20120213-奥纬咨询-Long-term_Gas_Contracts_Preparing_for_a_New_Paradigm_10页_604kb

Long-Term Gas Contracts Transformation

Key Changes

• Decoupling of Oil-Gas Link: European market liberalization and oversupply have weakened the oil-price linkage in gas contracts.
• Risk Redistribution: Midstreamers face increased risk capital requirements due to mismatches between procurement and sales pricing.

Market Evolution

• Commodity Basket Indexes: Growing importance; contracts based on gas wholesale prices or basket indexes (coal, oil, power) can reduce volatility.
• Customer Demand: Industrial consumers (35%) and power producers (28%) show interest in diversified pricing mechanisms.

Strategic Recommendations

1. Midstreamers:
   • Adapt to flexible contracts, optimize infrastructure, diversify risk-sharing models, and reduce reliance on spreads.
   • Focus on value-creation areas: market access, contract structuring, and asset portfolio optimization.
2. Gas Producers:
   • Reposition to share risks with midstreamers and explore diversification (power, coal) to stabilize returns.
3. Financial Players:
   • Enter strategic partnerships to manage risks, though explicit positions come with costs.

Outcomes

• Balanced Contracts: Reaching consensus on pricing mechanisms (e.g., reducing oil-index reliance) is vital for sustainability.
• Risk Capital: Alternative indexes could lower midstreamers' capital requirements by 44%.

Future Outlook

• Preparing for a gas market where liquidity and flexibility dominate, requiring collaborative roles to sustain risk-return profiles.