2015年-世界发展银行全球_The_Effect_of_Government_Responsiveness_on_Future_Political_Participation_33页_1mb

Summary of "The Effect of Government Responsiveness on Future Political Participation"

Core Content

This working paper explores the relationship between government responsiveness and future political participation, focusing on a non-electoral form of engagement through the FixMyStreet (FMS) platform. The study uses a large dataset of 399,364 reports submitted by 154,957 unique individuals between 2007 and 2013 to analyze how the experience of government responsiveness affects continued participation in the platform.

Main Viewpoints

• Government Responsiveness and Political Participation: The paper argues that government responsiveness, or objective efficacy, significantly influences future political participation. It challenges the traditional focus on subjective perceptions of efficacy and instead emphasizes the importance of actual outcomes of participation.

• Calculus of Participation Model: A simplified model is introduced, inspired by classic turnout models, which suggests that individuals decide to participate based on the perceived reward (R), calculated as the product of the probability of impact (P), the benefit (B), and the cost (C) of participation. The model highlights that if the perceived probability of impact (P) is high, the likelihood of continued participation increases.

• Empirical Evidence from FMS: The study finds that a successful first experience on FMS—such as a reported problem being fixed—leads to a 54% increase in the probability of submitting a second report. Additionally, the experience of government responsiveness to the first report is predictive of all future report submissions.

• Endogeneity and Cut-off Issues: The paper acknowledges the potential for endogeneity, where users who mark their problems as fixed may be more engaged. To mitigate this, the analysis uses a restricted sample where only reports marked as fixed by others are considered. Cut-off periods are also tested to ensure the causal relationship between first report resolution and subsequent participation is accurately captured.

Key Information

Data Description

• The dataset includes 399,364 reports from 154,957 users.
• The average number of reports per user is 2.58, with a median of 1.
• The most common problem categories are potholes (23.5%), roads/highways (10.5%), and street lighting (10.1%).
• Only 11.7% of reports include a photo.
• On average, it takes 66 days for a report to be marked as fixed, with variations depending on who reports the fix (users, councils, or other citizens).

Methodology

• Short-Term Model: A binary logistic regression model is used to analyze the effect of the first report being fixed on the likelihood of submitting a second report within 35 to 365 days.
• Long-Term Model: A negative binomial regression model is employed to assess the effect of the first report being fixed on the total number of reports submitted in the same period.
• Control Variables: The models include control variables such as the date of the first report, whether a photo was attached, and local authority dummies to account for time trends and user engagement.

Findings

• A positive experience of government responsiveness (e.g., a problem being fixed) is associated with a 54% increase in the probability of submitting a second report.
• The experience of government responsiveness to the first report has predictive power over all future report submissions.
• The study shows that incidentally collected data can be valuable in examining individual-level participatory behavior.
• The use of a restricted sample and varying cut-off periods helps to ensure the validity of the causal relationship.

Implications

• The findings support the idea that government responsiveness plays a crucial role in fostering an active citizenry.
• The study highlights the importance of using real-time, incidentally collected data to better understand the mechanisms behind political participation.
• It suggests that future research and policy should focus on improving government responsiveness to enhance citizen engagement in local governance.

Conclusion

This paper contributes to the literature on participatory democracy by demonstrating the impact of objective efficacy on continued political participation. The analysis of the FMS platform provides empirical evidence that can inform the design of more responsive and participatory governance systems.