2025-06-05-Bernstein-印度电力_电价——峰值已过_短期形势严峻_但我们对中期看法不同..._15页_1mb

India Power Sector Analysis: Spot Prices and Outlook

• Spot Prices: Reached an all-time low in May (e.g., Rs 1.9/kWh), driven by oversupply, high wind generation, and low demand, leading to zero pricing on some days due to technical limits of thermal plants.

• Key Impacts: Renewable developers face curtailment with no compensation for grid-stability reasons. Adani Green emerged as a top seller on the merchant market, exacerbating revenue challenges.

• Near-Term Outlook: Spot prices expected to remain soft over the next 12 months due to 12 GW thermal and ~30 GW renewable capacity additions in FY26, along with rooftop solar push. Risk of negative prices persists without contracts for difference.

• Medium-Term Outlook: Prices may rise, particularly in evening hours, as thermal capacity additions normalize to around 10 GW annually. Marginal pricing will likely align with renewable levelized costs (e.g., solar and battery costs).

• Investment Implications: Adversely affected for renewable players, with potential delays in PPA signings and DISCOM resistance to rooftop solar. NTPC and regulated utilities see limited impact; batteries could benefit from low prices. Overall, caution advised for equity exposure in vulnerable sectors.

Medium-Term Risks: Renewable curtailment, grid constraints, and delayed investments could affect sector growth.