国际清算银行-保持冷静，继续前行：恐慌驱动的银行挤兑与公众沟通的作用（英）-2023.9-61页_1mb

Bank Runs and Public Communication Effects Summary

Main Findings

• SVB Collapse Impact: Information about SVB's collapse increases households' propensity to withdraw deposits by altering risk perception and expected recovery rates. Households reallocate deposits primarily to other banks and cash, with minimal spending effects.
• Policy Communication Effectiveness: FDIC insurance information and Federal Reserve statements significantly reduce withdrawal intentions by addressing expected losses. In contrast, political statements (e.g., Biden's) have limited impact, reinforcing political polarization in risk perceptions.
• Policy Implications: Policymakers can mitigate panic-driven runs through credible central bank communication and broader coverage of deposit insurance education. These strategies are crucial during banking crises.

Key Contributions

• Introduces information provision experiments to study household responses to banking crises.
• Documents substantial heterogeneity in withdrawal behavior based on bank type, account tenure, and political affiliation.
• Provides quantitative estimates on deposit reallocation and spending elasticity following heightened bank risk.

Institutionalization Effects

• Federal Reserve and FDIC statements reduce fear but face limitations in widespread credibility.
• Political messaging proves ineffective outside partisan bases, highlighting the role of institutional trust in crisis management.

Heterogeneity

• Bank Type: National bank users show stronger reactions to SVB news.
• Account Tenure: Recent depositors exhibit more responsive behavior, suggesting relationship effects.
• Demographics: Educational attainment and income level influence risk perception thresholds.

Methodology Notes

• Uses randomized controlled trials embedded in a household survey.
• Employs hypothetical scenarios and actual propensity measures for causal inference.
• Lags bank risk perception changes significantly between announcement and behavioral responses.