2025-06-12-花旗集团-暹罗水泥（SCC）_暹罗水泥（SCC.BK）_评级上调至中性_资产货币化即将取得成果_13页_574kb

Summary of Citi Research Report: Siam Cement (SCC.BK)

Key Update

• Citi upgraded Siam Cement (SCC.BK) from Sell to Neutral, reflecting improved outlook from asset monetization and capital allocation.

Analyst Recommendation and Target Price

• New recommendation: Neutral
• Target price revised upward to Bt180, up from Bt145
• Rationale includes potential stake sale in Chandra Asri and positive capital reallocation effects.

Key Actions and Rationale

• SCC announced plans to reduce its 10.57% stake in Chandra Asri (CAP), potentially generating a disposal gain.
• This divestment is expected to reduce debt burden and may unlock value at a valuation supportive of the target price.
• Current stock price offers a ~20x P/BV multiple, but the transaction may provide a reasonable return relative to previous levels.

Company Context

• Siam Cement is Thailand's largest industrial conglomerate, with diverse business units including petrochemicals, cement, and distribution.
• Operations focus on Thailand with exports; largest shareholder is the Thai Monarchy.

Neutral Recommendation Basis

• Despite upside from asset sales, the extended chemical downturn poses risks to chemical business profits.
• Prolonged PRC capacity additions and weak PE/PP spreads may persist, potentially affecting returns on new projects like LSP's ethane infrastructure.
• LSP project risks include cost savings limitations and potential delays.

Catalysts and Risks

Positive Catalysts

• Higher-than-expected chemical spreads
• Delays in PRC olefins capacity startup
• Stronger cement demand from government spending

Negative Catalysts

• Weaker chemical demand and spreads, especially PE/PP
• Slower domestic cement consumption
• Rising energy costs (e.g., crude oil, coal)

Valuation

• Sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation set at Bt180 per share, down from previous levels due to chemical downturn uncertainty.
• Discounted cash flow and comparable company analysis factor in net debt reduction and asset sales.
• Equity yield plays a role in the downgrading from previous multiples.