Meituan (3690 HK) 1Q26 Results and Analysis Summary
Core Content
Meituan, a leading Chinese online platform, reported its 1Q26 financial results, which showed revenue of RMB91.0bn, aligning with both the analyst's and Bloomberg's consensus estimates. The adjusted net loss of RMB5.0bn was significantly better than the previously forecasted RMB6.9bn/6.8bn, indicating improved performance.
Main Points
1. Core Local Commerce (CLC) Performance
- Revenue: RMB64.1bn, flat YoY and in line with estimates.
- Operating Loss: RMB2.0bn, narrowing by 52%/53% compared to forecasts.
- Outlook: CLC is expected to turn to an operating profit of RMB3.0bn in 2Q26, driven by FD growth and more disciplined user subsidies.
- Peak Season Forecast: CLC revenue is projected to reach RMB68.9bn in 2Q26, with a YoY increase of 5.5%.
2. New Initiatives
- Revenue: RMB27.0bn, up 21.3% YoY, a faster growth rate than the previous quarter (18.9%).
- Operating Loss: RMB2.1bn, narrower than the consensus forecast of RMB2.6bn.
- Outlook: Revenue is expected to grow by 23% YoY in 2Q26, with an operating loss of RMB2.4bn.
3. Financial Summary
- Revenue Growth: Expected to be 10.8% YoY in 2026, with a slower pace than previous years.
- Net Profit: Projected to be RMB-9,254.5mn in 2026, but positive in 2027 and 2028.
- Adjusted Net Profit: RMB-2,477.0mn in 2026, improving to RMB26,723.9mn in 2027 and RMB44,159.2mn in 2028.
- EPS (Adjusted): Expected to be 439.75 RMB cents in 2027 and 726.65 RMB cents in 2028.
- P/E Ratio: 20.2x in 2027 and 10.9x in 2028.
Key Information
Revenue Projections
| Year |
Revenue (RMB mn) |
YoY Growth (%) |
| 2026E |
404,186 |
10.8% |
| 2027E |
461,742 |
14.2% |
| 2028E |
516,350 |
11.8% |
Operating Profit
| Year |
Operating Profit (RMB mn) |
YoY Growth (%) |
| 2026E |
-9,389 |
-27.3% |
| 2027E |
24,915 |
29.0% |
| 2028E |
46,093 |
85.0% |
Adjusted Net Profit
| Year |
Adjusted Net Profit (RMB mn) |
YoY Growth (%) |
| 2026E |
-2,477 |
-47.3% |
| 2027E |
26,723.9 |
65.2% |
| 2028E |
44,159.2 |
65.2% |
Valuation Metrics
| Metric |
2026E |
2027E |
2028E |
| P/E (x) |
ns |
20.2 |
10.9 |
| P/B |
2.8 |
2.4 |
1.9 |
| P/CFPS |
ns |
19.7 |
8.3 |
| EV/Sales |
1.7 |
1.5 |
1.2 |
Target Price and Recommendation
- Target Price: HK$138.00 (revised from HK$141.10)
- Valuation: Based on a DCF model with a WACC of 11.0% and terminal growth of 2.5%, translating into 28x and 17x 2027E/2028E adjusted PE.
- Analyst Recommendation: BUY, maintaining the potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months.
Forecast Revision
- Revenue Forecast Trim: 1% for 2026E due to slower FD revenue growth.
- Operating Loss and Non-IFRS Net Loss: Reduced by 27% and 43%, respectively, due to better-than-expected recovery in FD profitability and easing competition.
Shareholding and Stock Performance
- Market Cap: HK$475,529.9mn
- Average 3-Month Trading Volume: HK$4,160.0mn
- 52-Week High/Low: HK$148.40/HK$73.30
- Share Performance:
- 1-Month: -6.0%
- 3-Months: -3.6%
- 6-Months: -21.4%
Analysts
- Saiyi HE, CFA
- Ye TAO, CFA
- Wentao LU, CFA
- Shuyin GUO
Key Financial Highlights
- CLC Operating Margin: Improved from -6.8% to -3.2% in 1Q26.
- FD Operating Profitability: Returned to small-scale profitability in April and May.
- Unit Economics (UE): Meituan maintains a competitive advantage in UE over peers.
Risk and Disclaimer
- The report contains risks and is not suitable for all investors.
- CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- The report is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.
- The information is based on publicly available data and may be subject to change.
Conclusion
Meituan's 1Q26 results indicate a positive trend, with the CLC segment showing a significant narrowing of operating loss and the new initiatives segment experiencing accelerated revenue growth. The company's financial performance and valuation metrics suggest a potential recovery, with the DCF-based target price revised to HK$138.00 and a BUY recommendation maintained. The report highlights improved operating efficiency and strong consumer mindshare in the high-value food delivery market, which are expected to sustain Meituan's competitive position in the long term.
