2012年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_The_Rubik_Cube_of_the_Wider_Middle_East_230页_2mb

Summary of The Rubik Cube of the Wider Middle East by Michael Emerson and Nathalie Tocci

Core Content

This report by Michael Emerson and Nathalie Tocci, with a preface by Chris Patten, explores the complex and interlinked crises in the Wider Middle East and proposes a comprehensive strategy for addressing them. It emphasizes the need for a coherent and integrated approach by the international community, particularly the West, to achieve peace and stability in the region.

Main Crises and Challenges

The report identifies four major crises in the Wider Middle East:

1. The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict – A long-standing issue that continues to fuel violence and instability.
2. Al Qaeda Terrorism – A threat that has roots in the region's political and economic conditions.
3. The Iraq Crisis – A pivotal moment that could reshape the region's future.
4. The Development Crisis – Encompassing the region's social, economic, and political challenges.

The report argues that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is central to the broader stability of the region and that without a resolution, peace and democracy in the Arab world will remain elusive.

Key Issues in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

One-State Solutions

• Cantonisation/Bantustanisation: Israel's policy of dividing the West Bank into isolated areas, with the construction of fences and settlements, is seen as a de facto one-state approach.
• Transfer/Expulsion: A controversial idea of removing the Palestinian population from the West Bank, which has support among some Israelis but is widely considered implausible due to international opposition and the influence of U.S. policy.
• Single Democratic State: A return to this idea is considered unlikely, as it would place Jews in a minority, which is unacceptable to Israel.

Two-State Solutions

• Separation, Fence and Withdrawal: A popular Israeli view, but criticized for not offering a comprehensive resolution.
• Bilaterally Negotiated Solution: There has been some progress in negotiations, but trust between the parties remains low, and a political solution is unlikely without a major shift in strategies.
• Multilaterally Pushed Solution: The Quartet's Roadmap proposes a three-year plan, but its lack of clarity on borders and conditional withdrawal has been a point of criticism.

One Confederation, Multiple States

• A confederated system involving Israel and its neighbors, potentially leading to a Mashreq Confederation, is proposed as a long-term solution.
• This model would allow for shared policies on economic development and confidence-building, while maintaining state sovereignty.

Western Strategies and Ideologies

The report outlines three broad Western ideologies that could guide policy in the region:

1. Strategic Realism: Prioritizes security threats over political systems, with the U.S. focusing on military interventions and regime change.
2. Democratic Transformation: Encourages political, social, and economic change in the region, with the EU emphasizing long-term development and support for human rights.
3. Harmony of Cultures and Regional Integration: Seeks to promote stability through cooperation and respect for diverse cultures, particularly in the Holy Land.

The U.S. tends to favor the first two ideologies, while the EU leans more towards the third. However, the report suggests that both can be complementary in addressing the region's multifaceted challenges.

Regional Cooperation and EU Role

The report highlights the importance of regional cooperation, drawing on past initiatives such as the Madrid Process and Barcelona Process. It calls for a renewed multilateral approach, building on these experiences, and suggests the creation of a Euro-Mashreq Community to support a regional confederation.

The EU is positioned to lead such efforts through its post-enlargement 'neighbourhood policy', emphasizing economic development, security cooperation, and democratic reforms. It also advocates for a stronger and more integrated approach to the Wider Middle East, combining political, economic, and security strategies.

Key Findings

• The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a critical factor in the region's instability and must be resolved to enable broader peace and development.
• The Quartet's Roadmap is seen as a potential framework for a more forceful and accelerated resolution, but it lacks clarity and is vulnerable to political and security challenges.
• The Arab Peace Initiative and Palestinian Vision of Peace are presented as key elements in the peace process, though they face significant political and practical hurdles.
• Public opinion indicates strong support for peace based on 1967 borders and an end to violence, but political will remains lacking.
• The EU's role is crucial in promoting regional stability and cooperation, and it has the potential to complement U.S. efforts through its focus on human rights, democracy, and economic development.

Conclusion

The report concludes that a coherent and integrated Western strategy is necessary to address the multifaceted crises in the Wider Middle East. It calls for a comprehensive approach that includes political, economic, and security dimensions, and for the international community to play a more active and supportive role in the region's transformation. The Rubik's Cube metaphor is used to illustrate the need for a balanced and multi-dimensional strategy across all three regions (Maghreb, Mashreq, and the Gulf), and all three major external actors (the U.S., Europe, and international organizations).