20260320-招银国际-伟仕佳杰-00856.HK-FY25_review_AI_compute_and_self-developed_products_maintain_strong_momentum_5页_821kb

VSTECS (856 HK) FY25 Review and Outlook Summary

Core Content Overview

VSTECS, a leading China-based IT distributor, reported its FY25 financial results, showing strong revenue and net profit growth. The company is maintaining a positive outlook with plans to further enhance its performance through investment in self-developed products and technology, and leveraging its operating leverage.

Key Financial Performance

FY25 Results

• Total Revenue: HK$97.6bn, up 10% YoY, slightly below Bloomberg consensus.
• Net Profit: HK$1.35bn, up 29% YoY, 5% above consensus, driven by effective opex control and higher-margin self-developed products.

Earnings Forecasts (FY26-28E)

• Revenue Growth: Expected to grow at a CAGR of 14.5% (FY26E: 111.7bn; FY27E: 126.0bn; FY28E: 140.7bn).
• Net Profit Growth: Projected to grow at a CAGR of 18.5% (FY26E: 1.7bn; FY27E: 1.98bn; FY28E: 2.3bn).
• EPS Growth: Expected to increase from HK$1.04 in FY25 to HK$1.43 in FY26E and HK$1.63 in FY28E.

Business Highlights

AI Compute Business

• Growth: Revenue from AI compute business surged by 29% YoY to HK$5.1bn.
• Key Clients: The company implemented several major computing power projects for State Grid and Shanghai JiaoTong University.
• Partnerships: Collaborated with Hygon, Cambricon, and MetaX to build a comprehensive domestic computing power ecosystem.
• International Growth: Revenue from Southeast Asia increased by 17% YoY to HK$35.8bn, representing 37% of total revenue, with a 30% YoY growth in computer power business.

Self-Developed Products

• R&D Investment: Plans to double R&D investment in FY26E, focusing on agentic AI, LLM service platform, and computing power operation capabilities.
• Revenue Projections: Self-developed products revenue is expected to grow by approximately 150% in FY26E, 120% in FY27E, and 90% in FY28E.

Margin Expansion and Shareholder Returns

• Net Margin: Increased to 1.5% in FY25 from 1.3% in FY24, supported by G&A cost control (-6% YoY).
• Dividend: Announced an annual dividend of HK$600mn, or HK$0.42 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 5%.

Valuation and Target Price

• Target Price: Revised to HK$14.00 based on 12x FY26E P/E, down from the previous HK$14.20 (15x FY25E P/E).
• Valuation Methodology: Based on 12x 2026E P/E, the target valuation is HK$19.427bn equity value, translating to HK$14.00 per share.
• Peer Comparison: Target P/E is in line with the average P/E of its peers.

Share Performance and Structure

• Market Cap: HK$10.9bn as of latest data.
• Shareholding: Li Jialin holds 41.6%, Eternal Asia holds 16.7%.
• Price Performance: 12-month price performance was -3.8% absolute and 0.8% relative.

Financial Summary (Selected Metrics)

Metric	FY23A	FY24A	FY25A	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E
Revenue Growth (%)	-4.4%	20.6%	9.6%	14.5%	12.8%	11.7%
Net Profit Growth (%)	12.0%	21.1%	28.6%	18.5%	16.2%	16.4%
Operating Margin	1.9%	1.9%	2.0%	2.1%	2.1%	2.1%
Net Margin	4.7%	4.5%	4.5%	1.5%	1.6%	1.6%
ROE	11.6%	13.1%	14.9%	15.6%	16.3%	16.8%

Analyst Recommendations

• Rating: BUY, with a target price of HK$14.00.
• Reasoning: Strong momentum in AI compute and self-developed products, solid earnings growth outlook, and effective cost management.

Risk and Disclaimer

• The report is for informational purposes only and not intended as investment advice.
• Past performance does not guarantee future results.
• CMBIGM is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on the information.
• The report may contain conflicts of interest due to potential business relationships.

Summary of Key Points

• VSTECS has demonstrated consistent revenue and profit growth.
• The AI compute segment is a key driver of growth, with strong international expansion.
• Self-developed products are expected to significantly boost revenue and margins.
• The company is maintaining a BUY rating with an updated target price.
• The financial health of the company is supported by strong liquidity and margin expansion.