2016年-世界发展银行全球_Getting_Back_on_Track___Reviving_Growth_and_Securing_Prosperity_for_All_159页_5mb

Summary of Thailand Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD)

Core Content

The Thailand Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) outlines a strategic roadmap for reviving growth and ensuring inclusive and sustainable prosperity. It identifies key challenges in economic performance, social inclusion, and environmental sustainability, while proposing actionable pathways and cross-cutting priorities to address these issues.

Main Viewpoints

• Economic Growth: Thailand has historically achieved strong growth, averaging 7.5% annually before the 1997 Asian financial crisis. However, recent growth has slowed significantly, with projections for 2016-2018 at 3.2% and expected to drop to 3.0% by 2021, which is below the growth rates of other ASEAN and East Asian countries.
• Poverty and Inequality: While extreme poverty has been largely eliminated, 7.1 million people were still below the national poverty line in 2014, and 6.7 million were vulnerable to falling back into poverty. Poverty is still concentrated in certain regions, especially the Northeast, North, and Deep South.
• Institutional Weaknesses: Political instability and a weakening bureaucracy have affected governance and economic performance. Thailand's institutional capability to implement reforms is a critical factor in addressing these challenges.
• Sustainability Concerns: The economic model has become less sustainable due to declining investment, especially in manufacturing and infrastructure, and increasing vulnerability to environmental and climate risks.

Key Information

Growth Trends

• Thailand's growth rate dropped from over 9% in the 1986-96 period to less than 3% in recent years.
• The slowdown in growth is attributed to a decline in investment, particularly in the industry and service sectors.
• The movement of workers from agriculture to manufacturing, which was a key driver of past productivity gains, has slowed in recent years.

Poverty and Inclusiveness

• Poverty reduction has been driven by economic growth and redistribution, but progress has been uneven.
• The bottom 40% of the population have benefited from growth, but challenges remain in ensuring equitable access.
• Non-income dimensions of poverty, such as access to education, health, and social security, are still significant issues.
• The role of private transfers in poverty reduction has increased, but government programs still leave many vulnerable.

Structural and Competitive Challenges

• Thailand has lost its competitive edge compared to its regional peers, particularly in terms of labor productivity and global competitiveness.
• The country's Global Competitiveness Score has declined over the past decade, with other countries catching up in most dimensions.
• Thailand's labor productivity in the agricultural sector is significantly lower than in non-agricultural sectors, and this gap has widened.

Policy Priorities

Three main pathways and a cross-cutting priority are proposed to ensure strong, inclusive, and sustainable growth:

1. Creating More and Better Jobs

   • Boost infrastructure investment.
   • Increase competition through free trade agreements and deregulation.
   • Enhance firm-level competitiveness and innovation through better technology absorption.

2. Providing More Support to the Bottom 40 Percent

   • Improve education and skills for the workforce.
   • Implement effective agricultural policies to boost productivity.
   • Build smarter social protection systems to support the poor and vulnerable.

3. Making Growth Greener and More Resilient

   • Manage natural resources and the environment.
   • Reduce vulnerability to natural disasters and climate change through better land zoning and management.
   • Promote energy efficiency and clean energy by implementing existing plans and commitments.

Cross-Cutting Priority

• Strengthening Institutional Capability: Enhancing the capacity of the public sector to implement reforms is essential for the success of the three pathways. This includes improving the quality of governance, bureaucratic efficiency, and the effectiveness of public policies.

Identified Opportunities and Risks

• Opportunities: There is potential for growth through targeted investments, improved social protection, and green development.
• Risks: Political instability, declining investment, regional disparities, and environmental degradation threaten future growth and social cohesion.

Conclusion

The SCD emphasizes that while Thailand has made significant progress in reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity, structural and institutional weaknesses now pose a risk to continued growth and inclusiveness. The proposed pathways and priorities aim to address these challenges and ensure that Thailand can revive its growth trajectory and secure prosperity for all.