2025-06-11-Jefferies-日本制铁控股公司（5411）_川崎的京滨地区_土地开发考察与长期价值创造_7页_128kb

Equity Research Summary: JFE Holdings

Land Development and Strategic Initiatives

• Keihin Area: JFE targets land use conversion in the Kawasaki City-Yokohama City area (406 hectares), with a focus on the 222-hectare Ohgishima area under the OHGISHIMA 2050 vision for a carbon-neutral supply hub.
• Profit Targets: Aims for ¥85B cumulative land business earnings by FY2027 and >¥100B by FY2035.
• Key Projects: Development includes a hydrogen supply chain collaboration, data center establishment with Mitsubishi Corp. by FY2030, and commercial facilities.
• Hydrogen Initiative: Joint project with ENEOS to launch liquid hydrogen by FY2030, powered by a base in Ohgishima (21.5 hectares).
• Commercial Use: Sale of land for logistics and other purposes, e.g., Nitori's purchase of 21 hectares.

Financial Targets and Valuation

• Rating and Price: JFE Holdings rated HOLD with a price target of ¥2,000 (19% upside from current ¥1,687).
• Valuation: Uses EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.0x. Profit projections show significant long-term spending.
• Financial Projections: Medium-term plans include leasing GI projects, selling logistics zones, and targeting operating profit.

Risks and Challenges

• Regulatory Issues: Land use restricted to industrial purposes; deregulation needed for commercial projects.
• Access and Infrastructure: No public roads on Ohgishima Island, limiting access; port and transportation upgrades essential.
• Development Costs: High expenses for demolition, soil remediation, and infrastructure, potentially exceeding ¥200B.