英文_高盛_日本每周启动随着外国资金连续四周净流入_上调东证指数每股收益预测和目标_24页_906kb

Japan Weekly Kickstart Analysis Summary

Market Overview and TOPIX Update

• TOPIX closed at 2,740.45 (+0.3% weekly), while the Nikkei 225 rose 0.7% amid improved global macro outlook from easing US-China trade tensions.
• Goldman Sachs revised its fiscal year 2025 TOPIX earnings per share (EPS) growth to +2% (previously -1%) and raised the 12-month price target to 2,900, implying a 6% upside, based on a forward price-earnings (PE) multiple of 14x.

Sector Performance and Recommendations

• Top sectors include Marine Transport and Warehousing, which outperformed due to global trade improvements; bottom sectors are Pharmaceuticals and Fisheries, facing challenges.
• Earnings season showed mixed results, with 46% of companies exceeding consensus; foreign investors have net bought Japanese equities for 4 consecutive weeks, supporting market inflows.
• Sectors like Shippers, Factory Automation, and Specialty Products (+10%, +6%, +5% weekly) led gains driven by reduced US-China trade tensions.

Key Economic Data

• Japan's full-year FY2025 earnings guidance averages -12% vs. consensus, slightly below historical norms, reflecting post-pandemic uncertainty but not excessive conservatism.
• Buyback programs remain robust, contributing to price appreciation, with no significant negative surprises in top-down earnings forecasts compared to consensus.
• Valuations: TOPIX forward PE at 14x, P/B ratio below 1.0x, with strong performance in defensive sectors.

Investment Flows and Catalysts

• Weekly equity flows show foreign net inflows of ¥364 billion, while domestic Individual and Institutional investors net sold ¥371 billion and ¥200 billion, respectively.
• AGM season is a key catalyst for Japanese equities, and earnings momentum is tracking ahead for FY2025, with guidance updates adjusting NP forecasts.

Global Context and Strategy Focus

• Japan's market performance is globalized, with TOPIX returning +6% in the past 12 months, outpacing peers like the S&P 500 (+10%).
• Recommended sectors include Electrical Appliances and Precision, raised to Overweight, while underweight remains Neutral. Style-wise, value and domestic-demand sectors show relative strength.