2025-06-04-Bernstein-GLP1追踪_Zepbound持续飙升_部分销量仍有待IQVIA验证（截至5月23日当周）_16页_394kb

US GLP-1 Biopharma Tracker: June 4, 2025

Key Market Dynamics

• Zepbound (Lilly): Market-leading GLP-1 drug continues growth despite data validation issues from IQVIA, with 4-week YoY growth at 300%. Volume spikes attributed to supplier corrections and higher prescription numbers (~40k prescriptions).
• Total Scripts Increase: GLP-1 prescriptions rose +4.3% week-over-week (YoW) to 1.96M (up +81k). 4-week seq growth is 3.7%, while YoY growth dropped slightly to 50.6% (vs prior 4-week 54.5%).
• Market Share: Eli Lilly dominates with 54.1% market share (includes semaglutide + tirzepatide), up from 53.2% last week. NOVO growth stagnant at +1.6% YoY.

Lilly Performance Breakdown

• Tirzepatide (Mounjaro/Zepbound): LLY's share of tirzepatide is 22.2%, up from 20.9% last week. YoY growth 118.9%, exceeding Novo's guided supply expansion.
• Semaglutide: Total sema share 32.0% (+0.3pp). Zepbound drives most of the growth (22.2% of tirzepatide).

Novo Nordisk Analysis

• Ozempic + Wegovy: Growth softened (Ozempic YoY down from 16.5% to 6.1% YoY); Wegovy YoY steady at 29.1% YoY vs 99.5% prior year.
• Market Share Decline: NOVO loses share due to unverified data underreporting and delayed supply expansion in US.

Other Trends

• Trulicity (Lilly): Declines by -5.1% YoY (active ingredient: exenatide).
• Zepbound Price Impact: New lower initial dose ($199/month until June 30).
• Regulatory Impact: CVS Caremark preferred positioning for Wegovy, compounded with loss of compounding legality (May 22, 2025).

Analyst Recommendation

• Eli Lilly: Rated Outperform with $1,100 price target.
• Investment Focus: Weighted DCF analysis with emphasis on GLP-1 franchise growth.

Data Validation Notes

• Zepbound Volumes: Higher than prior weeks reported by a retail supplier; IQVIA validating data. Week ending May 23 saw prescription jumps partly due to supplier reporting discrepancies.