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Summary of "Cost-Competitive Renewable Power Generation: Potential across South East Europe"

Core Content

This report, produced by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in collaboration with regional experts, assesses the cost-competitiveness of renewable energy technologies in South East Europe (SEE). It aims to support policy makers in designing effective long-term energy strategies and updating National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs) to align with the region’s renewable energy targets and the EU's commitment to achieving at least 27% renewable share in energy consumption by 2030.

Main Points

1. Renewable Energy Potential in SEE

• The region has vast technical renewable energy potential, estimated at 740 GW, with:
  • Wind energy: 532 GW
  • Solar PV: 120 GW
  • Hydropower: 61 GW (most developed)
  • Biomass: 4.7 GW (medium cost of capital)
  • Geothermal: 690 MW (medium cost of capital)

2. Cost-Competitiveness of Renewables

• Renewable energy is already cost-competitive in many parts of the region.
• In 2016, 126.9 GW of renewable energy could be deployed cost-effectively, which is 17% of the total technical potential.
• Solar PV and wind energy are particularly promising, with:
  • Solar PV: 5.2 GW in 2016, with potential to grow to 320 GW by 2030.
  • Wind energy: 98 GW in 2016, with potential to expand to 320 GW by 2030.
• Hydropower remains the most economically viable option, with 18 GW of additional capacity deployable at an average LCOE of EUR 56/MWh.

3. Cost-Competitiveness by Technology

• Solar PV: Average LCOE of EUR 88/MWh in 2016 (medium cost of capital), but can be as low as EUR 70/MWh in optimal locations.
• Wind energy: Average LCOE of EUR 82/MWh in 2016, with potential to reach EUR 50/MWh in the most suitable areas.
• Biomass: Additional potential of 4.7 GW at an average LCOE slightly below EUR 72/MWh, with higher potential in non-EU countries under low cost of capital.
• Geothermal: Limited potential for electricity generation, mainly in Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, and Slovenia, with a maximum of 690 MW at EUR 86/MWh.

4. Regional Overview

• The region includes 12 countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo*, Montenegro, Republic of Moldova, Serbia, Slovenia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, and Ukraine (as part of the Energy Community).
• EU members: Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, Slovenia.
• Population and GDP: The region has a population of over 50 million and a GDP of ~$120 billion in 2015.

5. Challenges and Barriers

• Policy and regulatory: Weak or inconsistent renewable energy frameworks hinder investment.
• Market access: Limited competition in energy markets and inadequate Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) reduce investor confidence.
• Administrative: High transaction costs due to complex bureaucracy.
• Grid integration: Inadequate infrastructure and lack of experience with variable renewables (solar and wind) limit expansion.
• Financing: Need for improved access to finance, including crowdfunding and energy cooperatives.

6. Future Projections

• By 2030, the cost-competitive potential of wind and solar PV is expected to exceed 650 GW, making nearly all of their technical potential exploitable.
• Ukraine is projected to develop the largest share of this capacity, with 70 GW of solar PV and 320 GW of wind.
• 2050 projections suggest even greater potential as technology costs continue to decline and capital becomes more affordable.

Key Information

• IRENA and GIZ conducted this study as part of the International Climate Initiative (IKI).
• LCOE (Levelised Cost of Electricity) is a central metric used to assess cost-competitiveness.
• The study combines resource mapping from the Global Atlas for Renewable Energy with real project cost data from the IRENA Renewable Costing Alliance.
• The medium cost of capital scenario is used as a reference, but low cost scenarios reveal even higher potential for renewable deployment.
• Support schemes such as feed-in-premium (FIP) are being introduced, replacing traditional feed-in-tariffs (FITs), to improve investment attractiveness.
• The report highlights the importance of enabling policies, regulatory frameworks, and institutional conditions for a successful energy transition.

Conclusion

South East Europe is well-positioned to significantly increase its renewable energy share, particularly in solar PV and wind, due to abundant resources, falling technology costs, and improving economic viability. However, to achieve this potential, the region must address policy, regulatory, administrative, and technical barriers. IRENA encourages the development of market-based support mechanisms, grid infrastructure improvements, and strong investment frameworks to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon energy system.