176	14.1%	-639,129	-618,484	2,328,225	0	$3.25	$3.43
South Santa Ana	1,936,514	403,643	24.0%	-46,980	-60,217	232,779	0	$2.43	$2.80
Costa Mesa	5,280,016	763,405	17.1%	-107,173	-98,665	389,990	0	$3.33	$3.55
Irvine	23,453,071	3,288,673	14.4%	-447,984	-451,151	1,358,840	0	$3.28	$3.44
Lake Forest/R.S. Margarita	2,634,428	133,700	6.2%	-389	22,129	90,628	0	$2.33	$2.50
Laguna Hills/Aliso Viejo	4,296,977	396,560	9.5%	-69,129	-60,006	162,496	0	$2.93	$3.29
Santa Ana	3,411,691	438,094	12.8%	242,711	242,711	173,327	0	$2.25	N/A
Brea/La Habra	3,920,786	146,826	5.3%	34,641	36,191	132,734	0	$2.25	$2.64
Fullerton	1,283,776	13,732	1.1%	-1,648	-1,648	5,530	0	$1.85	N/A

Key Lease Transactions

OptumRX Inc.: Renewal of 133,745 sf at 2300 Main St in Irvine.
US Bank: Renewal of 104,546 sf at 3121 Michelson Dr in Irvine.
Carrington Mortgage: Renewal/Expansion of 90,877 sf at 25 Enterprise in Aliso Viejo.
WeWork: New Lease of 63,816 sf at 18565-18575 Jamboree in Irvine.
Advantage Sales & Marketing: New Lease of 62,876 sf at 1610 E Saint Andrew in Santa Ana.
LPA Design Studios: New Lease of 55,450 sf at 5301 California in Irvine.
Kareo Inc.: Renewal of 51,882 sf at 3353 Michelson in Irvine.
Synchrony Financial: New Lease of 51,055 sf at 555 Anton Blvd in Costa Mesa.

Key Sales Transactions

Blackstone Portfolio - GAA: Sold by Blackstone to Lincoln Property Company for $161,000,000, or $302 psf.
100 Bayview Cir: Sold by AEW Capital Management to Granite Properties Inc. for $125,650,000, or $362 psf.
19100-19200 Von Karman Ave: Sold by Mass. Mutual Life Insurance Co. to Keleman Company for $106,800,416, or $365 psf.
1 Glenn Bell Way: Sold by TransPacific to LBA Realty for $104,000,300, or $383 psf.
2020 E First St: Sold by Colton Company to Harbor Associates for $13,756,918, or $116 psf.
19762 MacArthur Blvd: Sold by Keleman Caamano to Circle Vision for $33,000,210, or $311 psf.

Outlook

Rental Rates: Expected to continue rising due to new Class A development in the next year.
Vacancy: Likely to increase as more completions enter the market, especially with slowing leasing activity.
Economic Growth: Orange County's economy is expected to continue growing, supporting market fundamentals.
Irvine Spectrum: Will see continued absorption and rent growth as new developments like The Quad and Spectrum Terrace are completed.

Market Beat Summary

Positive Net Absorption: YTD net absorption was positive at 210,434 sf, with the largest move-in being Behr Paint in Santa Ana (225,279 sf).
Leasing Activity: Moderately declined in Q3 18 to 1.1 msf, with renewals playing a significant role.
Cushman & Wakefield: Represented five of the top eight lease transactions in Q3 18, highlighting their market influence.

Conclusion

Despite a decline in Q3 18 net absorption and a moderate drop in leasing activity, Orange County's office market remains robust, supported by strong economic performance and ongoing development. The Irvine Spectrum submarket is particularly promising, with continued growth in rents and absorption expected as new developments come online. The market is anticipated to thrive in 2019, with a focus on Class A properties and rising rental rates.

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