2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_El_Salvador_Staff_Report_for_the_2014_Article_IV_Consultation_64页_2mb

EL SALVADOR 2014 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION SUMMARY

Core Content

The 2014 Article IV consultation with El Salvador focused on addressing macroeconomic vulnerabilities and improving the medium-term economic outlook. The main themes included fiscal consolidation, social protection, competitiveness, and financial sector strengthening.

Main Policy Issues

• Fiscal Adjustment: A reduction in the fiscal deficit of 3.5% of GDP over the next three years is necessary to place public debt on a sustainable path. The current deficit stands at 4% of GDP, with annual gross financing needs around 8-9% of GDP.
• Social Spending: The fiscal adjustment should be accompanied by targeted social spending to protect the most vulnerable and reduce inequality.
• Pension System Reform: A broad strategy is required to reduce pension system imbalances and restore sustainability. This includes raising the retirement age and introducing progressive taxation of benefits.
• Public Financial Management: Steps are needed to strengthen transparency and control in public financial management to mitigate fiscal risks.
• Growth and Competitiveness: Supply-side reforms are essential to increase productivity and competitiveness. These include reducing red-tape, increasing access to credit, upgrading infrastructure, and lowering energy costs.
• Financial Sector: While banking indicators are sound, there is a need to strengthen the institutional framework for financial stability, including better bank resolution laws and a liquidity safety net.

Key Economic Indicators

• Growth: El Salvador's growth has lagged the region for over a decade. In 2014, it reached 2.0% and is expected to rise to 2.5% by 2016-18.
• Inflation: Inflation has remained low and stable, averaging around 1% in recent years, with a peak of 2% in August 2014 due to food price increases.
• Public Debt: Public debt is projected to rise to over 70% of GDP by 2019. A sustainable level is estimated between 40-50% of GDP.
• Current Account Deficit: The deficit was 6.5% of GDP in 2013, expected to fall to 5.5% in 2014 and 4.1% by 2019, reflecting the impact of lower oil prices.
• Unemployment: The unemployment rate is low at 5.9% (2013), but underemployment is high at 28% of urban employees.
• Informal Economy: About 60% of the labor force is in the informal sector.

Risks and Outlook

• Outlook: Under current policies, growth is expected to be 2-2.25% in 2014-15 and 2.5% in 2016-18. The fiscal deficit is expected to remain around 5.5% of GDP by 2019.
• Global Risks: Global interest rate normalization and a deterioration in advanced and emerging markets could increase borrowing costs and worsen public debt dynamics.
• Domestic Risks: Domestic policy uncertainty, especially in the run-up to the March 2015 elections, could worsen fiscal and external balances. Poor security, political fragmentation, and natural disaster risks also pose challenges.

Authorities' Views

• The authorities believe the IMF's baseline is overly pessimistic and argue that growth will be stronger due to U.S. recovery spillovers, higher investment, and better investment multipliers.
• They do not consider higher global interest rates a significant risk for 2015 and are confident in their ability to access international capital markets.
• The recent Eurobond issuance and lower oil prices are seen as positive developments that can help improve fiscal accounts.

Fiscal Adjustment Measures

• Revenue Measures: A 2 percentage point increase in VAT to 15%, removal of tax exemptions, and targeting subsidies.
• Expenditure Measures: Hiring freeze, limits on wage increases, rationalization of poorly targeted subsidies, and phasing in a property tax.
• Potential Impact: The adjustment is expected to have a short-term negative growth effect of 1.5%, but could lead to a 3% growth rate by 2018-19 with structural reforms and reduced fiscal vulnerabilities.

Institutional Context

• The consultation took place in San Salvador from October 14-28, 2014, with the participation of IMF staff and El Salvador's senior officials.
• The government has submitted a draft fiscal responsibility law (FRL) aiming for a 1.5% GDP adjustment in 2015, but this is considered insufficient for long-term debt sustainability.

Conclusion

The consultation highlights the need for a more ambitious fiscal adjustment, targeted social spending, and structural reforms to improve competitiveness and growth. While some progress has been made, El Salvador faces significant challenges in maintaining macroeconomic stability and reducing inequality. The IMF recommends a phased approach to fiscal consolidation, with a focus on both revenue enhancement and expenditure control, to ensure sustainable debt levels and support long-term growth.