20170508-穆迪服务-Credit_Outlook_35页_1021kb

报告摘要

Credit Outlook Summary

Core Content

The document provides a detailed analysis of credit implications related to various corporate, infrastructure, bank, exchange, and sovereign entities as of May 2017. It highlights both credit positive and negative events that affect the financial health and ratings of the mentioned entities.

Main Points

Corporates

Restaurant Brands International (RBI): RBI plans to redeem preferred stock, which will increase leverage. However, the company expects to reduce leverage over the next 12-18 months due to debt reduction and improved earnings. The acquisition of Popeyes is expected to provide long-term benefits through scale and revenue diversification.
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company: The sale of international businesses to Exponent Private Equity for $250 million is credit positive. The proceeds will be reinvested in hydroponics, which has higher margins and growth potential. The sale is part of a broader strategic review to focus on high-growth areas.
Heineken N.V.: The acquisition of the remaining 50% stake in Lagunitas is credit negative. It will increase financial leverage and reduce the company's ability to absorb potential operating performance deterioration. The acquisition is expected to add almost €3.0 billion in debt, but the company remains committed to maintaining a net debt/EBITDA ratio below 2.5x.
IOI Corporation Berhad: A stronger commitment to sustainable palm oil production is credit positive. The company has added new commitments to its sustainable palm oil policy, including third-party verification and improved peatland management. This will help re-establish relationships with customers and improve downstream sales.
China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC): The VAT cut on natural gas imports is credit positive. The lower tax rate will stimulate consumption and increase revenues for both companies. It also reduces fuel costs for CNOOC's power generation business and reinforces their strategic importance in China's energy policy.

Infrastructure

Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA): The approval of the fiscal plan and extension of the restructuring pact are credit positive. These developments indicate progress toward a consensual restructuring and reduce the risk of a municipal-style bankruptcy. The restructuring includes a surcharge on ratepayers to fund debt service and a focus on improving the power grid through public-private partnerships.

Banks

Peru's Banks: The reduction in reserve requirements is credit positive. It allows banks to increase lending, particularly in local currency, and supports their net interest margins. Despite slowing loan growth, the move is expected to stimulate credit demand following reconstruction efforts post-El Niño floods.
Sparebanken Vest: Reduced credit loss expectations are credit positive. The bank expects lower loan impairments due to improved economic conditions and a strong lending portfolio. This should support profitability and potentially lead to upward rating pressure.
RGS Bank: Integration into the Bank Otkritie Group is credit positive. The acquisition is expected to provide RGS Bank with access to greater resources and stability, enhancing its credit profile.
Georgian Banks: Increased tourism is expected to benefit Georgian banks, as it will likely drive higher demand for financial services.

Exchanges

LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group): Faces risks from the European Commission's options for clearing Euro-denominated derivatives. This could impact the company's credit profile depending on the regulatory outcomes.

Insurers

US Health Insurers: The American Health Care Act is expected to be credit positive, as it may reduce regulatory burdens and improve profitability.
Puerto Rico's Debt Restructuring: The filing is credit positive for financial guarantors, as it suggests a structured approach to debt resolution.
US P&C Insurers: Record first-quarter catastrophe losses are a negative credit factor, indicating potential strain on financial performance.
Intact Financial Corporation: The acquisition of OneBeacon is credit negative, as it may increase leverage and reduce profitability.

Key Information

Restaurant Brands International (RBI): Leverage will increase due to preferred stock redemption, but is expected to decrease over the next 12-18 months. The company is expected to maintain its current ratings.
Scotts Miracle-Gro: Sale of international businesses is part of a strategic shift towards hydroponics, which is expected to improve EBIT margins significantly.
Heineken N.V.: Acquisition of Lagunitas is expected to increase leverage, but the company's commitment to maintaining a net debt/EBITDA ratio below 2.5x provides some comfort.
IOI Corporation Berhad: Improved sustainability practices are expected to enhance its credit profile and downstream sales.
CNPC and CNOOC: Lower VAT on natural gas imports is expected to stimulate consumption and increase revenues, supporting their strategic importance in China's energy sector.
PREPA: Approval of the fiscal plan and extension of the restructuring pact are credit positive, moving towards a structured resolution of its debt issues.
Peru's Banks: Lower reserve requirements support lending growth and net interest margins, especially in local currency.
Sparebanken Vest: Reduced credit loss expectations and improved profitability metrics are credit positive, with potential for upward rating pressure.
RGS Bank: Integration into Bank Otkritie Group is expected to provide stability and credit support.
LSEG: Faces potential regulatory risks related to Euro-denominated derivatives clearing.
US Health Insurers: The American Health Care Act could improve credit profiles by reducing regulatory costs.
Puerto Rico's Debt Restructuring: Positive for financial guarantors, indicating a structured approach to debt resolution.
US P&C Insurers: Catastrophe losses are a negative factor, impacting financial performance.
Intact Financial Corporation: Acquisition of OneBeacon is credit negative due to increased leverage.