IMF国际货币组织全球-Botswana_Technical-Assistance-Report_18页_637kb

Summary of the Technical Assistance Report on Botswana's Price Statistics Mission (February 4–15, 2019)

Core Content of the Report

This report outlines the findings and recommendations of a technical assistance mission conducted by the AFRITAC South (AFS) in February 2019 to support Statistics Botswana (SB) in updating the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and reviewing progress on the Producer Price Index (PPI). The mission was part of the IMF's effort to improve price statistics for better economic policy-making and inflation monitoring.

Main Points and Recommendations

1. Consumer Price Index (CPI)

• Current Status: The CPI weights are based on outdated 2009/2010 data and need updating to reflect current consumption patterns.
• Rebasing Process:
  • SB is finalizing new CPI weights using data from the 2015/2016 Multi-Topic Household Survey (MTHS).
  • The mission recommended reviewing adjustments made to MTHS data and recalculating weights.
  • The new weights were validated with the CPI Rebasing Technical Working Group (RTWG) and will be used in the January 2019 CPI and disseminated by end February 2019.
• Dissemination:
  • SB currently disseminates the CPI monthly through their website.
  • A technical summary of the CPI compilation process should be updated and disseminated to improve transparency.
• Owner Occupied Housing (OOH):
  • OOH costs are currently excluded from the CPI.
  • SB is considering the rental equivalence approach to include OOH, which requires representative rental data and appropriate weighting.
  • A suitable source of housing stock data is needed to improve the accuracy of OOH measures.
  • SB should plan to include data on owner-occupied and privately rented properties in the next population and housing census (2021).
  • Improvements in rent data collection are essential to ensure a reliable and representative measure of OOH costs.

2. Producer Price Index (PPI)

• Current Status: SB does not currently disseminate a PPI.
• Development Progress:
  • A detailed workplan was agreed upon with the authorities in 2018.
  • The mining and quarrying PPI is nearly ready for dissemination, with the basket and weights finalized based on the 2017 census data.
  • The PPI for mining and quarrying will be released by end September 2019.
• Methodology:
  • Unit value pricing is recommended for the mining PPI due to the lack of alternative price measures.
  • The unit value method requires homogeneity in products; the mission identified some products in the mining basket with insufficient homogeneity.
  • SB should consider grouping products into more homogeneous categories or using alternative price measures if necessary.
• Future Expansion:
  • SB should expand PPI coverage to include agriculture, utilities, and manufacturing in the medium-term.
  • These sectors contribute approximately 30% of total GDP, based on 2016 national accounts data.
  • SB should work with data suppliers to collect revenue and quantity data for export and domestic markets to develop more accurate PPI weights.

Key Recommendations

Target Date	Priority Recommendation	Responsible Institution
End February 2019	Review adjustments applied to MTHS expenditure data and recalculate weights as needed	SB
End February 2019	Finalize CPI weights and publish the updated CPI	SB
March 2019	Disseminate a technical summary of the CPI updating process	SB
September 2019	Improve the use of unit value calculation in the mining PPI draft	SB

Staff and Resources

• The price statistics unit in SB consists of three full-time staff.
• The unit has the capability to develop price indexes but is constrained by limited resources.
• SB management should review the staff and budgetary requirements for continued CPI and PPI development.

Conclusion

The report highlights the importance of updating and improving price statistics to better reflect economic conditions and support informed policy decisions. It emphasizes the need for enhanced data collection, transparency in methodology, and collaboration between SB, national accounts, and the Census office to ensure the reliability and relevance of CPI and PPI data.